What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.

CO2 wedged hepatic venography in the evaluation of portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND/AIMS/METHODS During hepatic vein catheterisation, in addition to measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), iodine wedged retrograde portography can be easily obtained. However, it rarely allows correct visualisation of the portal vein. Recently, CO2 has been suggested to allow better angiographic demonstration of the portal vein than iodine. In this study we investigated the efficacy of CO2 compared with iodinated contrast medium for portal vein imaging and its role in the evaluation of portal hypertension in a series of 100 patients undergoing hepatic vein catheterisation, 71 of whom had liver cirrhosis. RESULTS In the overall series, CO2 venography was markedly superior to iodine, allowing correct visualisation of the different segments of the portal venous system. In addition, CO2, but not iodine, visualised portal-systemic collaterals in 34 patients. In cirrhosis, non-visualisation of the portal vein on CO2 venography occurred in 11 cases; four had portal vein thrombosis and five had communications between different hepatic veins. Among non-cirrhotics, lack of portal vein visualisation had a 90% sensitivity, 88% specificity, 94% negative predictive value, and 83% positive predictive value in the diagnosis of pre-sinusoidal portal hypertension. CONCLUSIONS Visualisation of the venous portal system by CO2 venography is markedly superior to iodine. The use of CO2 wedged portography is a useful and safe complementary procedure during hepatic vein catheterisation which may help to detect portal thrombosis. Also, lack of demonstration of the portal vein in non-cirrhotic patients strongly suggests the presence of pre-sinusoidal portal hypertension.

Nadolol plus isosorbide mononitrate alone or associated with band ligation in the prevention of recurrent bleeding: A multicenter randomized controlled trial.

Background and aims: Previous clinical trials suggest that adding non-selective beta-blockers improves the efficacy of endoscopic band ligation (EBL) in the prevention of recurrent bleeding, but no study has evaluated whether EBL improves the efficacy of beta-blockers + isosorbide-5-mononitrate. The present study was aimed at evaluating this issue in a multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) and to correlate changes in hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) during treatment with clinical outcomes. Methods: 158 patients with cirrhosis, admitted because of variceal bleeding, were randomised to receive nadolol+isosorbide-5-mononitrate alone (Drug: n=78) or combined with EBL (Drug+EBL; n=80). HVPG measurements were performed at randomisation and after 4¿6 weeks on medical therapy. Results: Median follow-up was 15 months. One-year probability of recurrent bleeding was similar in both groups (33% vs 26%: p=0.3). There were no significant differences in survival or need of rescue shunts. Overall adverse events or those requiring hospital admission were significantly more frequent in the Drug+EBL group. Recurrent bleeding was significantly more frequent in HVPG non-responders than in responders (HVPG reduction ¿20% or ¿12 mm Hg). Among non-responders recurrent bleeding was similar in patients treated with Drugs or Drugs+EBL. Conclusions: Adding EBL to pharmacological treatment did not reduce recurrent bleeding, the need for rescue therapy, or mortality, and was associated with more adverse events. Furthermore, associating EBL to drug therapy did not reduce the high rebleeding risk of HVPG non-responders.

The extent of the collateral circulation influences the postprandial increase in portal pressure in patients with cirrhosis.

Background: In cirrhosis, repeated flares of portal pressure and collateral blood flow provoked by postprandial hyperaemia may contribute to variceal dilation and rupture. Aim: To examine the effect of the extent of the collateral circulation on the postprandial increase in portal pressure observed in cirrhosis. Patients and methods: The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), hepatic blood flow and azygos blood flow were measured in 64 patients with cirrhosis before and after a standard liquid meal. Results: Peak increases in HVPG (median+14.9%), hepatic blood flow (median+25.4%), and azygos blood flow (median+32.2%) occurred at 30 min after the meal. Compared with patients with marked postprandial increase in HVPG (above the median, n¿=¿32), those showing mild (<15%, n¿=¿32) increase in HVPG had a higher baseline azygos flow (p<0.01) and underwent a greater postprandial increase in azygos flow (p<0.02). Hepatic blood flow increased similarly in both groups. Postprandial increases in HVPG were inversely correlated (p<0.001) with both baseline azygos flow (r¿=¿¿0.69) and its postprandial increase (r¿=¿¿0.72). Food intake increased nitric oxide products in the azygos (p<0.01), but not in the hepatic vein. Large varices (p<0.01) and previous variceal bleeding (p<0.001) were more frequent in patients with mild increase in HVPG. Conclusions: Postprandial hyperaemia simultaneously increases HVPG and collateral flow. The extent of the collateral circulation determines the HVPG response to food intake. Patients with extensive collateralisation show less pronounced postprandial increases in HVPG, but associated with marked flares in collateral flow. Collateral vessels preserve their ability to dilate in response to increased blood flow.

Us explico un conte? Ús de llibres il·lustrats per a la didàctica de l'educació visual i plàstica

L'objectiu d'aquest article és promoure la incorporació de llibres il-lustrats a l'espai docent, tot defensant la interacció entre escola i entorn. Amb aquesta intenció es presenta una experiència docent que es du a terme a les classes de Didàctica de l'Educació Visual i Plàstica (UB), en la formació inicial del professorat d'educació primària, que empra el llibre il-lustrat com a eina docent. Es tracta d'un corpus d'obres de gran qualitat, la temàtica dels quals està relacionada amb el fet artístic i la seva didàctica. Amb l'ús a les aules universitàries d'aquest tipus de llibres es volen aconseguir principalment tres objectius: donar-los a conèixer als futurs mestres per a la seva formació i perquè els puguin compartir amb els seus futurs alumnes a les aules d'Educació Primària; tractar temes específics de l'àrea de plàstica, i fomentar la reflexió sobre la pràctica docent o altres temes específics.

Effect of meal ingestion on liver stiffness in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver stiffness is increasingly used in the non-invasive evaluation of chronic liver diseases. Liver stiffness correlates with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in patients with cirrhosis and holds prognostic value in this population. Hence, accuracy in its measurement is needed. Several factors independent of fibrosis influence liver stiffness, but there is insufficient information on whether meal ingestion modifies liver stiffness in cirrhosis. We investigated the changes in liver stiffness occurring after the ingestion of a liquid standard test meal in this population. METHODS: In 19 patients with cirrhosis and esophageal varices (9 alcoholic, 9 HCV-related, 1 NASH; Child score 6.9±1.8), liver stiffness (transient elastography), portal blood flow (PBF) and hepatic artery blood flow (HABF) (Doppler-Ultrasound) were measured before and 30 minutes after receiving a standard mixed liquid meal. In 10 the HVPG changes were also measured. RESULTS: Post-prandial hyperemia was accompanied by a marked increase in liver stiffness (+27±33%; p<0.0001). Changes in liver stiffness did not correlate with PBF changes, but directly correlated with HABF changes (r = 0.658; p = 0.002). After the meal, those patients showing a decrease in HABF (n = 13) had a less marked increase of liver stiffness as compared to patients in whom HABF increased (n = 6; +12±21% vs. +62±29%,p<0.0001). As expected, post-prandial hyperemia was associated with an increase in HVPG (n = 10; +26±13%, p = 0.003), but changes in liver stiffness did not correlate with HVPG changes. CONCLUSIONS: Liver stiffness increases markedly after a liquid test meal in patients with cirrhosis, suggesting that its measurement should be performed in standardized fasting conditions. The hepatic artery buffer response appears an important factor modulating postprandial changes of liver stiffness. The post-prandial increase in HVPG cannot be predicted by changes in liver stiffness.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Teaching how to learn with a wiki in Primary Education: what classroom interaction can tell us

Understanding how wikis are used to support collaborative learning is an important concern for researchers and teachers. Adopting a discourse analytic approach, this paper attempts to understand the teaching processes when a wiki is embedded in a science project in primary education to foster collaborative learning. Through studying interaction between the teacher and students, our findings identify ways in which the teacher prompts collaborative learning but also shed light on the difficulties for the teacher in supporting student collective collaboration. It is argued that technological wiki features supporting collaborative learning can only be realized if teacher talk and pedagogy are aligned with the characteristics of wiki collaborative work: the freedom of students to organize and participate by themselves, creating dialogic space and promoting student participation. We argue that a dialogic approach for examining interaction can be used to help to design a more effective pedagogic approach in the use of wikis in education, to shift into Web 2.0 learning paradigm and to equip learners with the competences they need to participate in knowledge co-construction.

Aggressivity, violence, sociability and conflict resolution: What genes can tell us.

Conflicts are inherent to the human condition, as they are for all living beings. Disputes about resources or access to mating partners are among the most common causes of conflict. Conflict is herein defined as a struggle or contest between individuals or parties, and may involve a variety of aggressive behaviours. In humans, aggressiveness, violence and conflicts, including individual predisposal to conflict resolution, have traditionally been said to have deep cultural roots, but recent research in both neuroscience and genetics has shown the influence of genes on such complex behavioural traits. In this paper, recent data on the genetic aspects of these interrelated behaviours will be put together, including the effects of particular genes, the influence of stress and gender on gene regulation, and gene-environment interactions, all of which may influence biological predisposal to conflict resolution. Other genetically influenced behavioural aspects involved in conflicts and conflict resolution, such as sociability, will also be discussed. The importance of taking into account genetic and biological data to provide strategies for conflict resolution will be highlighted.

Incidence, prevalence and clinical significance of abnormal hematological indices in compensated cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Patients with cirrhosis develop abnormal hematologic indices (HI) from multiple factors, including hypersplenism. We aimed to analyze the sequence of events and determine whether abnormal HI has prog-nostic significance. Methods: We analyzed a database of 213 subjects with compensated cirrhosis without esopha-geal varices. Subjects were followed for approximately 9 years until the development of varices or variceal bleeding or completion of the study; 84 subjects developed varices. Abnormal HI was defined as anemia at baseline (hemoglo-bin,<13.5 g/dL for men and 11.5 g/dL for women), leuko-penia (white blood cell counts,<4000/mm 3 ), or thrombo-cytopenia (platelet counts, < 150,000/mm 3 ). The primary end points were death or transplant surgery. Results: Most subjects had thrombocytopenia at baseline. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that leukopenia occurred by 30 months (95% confidence interval, 18.5-53.6), and anemia occurred by 39.6 months (95% confidence interval, 24.1-49.9). Baseline thrombocytopenia (P .0191) and leukope-nia (P.0383) were predictors of death or transplant, after adjusting for baseline hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), and Child-Pugh scores. After a median of 5 years,a significant difference in death or transplant, mortality,and clinical decompensation was observed in patients who had leukopenia combined with thrombocytopenia at base- line compared with patients with normal HI (P < .0001). HVPG correlated with hemoglobin and white blood cell count (hemoglobin, r 0.35, P < .0001; white blood cell count, r 0.31, P < .0001). Conclusions: Thrombocy-topenia is the most common and first abnormal HI to occurin patients with cirrhosis, followed by leukopenia and anemia. A combination of leukopenia and thrombocytopenia at baselin predicted increased morbidity and mortality.

Non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Cirrhosis is the final stage of most of chronic liver diseases, and is almost invariably complicated by portal hypertension, which is the most important cause of morbidity and mortality in these patients. This review will focus on the non-invasive methods currently used in clinical practice for diagnosing liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. The first-line techniques include physical examination, laboratory parameters, transient elastography and Doppler-US. More sophisticated imaging methods which are less commonly employed are CT scan and MRI, and new technologies which are currently under evaluation are MR elastography and acoustic radiation force imaging (ARFI). Even if none of them can replace the invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient and the endoscopic screening of gastroesophageal varices, they notably facilitate the clinical management of patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension, and provide valuable prognostic information.

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public-Private Partnerships : Contractual Choice in the US Water industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the U.S. water sector through public-private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labor is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.

The regional distribution of unemployment. What do micro-data tell us?

Regional disparities in unemployment rates are large and persistent. The literature provides evidence of their magnitude and evolution, as well as evidence of the role of certain economic, demographic and environmental factors in explaining the gap between regions of low and high unemployment. Most of these studies, however, adopt an aggregate approach and so do not account for the individual characteristics of the unemployed and employed in each region. This paper, by drawing on micro-data from the Spanish wave of the Labour Force Survey, seeks to remedy this shortcoming by analysing regional differentials in unemployment rates. An appropriate decomposition of the regional gap in the average probability of being unemployed enables us to distinguish between the contribution of differences in the regional distribution of individual characteristics from that attributable to a different impact of these characteristics on the probability of unemployment. Our results suggest that the well-documented disparities in regional unemployment are not just the result of regional heterogeneity in the distribution of individual characteristics. Non-negligible differences in the probability of unemployment remain after controlling for this type of heterogeneity, as a result of differences across regions in the impact of the observed characteristics. Among the factors considered in our analysis, regional differences in the endowment and impact of an individual’s education are shown to play a major role.