Calibration of CES functions for real-world multisectoral modeling

We show how to calibrate CES production and utility functions when indirect taxation affecting inputs and consumption is present. These calibrated functions can then be used in computable general equilibrium models. Taxation modifies the standard calibration procedures since any taxed good has two associated prices and a choice of reference value units has to be made. We also provide an example of computer code to solve the calibration of CES utilities under two alternate normalizations. To our knowledge, this paper fills a methodological gap in the CGE literature.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Government information transparency

This paper studies a model of announcements by a privately informed government about the future state of the economic activity in an economy subject to recurrent shocks and with distortions due to income taxation. Although transparent communication would ex ante be desirable, we find that even a benevolent government may ex-post be non-informative, in an attempt to countervail the tax distortion with a "second best" compensating distortion in information. This result provides a rationale for independent national statistical offices, committed to truthful communication. We also find that whether inequality in income distribution favors or harms government transparency depends on labor supply elasticity.

Devolution dynamics of Spanish local government

Over the last few years, ther has been a devolutionary tendency in many developed and developing countries. In this article we propose a methodology to decompose whether the benefits in terms of effciency derived from transfers of powers from higher to municipal levels of government "the "economic dividend" of devolution) might increase over time. This methodology is based on linear programming approaches for effciency measurement. We provide anapplication to Spanish municipalities, which have had to adapt to both the European Stability and Growth Pact as well as to domestic regulation seeking local governments balanced budget. Results indicate that efficiency gains from enhaced decentralization have increased over time. However, the way through which these gains accrue differs across municipalities -in some cases technical change is the main component, whereas in others catching up dominates.

Materials web de fiscalitat enfocats per competències per a fomentar l'aprenentatge autònom

La finalitat principal del projecte consisteix en el disseny d'un material web mitjançant el qual els estudiants puguin anar desenvolupant i perfeccionant les diferents competències de les assignatures que conformen l'àrea de fiscalitat del Grau de Dret. Per a desenvolupar aquest material web s’ha fet servir la plataforma virtual Moodle. Concretament, el projecte s’ha centrat en una assignatura de fiscalitat del Grau de Dret, tot i que els resultats obtinguts són perfectament traslladables a qualsevol assignatura del Grau de Dret o postgrau en matèries jurídiques. El pla de treball del projecte ha consistit en desenvolupar un material web enfocat per competències, mitjançant les eines disponibles a la plataforma Moodle en una assignatura de fiscalitat i analitzar les seves possibilitats i característiques, especialment pel que fa a la planificació docent i l’avaluació de l’aprenentatge, així com comprovar el nivell de satisfacció dels estudiants mitjançant la realització d’unes enquestes.

Activitats d'autoavaluació de fiscalitat enfocades per competències

En el curs acadèmic 2007-2008 s'ha implementat l’autoavaluació formativa en les assignatures de Dret Financer i Tributari I i II de la Llicenciatura en Dret de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, com a conseqüència del Projecte de millora de la qualitat docent concedit per l'AGAUR l’any 2006. Es tracta d'unes assignatures en les quals se segueix des del curs acadèmic 2004-2005 un sistema d’avaluació continua enfocada per competències, amb molt bona acollida tant pels docents com pels estudiants. Mitjançant aquesta experiència docent, ideada com a complement de l’avaluació contínua, i que consisteix en l'elaboració d'activitats d’autoavaluació formativa de diferent tipologia enfocades per competències, es pretén ajudar l’estudiant a desenvolupar i millorar les competències d'ambdues assignatures de forma autònoma en el marc de l'Espai Europeu d’Educació Superior.

Simulating the Impact of Sectorial Productivity Gains on Two Regional Economies: Key Sectors from a Supply Side Perspective

In this paper we simulate and analyse the economic impact that sectorial productivity gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular we study the quantitative effect that each sector’s productivity gain has on household welfare (real disposable income and equivalent variation), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government’s net income (net taxation revenues of social transfers to households). The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which we assume perfect competition and cleared markets, including factor markets. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow us to identify those sectors with the greatest impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: Productivity gains, key sectors, computable general equilibrium

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

Stockholder conflicts and dividends

Conflicts of interest between majority and minority stockholders affect a large proportion of firms in any economy, but has received little attention in the empirical literature. We examine the link between the potential for such conflicts and the firm's payout policy on a large sample of Norwegian private firms with controlling stockholders and detailed ownership data. Our evidence shows that the stronger the potential conflict between the stockholders, the higher the proportion of earnings paid out as dividends. This tendency to reduce stockholder conflicts by dividend payout is more pronounced when the minority is diffuse and when a family's majority block is held by a single family member. We also find evidence that a minority-friendly payout policy is associated with higher future minority investment in the firm. These results are consistent with the notion that potential agency costs of ownership are mitigated by dividend policy when the majority stockholder benefits from not exploiting the minority.

Experiències catalanes, angleses i irlandeses en el millorament de l’accès a l’habitatge

El Grup de Recerca d´Accés a l´Habitatge de la Universitat Rovira i Virgili ha portat a terme durant l´any 2011 una sèrie d´activitats gràcies a l´ajuda concedida per la convocatòria de l´AGAUR PBR-DGR 2010, que ha donat suport al Grup tant de forma directa (per exemple, en viatges i dietes) com indirecta (gràcies a l´ajuda prestada per la Sra. Helaine Cristina Madeira Santos, becària de suport al Grup de Recerca, que ha portat a terme tasques de coordinació i investigació). Així, el Grup ha portat a terme tasques d´investigació (per exemple, la signatura d´un Conveni amb l’Agència de l’Habitatge de Catalunya amb la finalitat de portar a terme en el termini de 3 anys l’elaboració d´un marc legislatiu sobre les tinences intermitges en el Dret català); tasques de formació (gràcies a la participació en Congressos i Jornades); esta coordinant una xarxa sobre grups d´habitatge (per exemple, mitjançant un Congrés internacional sobre habitatge celebrat a Granada); ha publicat llibres i articles científics (per exemple, la publicació dels treballs presentats en les III Jornades Internacionals de Housing de 2010); i finalment cal destacar que l´activitat del Grup ha tingut un gran impacte en els mitjans de comunicació. Tot aquest treball ha permès al Grup arribar a unes conclusions sobre el status quo de l´habitatge a Espanya, per exemple les mancances del mercat d´habitatge en propietat i en lloguer i els aspectes que cal reformar quant al règim tributari i processal d´aquestes formes de tinença immobiliària. La principal conclusió, però, és la necessitat de regular noves formes d´entendre la tinença de la terra tot seguint els models ja presents en altres països europeus (principalment, Anglaterra i Irlanda), com la propietat compartida i la propietat temporal, figures en les quals està aprofundint actualment el Grup de recerca.

On Globalization and the Growth of Governments

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

State capacity and military conflict

In 1500, Europe was composed of hundreds of statelets and principalities, with weak central authority,no monopoly over the legitimate use of violence, and overlapping jurisdictions. By 1800, only ahandful of powerful, centralized nation states remained. We build a model that explains both the emergenceof capable states and growing divergence between European powers. We argue that the impactof war was crucial for state building, and depended on: i) the financial cost of war, and ii) a country sinitial level of domestic political fragmentation. We emphasize the role of the "Military Revolution",which raised the cost of war. Initially, this caused more cohesive states to invest in state capacity, whilemore divided states rationally dropped out of the competition, causing divergence between Europeanstates. As the cost of war escalated further, all states engaged in a "race to the top" towards greater statebuilding.