Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Noise and aggregation of information in large markets

We study a novel class of noisy rational expectations equilibria in markets with largenumber of agents. We show that, as long as noise increases with the number of agents inthe economy, the limiting competitive equilibrium is well-defined and leads to non-trivialinformation acquisition, perfect information aggregation, and partially revealing prices,even if per capita noise tends to zero. We find that in such equilibrium risk sharing and price revelation play dierent roles than in the standard limiting economy in which per capita noise is not negligible. We apply our model to study information sales by a monopolist, information acquisition in multi-asset markets, and derivatives trading. Thelimiting equilibria are shown to be perfectly competitive, even when a strategic solutionconcept is used.

Some hypothesis tests for the covariance matrix when the dimension is large compared to the sample size

This paper analyzes whether standard covariance matrix tests work whendimensionality is large, and in particular larger than sample size. Inthe latter case, the singularity of the sample covariance matrix makeslikelihood ratio tests degenerate, but other tests based on quadraticforms of sample covariance matrix eigenvalues remain well-defined. Westudy the consistency property and limiting distribution of these testsas dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, with theirratio converging to a finite non-zero limit. We find that the existingtest for sphericity is robust against high dimensionality, but not thetest for equality of the covariance matrix to a given matrix. For thelatter test, we develop a new correction to the existing test statisticthat makes it robust against high dimensionality.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Recent evidence from Spanish regions

In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population),immigration increased by 24% the number of high school dropouts while only increasingcollege graduates by 11%. We study different channels by which regional labor markets haveabsorbed the large increase in relative supply of low educated workers. We identify theexogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin.Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion ofemployment in high immigration regions. Disaggregating by industry, the absorption operatedthrough large increases in the share of low-educated workers, compared to the same industry inlow-immigration regions. We do not find changes in sectoral specialization. Overall, andperhaps surprisingly, the pattern of absorption is very similar to the one found in the US.

The quasi-judicial role of large retailers: An efficiency hypothesis of their relation with suppliers

The paper explores an efficiency hypothesis regarding the contractual process between large retailers, such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour, and their suppliers. The empirical evidence presented supports the idea that large retailers play a quasi-judicial role, acting as "courts of first instance" in their relationships with suppliers. In this role, large retailers adjust the terms of trade to on-going changes and sanction performance failures, sometimes delaying payments. A potential abuse of their position is limited by the need for re-contracting and preserving their reputations. Suppliers renew their confidence in their retailers on a yearly basis, through writing new contracts. This renovation contradicts the alternative hypothesis that suppliers are expropriated by large retailers as a consequence of specific investments.

La zonación estructural del hercínico del Pirineo Central en el anticlinorio de la Pallaresa

The Pyrenees are an alpine chain with hercynian basement rocks that outcrop in a large area called the Axial Zone. These rocks have been involved in the alpine deformation events although their main structural features resulted from the Hercynian orogeny. A relevant characteristic of the Hercynian basement is a change in structural style in depth which has been commonly studied and interpreted in the Pallaresa Anticlinorium, in the Central Pyrenees. This anticlinorium is a complex hercynian structural unit whose southern part belongs to the suprastructure whereas the northern part corresponds mostly to a transition zone between the infrastructure and the suprastructure. Rocks of the suprastructure show a steeply dipping slaty cleavage as the dominant structure, which is overprinting folds and thrusts rarely going with pervasive deformation. The transition zone results from a slaty cleavage, very often close to the bedding, overprinted by one or two steep crenulation cleavages. A gradual boundary exists between both structural levels and it can be observed that the deformation developing slaty cleavage in the suprastructure grades to a crenulation foliation in the transition zone. The gradual character of that boundary, as seen in the northern end of the transition zone, suggests that the southern sharp boundary is not original. That boundary is interpreted as a northward dipping inverse fault, possibly with Alpine age. That fault causes a relative uplift of the rocks of the transition zone and gives this sharp boundary with the suprastructural levels. It provokes the asymmetry in the Pallaresa anticlinorium

Improving college access and success for low-income students: Evidence from a large need-based grant program

Using comprehensive administrative data on France's single largest financialaid program, this paper provides new evidence on the impact of large-scaleneed-based grant programs on the college enrollment decisions, persistenceand graduation rates of low-income students. We exploit sharp discontinuitiesin the grant eligibility formula to identify the impact of aid on student outcomesat different levels of study. We find that eligibility for an annual cashallowance of 1,500 euros increases college enrollment rates by up to 5 percentagepoints. Moreover, we show that need-based grants have positive effectson student persistence and degree completion.

Análisis de viabilidad técnica-económica del parque eólico Altos de Peralta

RESUMEN La energia eolica se considera una forma indirecta de energia solar. Entre el 1 y 2% de la energia proveniente del sol se convierte en viento, debido al movimiento del aire ocasionado por el desigual calentamiento de la superficie terrestre. La energia cinetica del viento puede transformarse en energia util, tanto mecanica como electrica. La energia eolica, transformada en energia mecanica ha sido historicamente aprovechada, pero su uso para la generacion de energia electrica es mas reciente, en respuesta a la crisis del petroleo y a los impactos ambientales derivados del uso de combustibles. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es hacer un analisis de viabilidad desde un punto de vista tecnico y economico de un parque eolico situado en el municipio de Barasoain (Navarra). Desde el punto de vista tecnico se han estudiado los aspectos constructivos del parque considerando sus diferentes infraestructuras de obra civil y electrica asi como los niveles de recurso eolico. En el ambito economico y financiero se han analizado los aspectos y ratios mas relevantes que definen un proyecto de estas caracteristicas asi como el modelo de financiacion elegida basada en el Project- Finance. Entre las conclusiones mas destacadas de este proyecto cabe destacar la contribucion de la construccion del parque al desarrollo social y economico de la zona donde queda ubicado contribuyendo a la creacion de puestos de trabajo, tanto en la fase de construccion como de explotacion y una perfecta armonia con condicionantes medioambientales de la zona. El analisis tecnico realizado nos indica la viabilidad tecnica del parque tanto desde el punto de vista de recurso eolico como la idoneidad para poder evacuar la energia producida. Por otro lado, los resultados obtenidos cumplen perfectamente con los estandares requeridos por los financiadores de los parques y resultando ser muy atractivos para sus accionistas

Optimal management of microgrids

Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.. Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.

Creating large and accurate mosaics of the mid-atlantic ridge

We present an approach for creating image mosaics using navigation data consisting on 3D position estimates provided by sensors such as LBL available in deep water surveys. A central issue with acoustic 3D positioning is that the accuracy is far too low compositing the images within reasonable accuracy

Public infrastructure and the performance of manufacturing industries: short-and long-run

We present a theoretical framework for determining the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure. While the short-run effects have been the focus of most previous studies, here we derive long-run elasticities by taking into account the adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs to their optimum levels. By considering the impact of infrastructure on private investment decisions, we observe how, apart from the direct effect on costs in the short-run, infrastructure exerts an indirect source of influence in the long-run through their effect on private capital. The model is applied to manufacturing industries in the Spanish regions

Majority carrier capture cross section determination in the large deep trap concentration cases

A method to determine the thermal cross section of a deep level from capacitance measurements is reported. The results enable us to explain the nonexponential behavior of the capacitance versus capture time when the trap concentration is not negligible with respect to that of the shallow one, and the Debye tail effects are taken into account. A figure of merit for the nonexponential behavior of the capture process is shown and discussed for different situations of doping and applied bias. We have also considered the influence of the position of the trap level"s energy on the nonexponentiality of the capture transient. The experimental results are given for the gold acceptor level in silicon and for the DX center in Al0.55 Ga0.45As, which are in good agreement with the developed theory.

Public infrastructure and the performance of manufacturing industries: short-and long-run

We present a theoretical framework for determining the short- and long-run effects of infrastructure. While the short-run effects have been the focus of most previous studies, here we derive long-run elasticities by taking into account the adjustment of quasi-fixed inputs to their optimum levels. By considering the impact of infrastructure on private investment decisions, we observe how, apart from the direct effect on costs in the short-run, infrastructure exerts an indirect source of influence in the long-run through their effect on private capital. The model is applied to manufacturing industries in the Spanish regions