108 resultados para conditional CAPM


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The aim of this paper is to discuss the circumstances in which the process of competition between ports takes place in Spain − circumstances arising from the way the port system is currently set up and from the regulations governing it. The importance of this matter lies both in the fact that intensified competition between ports is the way to set about boosting the efficiency of the Spanish port sector and in the relevance of this business to the economies of the regions in which the ports are located. It is precisely for this reason that the reform instituted in 1992 aimed to combine balanced development of the national port system with the defence of the interests of autonomous regions. To this end the current regulatory framework provides for the possibility of port authorities drawing up their own competitive strategies, but makes their implementation conditional upon approval of their business plan by the Spanish state port authority. The latter body coordinates the national port system to ensure the guidelines set by the central government authorities are followed in the field of transport. However, the scale of the differences which exist among both the size of facilities and their relevant markets on the one hand, and the financial and economic circumstances of each of them on the other, suggest that each port authority's needs must be very different. Consequently, their competitive strategies must also be very different. It is therefore valid to ask whether coping with this diversity calls for different guidelines to regulate their freedom of action. Key words: Competition, regulation, port sector JEL classification numbers: L1, L5, L9

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Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

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(INFINITIVE + CLITIC + AUX) is an evidential configuration in Old Spanish and Old Catalan, whereas (PARTICIPLE + CLITIC + AUX) is an instance of weak or unmarked focus fronting. The evidentiality of mesoclitic structures can be put forward on the bases of three main arguments: a) mesoclisis is not compulsory (i.e., whenever you have a clitic, you can either have mesoclisis or proclisis/enclisis); b) mesoclitic futures and conditionals areattested in interrogative sentences (with wh- elements); and c) they are not found in derived adverbial clauses (which is what you expect if they have an evidential value, since they bring about intervention effects corresponding to the derivational account of conditional and temporal sentences, for example - see Haegeman 2007 and ff.), and are related to high modal expressions (thus interfering with MoodPIrrealis)

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This analysis was stimulated by the real data analysis problem of householdexpenditure data. The full dataset contains expenditure data for a sample of 1224 households. The expenditure is broken down at 2 hierarchical levels: 9 major levels (e.g. housing, food, utilities etc.) and 92 minor levels. There are also 5 factors and 5 covariates at the household level. Not surprisingly, there are a small number of zeros at the major level, but many zeros at the minor level. The question is how best to model the zeros. Clearly, models that tryto add a small amount to the zero terms are not appropriate in general as at least some of the zeros are clearly structural, e.g. alcohol/tobacco for households that are teetotal. The key question then is how to build suitable conditional models. For example, is the sub-composition of spendingexcluding alcohol/tobacco similar for teetotal and non-teetotal households?In other words, we are looking for sub-compositional independence. Also, what determines whether a household is teetotal? Can we assume that it is independent of the composition? In general, whether teetotal will clearly depend on the household level variables, so we need to be able to model this dependence. The other tricky question is that with zeros on more than onecomponent, we need to be able to model dependence and independence of zeros on the different components. Lastly, while some zeros are structural, others may not be, for example, for expenditure on durables, it may be chance as to whether a particular household spends money on durableswithin the sample period. This would clearly be distinguishable if we had longitudinal data, but may still be distinguishable by looking at the distribution, on the assumption that random zeros will usually be for situations where any non-zero expenditure is not small.While this analysis is based on around economic data, the ideas carry over tomany other situations, including geological data, where minerals may be missing for structural reasons (similar to alcohol), or missing because they occur only in random regions which may be missed in a sample (similar to the durables)

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Són quatre els objectius d’aquesta recerca: (1) determinar la taxa de reincidència administrativa dels sotmesos a formes substitutives a la presó; (2) descriure les relacions significatives entre determinades variables individuals i d’historial delictiu i la seva reincidència; (3) comparar taxes de reincidència entre penats que compleixen treballs en benefici de la comunitat (TBC) i suspensions de condemna amb imposició de regles de conducta; (4) comparar les taxes de reincidència de persones amb mesures alternatives amb les de reincidència penitenciària. Per reincidència administrativa s’entén entrar a presó o complir una nova mesura penal alternativa per un nou delicte durant el període de seguiment. Per assolir els objectius, han estat estudiades 329 persones que, al llarg de l’any 2000, van finalitzar, com a mínim, un TBC o una obligació imposada en el marc de la suspensió de la pena. El seguiment ha estat conclòs els 30 de juny de 2005. Els resultats indiquen que: (1) la taxa de reincidència administrativa dels sotmesos a MPA és inferior a la taxa de reincidència penitenciària; (2) no hi ha diferències rellevants pel que fa a la reincidència administrativa entre els homes i les dones estudiades, tampoc entre estrangers i espanyols; (3) presenten una major taxa de reincidència els que tenen antecedents de qualsevol tipus, i encara una taxa major els que tenen antecedents penitenciaris.

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There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.

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This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discretionary fiscal policy has become more countercyclical over the last decades. In absence of such a change, surplus would have been higher, debt lower and output gap more volatile but only until mid 80s. An increase in the degree of counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy has a positive effect on output gap in periods where the level of debt-to-GDP ratio is low and a zero or negative effect when the ratio is high. This explains why a more countercylical stance of the systematic fiscal policy taking place in 2008:II is predicted to be rather ineffective for recovering from the crisis.

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One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By anessential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur inmany compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets,palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful insuch situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up amodel in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the secondhow the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

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It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds

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Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of Aarhus, Denmark, from 2010 to 2012. Reprogramming of cellular metabolism is a key process during tumorigenesis. This metabolic adaptation is required in order to sustain the energetic and anabolic demands of highly proliferative cancer cells. Despite known for decades (Warburg effect), the precise molecular mechanisms regulating this switch remained unexplored. We have identify SIRT6 as a novel tumor suppressor that regulates aerobic glycolysis in cancer cells. Importantly, loss of this sirtuin in non-transformed cells leads to tumor formation without activation of known oncogenes, indicating that SIRT6 functions as a first-hit tumor suppressor. Furthermore, transformed SIRT6-deficient cells display increased glycolysis and tumor growth in vivo, suggesting that SIRT6 plays a role in both establishment and maintenance of cancer. We provide data demonstrating that the glycolytic switch towards aerobic glycolysis is the main driving force for tumorigenesis in SIRT6-deficient cells, since inhibition of glycolysis in these cells abrogates their tumorigenic potential. By using a conditional SIRT6-targeted allele, we show that deletion of SIRT6 in vivo increases the number, size and aggressiveness of tumors, thereby confirming a role of SIRT6 as a tumor suppressor in vivo. In addition, we describe a new role for SIRT6 as a regulator of ribosome biogenesis by co-repressing MYC transcriptional activity. Therefore, by repressing glycolysis and ribosomal gene expression, SIRT6 inhibits tumor establishment and progression. Further validating these data, SIRT6 is selectively downregulated in several human cancers, and expression levels of SIRT6 predict both prognosis and tumor-free survival rates, highlighting SIRT6 as a critical modulator of cancer metabolism. Our results provide a potential Achilles’ hill to tackle cancer metabolism.

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Background: Few studies have used longitudinal ultrasound measurements to assess the effect of traffic-related air pollution on fetal growth.Objective: We examined the relationship between exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and aromatic hydrocarbons [benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, and o-xylene (BTEX)] on fetal growth assessed by 1,692 ultrasound measurements among 562 pregnant women from the Sabadell cohort of the Spanish INMA (Environment and Childhood) study.Methods: We used temporally adjusted land-use regression models to estimate exposures to NO2 and BTEX. We fitted mixed-effects models to estimate longitudinal growth curves for femur length (FL), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC), biparietal diameter (BPD), and estimated fetal weight (EFW). Unconditional and conditional SD scores were calculated at 12, 20, and 32 weeks of gestation. Sensitivity analyses were performed considering time–activity patterns during pregnancy.Results: Exposure to BTEX from early pregnancy was negatively associated with growth in BPD during weeks 20–32. None of the other fetal growth parameters were associated with exposure to air pollution during pregnancy. When considering only women who spent 2 hr/day in nonresidential outdoor locations, effect estimates were stronger and statistically significant for the association between NO2 and growth in HC during weeks 12–20 and growth in AC, BPD, and EFW during weeks 20–32.Conclusions: Our results lend some support to an effect of exposure to traffic-related air pollutants from early pregnancy on fetal growth during mid-pregnancy.

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The intensity of parental investments in child care time is expected to vary across families with different norms and time-constraints. Additionally, it should also differ across countries, since the abilities of parents to harmonize family and work vary by national context. In our opinion, however, this question remains inconclusive for two main reasons: 1) only some countries have been studied from a comparative approach; 2) previous studies have not paid enough attention to the analysis of how the conditional effects of education and employment affect parental investments.In this paper we used nationally representative time-use data from Denmark, Flanders, Spain and the United Kingdom (N=4,031) to explore how employment and education predict variations in child care time. IN Britain and Spain employment has a strong negative effect on fathers’ child care, but a weaker one in Flanders and particularly in Denmark. In contrast, maternal employment has a strong negative impact in all four countries. Education increases child care time significantly only among Spanish mothers and fathers, as well as British mothers. Nonetheless, we find that college-educated mothers under similar time-constraints increase substantially their expected child care time in Britain, Flanders and Spain; for fathers we find a more mixed picture. Routine child care activities are more sensitive to both maternal and paternal employment than interactive child care activities. Finally, we observe that working a public sector job generally increases a total time allocated to parental care, controlling for several demographic and socioeconomic variables.

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We analyze second birth decisions within the theoretical framework of joint household decision making, comparing two countires that represent the international extremes in terms of women's career behaviour, Denmark and Spain. Using all 8 ECHP panels we apply discrete time estimations of the likelihood of a second birth and show that in Spain, fertility behaviour continues to conform to the classic "Becker model" while in Denmark we identify a radically new behavioral pattern according to which career-women's fertility is conditional of their partners' contribution to care for the children.

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Can rules be used to shield public resources from political interference? The Brazilian constitution and national tax code stipulate that revenue sharing transfers to municipal governments be determined by the size of counties in terms of estimated population. In this paper I document that the population estimates which went into the transfer allocation formula for the year 1991 were manipulated, resulting in significant transfer differentials over the entire 1990's. I test whether conditional on county characteristics that might account for the manipulation, center-local party alignment, party popularity and the extent of interparty fragmentation at the county level are correlated with estimated populations in 1991. Results suggest that revenue sharing transfers were targeted at right-wing national deputies in electorally fragmented counties as well as aligned local executives.

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This paper estimates the effect of judicial institutions on governance at the local level in Brazil. Our estimation strategy exploits a unique institutional feature of state judiciary branches which assigns prosecutors and judges to the most populous among contiguous counties forming a judiciary district. As a result of this assignment mechanism there are counties with nearly identical populations, some with and some without local judicial presence, which we exploit to impute counterfactual outcomes. Conditional on observable county characteristics, offenses per civil servant are about 35% lower in counties that have a local seat of the state judiciary. The lower incidence of infractions stems mostly from fewer violations of financial management regulations by local administrators, fewer instances of problems in project execution and project managment, fewer cases of non-existent or ineffective civil society oversight and fewer cases of improper handling of remittances to local residents.