Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Beyond Smith's rule: An optimal dynamic index, rule for single machine stochastic scheduling with convex holding costs

Most research on single machine scheduling has assumedthe linearity of job holding costs, which is arguablynot appropriate in some applications. This motivates ourstudy of a model for scheduling $n$ classes of stochasticjobs on a single machine, with the objective of minimizingthe total expected holding cost (discounted or undiscounted). We allow general holding cost rates that are separable,nondecreasing and convex on the number of jobs in eachclass. We formulate the problem as a linear program overa certain greedoid polytope, and establish that it issolved optimally by a dynamic (priority) index rule,whichextends the classical Smith's rule (1956) for the linearcase. Unlike Smith's indices, defined for each class, ournew indices are defined for each extended class, consistingof a class and a number of jobs in that class, and yieldan optimal dynamic index rule: work at each time on a jobwhose current extended class has larger index. We furthershow that the indices possess a decomposition property,as they are computed separately for each class, andinterpret them in economic terms as marginal expected cost rate reductions per unit of expected processing time.We establish the results by deploying a methodology recentlyintroduced by us [J. Niño-Mora (1999). "Restless bandits,partial conservation laws, and indexability. "Forthcomingin Advances in Applied Probability Vol. 33 No. 1, 2001],based on the satisfaction by performance measures of partialconservation laws (PCL) (which extend the generalizedconservation laws of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996)):PCL provide a polyhedral framework for establishing theoptimality of index policies with special structure inscheduling problems under admissible objectives, which weapply to the model of concern.

The wage effect of an indexation clause: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

An endogenous switching model of ex-ante wage changes under indexed and non-indexed settlements is estimated for the Spanish manufacturing sector using collective bargaining firm data for the 1984-1991 period. The likelihood of indexing the settlement is higher for nationwide unions than for other union groups within the works council and increases with the expected level of inflation. For wage change equations, a common structure for indexed and non-indexed settlements is strongly rejected, showing a source of nominal rigidity. For indexed contracts, the expected ex-ante total inflation coverage is nearly complete. It is also shown that workers pay a significant ex-ante wage change premium (differential) to obtain a cost of living allowance clause. However, the realised contingent compensation exceeds such a premium for all industries. Finally, important spillover effects in wage setting and the decision to index the settlement have been detected.

A house price index defined in the potential outcomes framework

Current methods for constructing house price indices are based on comparisons of sale prices of residential properties sold two or more times and on regression of the sale prices on the attributes of the properties and of their locations. The two methods have well recognised deficiencies, selection bias and model assumptions, respectively. We introduce a new method based on propensity score matching. The average house prices for two periods are compared by selecting pairs of properties, one sold in each period, that are as similar on a set of available attributes (covariates) as is feasible to arrange. The uncertainty associated with such matching is addressed by multiple imputation, framing the problem as involving missing values. The method is applied to aregister of transactions ofresidential properties in New Zealand and compared with the established alternatives.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.

Income and body mass index in Europe

The problem of obesity is alarming public health authorities around the world. Therefore, it is important to study its determinants. In this paper we explore the empirical relationship between household income and body mass index (BMI) in nine European Union countries. Our findings suggest that the association is negative for women, but we find no statistically significant relationship for men. However, we show that the different relationship for men and women appears to be driven by the negative relationship for women between BMI and individual income from work. We tentatively conclude that the negative relationship between household income and BMI for women may simply be capturing the wage penalty that obese women suffer in the labor market.

Anàlisi de les revistes indexades al Journal of Citation Reports del Social Science Citation Index. Període 1997-2005

En aquest estat de la qüestió, s’hi presenten els resultats d’una anàlisi sobre l’evolució i les característiques principals de les revistes de geografia incloses al Journal of Citation Reports dins de la versió del Social Science Citation Index i, per tant, amb factor d’impacte. El període d’estudi escollit ha estat el que va de 1997 a 2005, és a dir, al llarg dels darrers nou anys amb dades disponibles. En total, hi han aparegut incloses trenta-nou revistes, una bona part de les quals ha romàs a la llista durant tot el temps estudiat. Hi ha hagut deu publicacions que han estat situades entre les cinc amb més factor d’impacte de cada any, i cap no ha estat la primera més de dos anys seguits. S’han trobat divuit temàtiques diferents en el conjunt de les revistes, en destaquen les de caire generalista i les de geografia econòmica i regional. Una gran majoria dels volums està publicada per editorials, Blackwell Publishing n’és la més destacada. L’origen de les revistes és clarament anglosaxó, només n’hi trobem dues d’escrites en una altra llengua. La segona part de l’article descriu totes les publicacions contemplades en els nou anys estudiats, amb una petita ressenya de cadascuna

Maximum-likelihood estimation of specific differential phase and attenuation in rain

Precise estimation of propagation parameters inprecipitation media is of interest to improve the performanceof communications systems and in remote sensing applications.In this paper, we present maximum-likelihood estimators ofspecific attenuation and specific differential phase in rain. Themodel used for obtaining the cited estimators assumes coherentpropagation, reflection symmetry of the medium, and Gaussianstatistics of the scattering matrix measurements. No assumptionsabout the microphysical properties of the medium are needed.The performance of the estimators is evaluated through simulateddata. Results show negligible estimators bias and variances closeto Cramer–Rao bounds.

Second differential of the entropy as a criterion for the stability in low-dimensional climate models

The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

A noninvasive method for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow by tracking moving refractive index anomalies

Diffuse flow velocimetry (DFV) is introduced as a new, noninvasive, optical technique for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The technique uses images of a motionless, random medium (e.g.,rocks) obtained through the lens of a moving refraction index anomaly (e.g., a hot upwelling). The method works in two stages. First, the changes in apparent background deformation are calculated using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The deformation vectors are determined by a cross correlation of pixel intensities across consecutive images. Second, the 2-D velocity field is calculated by cross correlating the deformation vectors between consecutive PIV calculations. The accuracy of the method is tested with laboratory and numerical experiments of a laminar, axisymmetric plume in fluids with both constant and temperaturedependent viscosity. Results show that average RMS errors are ∼5%–7% and are most accurate in regions of pervasive apparent background deformation which is commonly encountered in regions of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The method is applied to a 25 s video sequence of diffuse flow from a small fracture captured during the Bathyluck’09 cruise to the Lucky Strike hydrothermal field (September 2009). The velocities of the ∼10°C–15°C effluent reach ∼5.5 cm/s, in strong agreement with previous measurements of diffuse flow. DFV is found to be most accurate for approximately 2‐D flows where background objects have a small spatial scale, such as sand or gravel

Valoracion del Impacto de la Informacion en Internet: Altavista, el 'Citation Index' de la red

En el presente artículo se recoge una metodología para la valoración del impacto de la información en Internet, usando las capacidades de indización y recuperación del buscador Altavista. Se aprovecha el contexto para describir la función de los metaelementos del HTML como mecanismo de estructuración y ordenación de la información. Se discuten las limitaciones y fiabilidad del método y se exponen algunos datos que muestran la producción de páginas WWW a nivel de institución y a nivel nacional, así como su comparación con otros países europeos. Se hace especial hincapié en la posibilidad de medir el impacto de estas páginas en función de las veces que son 'enlazadas' desde páginas externas de manera similar a como funciona el 'Citation Index' del Institute for Scientific Information.

Differential regulation of RasGAPs in cancer

Ever since their discovery as cellular counterparts of viral oncogenes more than 25 years ago, much progress has been made in understanding the complex networks of signal transduction pathways activated by oncogenic Ras mutations in human cancers. The activity of Ras is regulated by nucleotide exchange factors (GEFs) and GTPase activating proteins (GAPs), and much emphasis has been put into the biochemical and structural analysis of the Ras/GAP complex. The mechanisms by which GAPs catalyze Ras-GTP hydrolysis have been clarified and revealed that oncogenic Ras mutations confer resistance to GAPs and remain constitutively active. However, it is yet unclear how cells coordinate the large and divergent GAP protein family to promote Ras inactivation and ensure a certain biological response. Different domain arrangements in GAPs to create differential protein-protein and protein-lipid interactions are probably key factors determining the inactivation of the 3 Ras isoforms H-, K-, and N-Ras and their effector pathways. In recent years, in vitro as well as cell- and animal-based studies examining GAP activity, localization, interaction partners, and expression profiles have provided further insights into Ras inactivation and revealed characteristics of several GAPs to exert specific and distinct functions. This review aims to summarize knowledge on the cell biology of RasGAP proteins that potentially contributes to differential regulation of spatiotemporal Ras signaling.

A T42A Ran Mutation: Differential Interactions with Effectors and Regulators, and Defect in Nuclear Protein Import

Ran, the small, predominantly nuclear GTPase, has been implicated in the regulation of a variety of cellular processes including cell cycle progression, nuclear-cytoplasmic trafficking of RNA and protein, nuclear structure, and DNA synthesis. It is not known whether Ran functions directly in each process or whether many of its roles may be secondary to a direct role in only one, for example, nuclear protein import. To identify biochemical links between Ran and its functional target(s), we have generated and examined the properties of a putative Ran effector mutation, T42A-Ran. T42A-Ran binds guanine nucleotides as well as wild-type Ran and responds as well as wild-type Ran to GTP or GDP exchange stimulated by the Ran-specific guanine nucleotide exchange factor, RCC1. T42A-Ran·GDP also retains the ability to bind p10/NTF2, a component of the nuclear import pathway. In contrast to wild-type Ran, T42A-Ran·GTP binds very weakly or not detectably to three proposed Ran effectors, Ran-binding protein 1 (RanBP1), Ran-binding protein 2 (RanBP2, a nucleoporin), and karyopherin ß (a component of the nuclear protein import pathway), and is not stimulated to hydrolyze bound GTP by Ran GTPase-activating protein, RanGAP1. Also in contrast to wild-type Ran, T42A-Ran does not stimulate nuclear protein import in a digitonin permeabilized cell assay and also inhibits wild-type Ran function in this system. However, the T42A mutation does not block the docking of karyophilic substrates at the nuclear pore. These properties of T42A-Ran are consistent with its classification as an effector mutant and define the exposed region of Ran containing the mutation as a probable effector loop.