First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Improving social measurements: The experience of the ESS first rounds in Spain

With the two aims of monitoring social change and improving social measurement, the European Social Survey is now closing its third round. This paper shows how the accumulated experience of the two first rounds has been used to validate the questionnaire, better adapt the sampling design to the country characteristics and efficiently commit fieldwork in Spain. For example, the dynamic character of the population nowadays makes necessary to estimated design effects at each round from the data of the previous round. The paper also demonstrates how, starting with a response rate of 52% at first round, a 66% response rate is achieved at the third round thanks to an extensive quality control conducted by the polling agency and the ESS national team and based on a detailed analysis of the non-response cases and the incidences reported by the interviewed in the contact form.

The Spanish motor industry in the first third of the 20th Century: A lost opportunity

The Spanish automobile industry had a late start. Although the country proved capable of short production runs of high-quality vehicles during the first third of the century it never managed to build up its own industry, unlike Great Britain, France, or Italy. What then, were the critical shortcomings that prevented the establishment of large Spanish motor manufacturers? Put another way, why did all of the companies set up during the first half-century fail to survive? This paper attempts to shed some light on these questions, employing a wide-ranging analysis of both internal and external factors affecting the industry. A feeble internal market, lack of resources and production factors are usually adduced as reasons, as are Spain's general economic backwardness and the role played by the public authorities. However, this paper mainly focuses on the internal factors concerning company strategy and organisation. A comparison with the Italian case helps put the traditional arguments in proper perspective and highlights those covering business strategies. Finally, we argue that a broad range of factors needs to be analysed to fully understand why Spain failed to establish a motor industry.

Body size, activity, employment and wages in Europe: A first approach

This paper examines the associations between obesity, employment status and wages for several European countries. Our results provide weak evidence that obese workers are more likely to be unemployed or tend to be more segregated in self-employment jobs than their non-obese counterparts. We also find difficult to detect statistically significant relationships between obesity and wages. As previously reported in the literature, the association between obesity, unemployment and wages seems to be different for men and women. Moreover, heterogeneity is also found across countries. Such heterogeneity can be somewhat explained by some labor market institutions, such as the collective bargaining coverage and the employer-provided health insurance.

First price auctions: Monotonicity and uniqueness

I study monotonicity and uniqueness of the equilibrium strategies in a two-person first price auction with affiliated signals. I show thatwhen the game is symmetric there is a unique Nash equilibrium thatsatisfies a regularity condition requiring that the equilibrium strategies be{\sl piecewise monotone}. Moreover, when the signals are discrete-valued, the equilibrium is unique. The central part of the proof consists of showing that at any regular equilibrium the bidders' strategies must be monotone increasing within the support of winning bids. The monotonicity result derived in this paper provides the missing link for the analysis of uniqueness in two-person first price auctions. Importantly, this result extends to asymmetric auctions.

The role of Mexico in the first oil shortage: 1918-1922, an international perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of world s petroleum, making the country the secondlargest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of world sproduction. To date the discussion has mostly relied on events taking place in Mexico forexplaining the decline of the industry. Very little attention has been placed todevelopments in petroleum industry elsewhere, except Venezuela. Practically noattention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. This neglectsthe massive changes taking place in the petroleum industry worldwide during the GreatWar years and its aftermath, and overall ignores the shortage of oil that occurred in theworld s markets between 1918-1921. These are crucial events in order to understand theearly rise of the Mexican oil industry and set the basis for a better understanding of thesubsequent sudden decline.

On the spread of the European catfish (Silurus glanis) in the Iberian Peninsula: first record in the Llobregat river basin

The first record of the European catfish (Silurus glanis L. 1758) introduced to the Llobregat river basin (NE Spain) is reported. We captured one individual of this silurid fish species (of a total of 541 fish) in La Baells reservoir on 30 August 2006. Given the low catchability of this fish species, the popularity among some anglers, and old rumours on this introduction, we hypothesize that this species has been present in the reservoir since a few years ago, despite we did not capture it in two previous surveys. The illegal introduction of this and other exotic species to other Iberian river basins should be prevented by the Spanish administration

Preliminary report of the first season work of the International Pluridisciplinary Archaeological Expedition to Bactria 2007

A prior long-term and complex evaluation of the already available data on the geophysical prospecting during the first season work carried out at 2006, at the archaeological site of Tchinguiz Tepe of Termez, took place to decide the strategy to follow during the campaign of 2007. This previous evaluation of the information, on one hand, leaded to the decision to increase the geophysical prospecting at Tchinguiz Tepe, on the other hand, to decide the exact location of areas where the archaeological interventions.would carry out. The main objective at the beginning of this new season was to crosscheck the reliabilityof the measurements and, at the same time, to establish the unknown up to the present archaeologicaland chronological sequence of Tchinguiz Tepe. Meanwhile, the geophysical prospecting also wasextended to the outskirts of the city were the localisation of an unknown up to now Buddhist Monasterywas possible.

Preliminary report of the first season work of the International Pluridisciplinary Archaeological Expedition to Bactria 2006

The International Pluridisciplinary Archaeological Expedition in Bactria (IPAEB) was created in 2006.The name underlines the international character of the team (which includes Uzbeks, Spanish, French, British and Greek members), the presence of specialists from various fields apart from archaeology and the fame of Bactria1.

Preliminary report of the first season work of the International Pluridisciplinary Archaeological Expedition to Bactria 2008

This year the development of our project can be divided into two main clearly different parts, on one hand the laboratory work, where the sampled ceramic individuals has been prepared and analyzed and the elaboration of the data obtained during the excavation of 2007 has been finished and, on the other hand, the field work developed at the archaeological site during this specific year (2008).In the mark of the analytical work a significant number of ceramic individuals (144) from the different stratigraphical units from various areas of the excavation of Termez and Tchinguiz Tepe sampled duringthe new and previous field works has been archaeometrically characterized. This specific material includedindividuals dated into the Hellenistic and Sassanian period, which has been confirmed by C14dating upon organic samples.At the same time, in the mark of the field work of 2008 the archaeological record, already started tobe under study during the excavation of 2007, has been completed and two new archaeological recordshave been registered on of which is located in the area of Tchinguiz Tepe. For the archeological studythe information of the previous geophysical prospecting has been indisputably taken into considerationand the same methodology has been applied to crosscheck the latter archaeological results.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

The First privatization : selling SOEs and privatizing public monopolies in fascist Italy, 1922-1925

[cat] El primer govern feixista d’Itàlia va aplicar una política de privatització a gran escala entre 1922 i 1925. El govern va privatitzar el monopoli estatal de llumins, el monopoli estatal d’assegurances de vida, va vendre la major part de la xarxa i serveis de telefònica pública a empreses privades, va reprivatitzar el major productor de productes metàl·lics, i va atorgar concessions a empreses privades per construir i explotar autopistes de peatge. Tot i que algunes consideracions ideològiques van poder tenir alguna influència, la privatització va ser usada sobre tot com un instrument polític per construir confiança amb els grans industrials i per augmentar el suport al govern i al Partito Nazionale Fascista. La privatització també va contribuir a equilibrar el pressupost públic, qüestió aquesta que va ser el principal objectiu de la primera fase de la política econòmica feixista.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed