A structural model of Australia as a small open economy

This paper sets up and estimates a structuralmodel of Australia as a small open economyusing Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recentstudies, the paper shows that a small microfoundedmodel can capture the open economydimensions quite well. Specifically, the modelattributes a substantial fraction of the volatilityof domestic output and inflation to foreigndisturbances, close to what is suggested by unrestrictedVAR studies. The paper also investigatesthe effects of various exogenous shockson the Australian economy.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

An empirical evaluation of small area estimators

This paper investigates the comparative performance of five small areaestimators. We use Monte Carlo simulation in the context of boththeoretical and empirical populations. In addition to the direct andindirect estimators, we consider the optimal composite estimator withpopulation weights, and two composite estimators with estimatedweights: one that assumes homogeneity of within area variance andsquare bias, and another one that uses area specific estimates ofvariance and square bias. It is found that among the feasibleestimators, the best choice is the one that uses area specificestimates of variance and square bias.

R&D in the pharmaceutical industry: A world of small innovations

It is commonly argued that in recent years pharmaceutical companies have directed theirR&D towards small improvements of existing compounds instead of more risky drastic innovations. In this paper we show that the proliferation of these small innovations is likely to be linked to the lack of market sensitivity of a part of the demand to changes in prices. Compared to their social contribution, small innovations are relatively more profitable than large ones because they are targeted to the smaller but more inelastic part of the demand. We also study the effect of regulatory instruments such as price ceilings, copayments and reference prices and extend the analysis to competition in research.

Which inflation to target? A small open economy with sticky wages indexed to past inflation

In a closed economy context there is common agreement on price inflation stabilization being one of the objects of monetary policy. Moving to an open economy context gives rise to the coexistence of two measures of inflation: domestic inflation (DI) and consumer price inflation (CPI). Which one of the two measures should be the target variable? This is the question addressed in this paper. In particular, I use a small open economy model to show that once sticky wages indexed to past CPI inflation are introduced, a complete inward looking monetary policy is no more optimal. I first, derive a loss function from a secondorder approximation of the utility function and then, I compute the fully optimalmonetary policy under commitment. Then, I use the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to compare the performance of different monetary policy rules. The main result is that once a positive degree of indexation is introduced in the model the rule performing better (among the Taylor type rules considered) is the one targeting wage inflation and CPI inflation. Moreover this rule delivers results very close to the one obtained under the fully optimal monetary policy with commitment.

A Small Baseline DIFSAR Approach for Investigating Deformations on Full Resolution SAR Interferograms

This paper presents a differential synthetic apertureradar (SAR) interferometry (DIFSAR) approach for investigatingdeformation phenomena on full-resolution DIFSAR interferograms.In particular, our algorithm extends the capabilityof the small-baseline subset (SBAS) technique that relies onsmall-baseline DIFSAR interferograms only and is mainly focusedon investigating large-scale deformations with spatial resolutionsof about 100 100 m. The proposed technique is implemented byusing two different sets of data generated at low (multilook data)and full (single-look data) spatial resolution, respectively. Theformer is used to identify and estimate, via the conventional SBAStechnique, large spatial scale deformation patterns, topographicerrors in the available digital elevation model, and possibleatmospheric phase artifacts; the latter allows us to detect, onthe full-resolution residual phase components, structures highlycoherent over time (buildings, rocks, lava, structures, etc.), as wellas their height and displacements. In particular, the estimation ofthe temporal evolution of these local deformations is easily implementedby applying the singular value decomposition technique.The proposed algorithm has been tested with data acquired by theEuropean Remote Sensing satellites relative to the Campania area(Italy) and validated by using geodetic measurements.

Homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras

This paper provides an explicit cofibrant resolution of the operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras. Thus it defines the notion of homotopy Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras with the required homotopy properties. To define this resolution we extend the theory of Koszul duality to operads and properads that are defind by quadratic and linear relations. The operad encoding Batalin-Vilkovisky algebras is shown to be Koszul in this sense. This allows us to prove a Poincare-Birkhoff-Witt Theorem for such an operad and to give an explicit small quasi-free resolution for it. This particular resolution enables us to describe the deformation theory and homotopy theory of BV-algebras and of homotopy BV-algebras. We show that any topological conformal field theory carries a homotopy BV-algebra structure which lifts the BV-algebra structure on homology. The same result is proved for the singular chain complex of the double loop space of a topological space endowed with an action of the circle. We also prove the cyclic Deligne conjecture with this cofibrant resolution of the operad BV. We develop the general obstruction theory for algebras over the Koszul resolution of a properad and apply it to extend a conjecture of Lian-Zuckerman, showing that certain vertex algebras have an explicit homotopy BV-algebra structure.

Small scale underwater change detection

In this paper, we present a method to deal with the constraints of the underwater medium for finding changes between sequences of underwater images. One of the main problems of underwater medium for automatically detecting changes is the low altitude of the camera when taking pictures. This emphasise the parallax effect between the images as they are not taken exactly at the same position. In order to solve this problem, we are geometrically registering the images together taking into account the relief of the scene

Low birthweight, preterm, and small for gestational age babies in Scotland, 1981-1984.

The aim was to examine the effect of maternal age, gravidity, marital status, previous perinatal deaths, and parental social class on babies born low birthweight, preterm, and small for gestational age. DESIGN--The study used data on discharge summaries from all maternity hospitals in Scotland. SETTING--The study was based on all singleton deliveries in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS--The analysis involved information on 259,462 singleton babies born during the four years 1981-84 in Scotland. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Previous perinatal death was found to be the strongest predictor for both preterm and low birthweight. Single mothers were at particularly high risk of having a small for gestational age baby and those who were previously married of having a preterm baby. Women aged less than 20 years old, those over 34 years old, nulligravidae, and those of parity 3 or more were also at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Mothers and fathers in manual social classes and those who could not be assigned a social class on the basis of their occupation were at increased risk for all three adverse outcomes studied. The babies of parents who were in manual occupations were twice as likely as those of parents in non-manual occupations to be small for gestational age and almost twice as likely to be low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS--Mother's social class is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcome independent of maternal age, parity, and adverse reproductive history, and also independent of father's social class. Information on both parents' occupations should be collected in maternity discharge systems.

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies in sera from colectomised ulcerative colitis patients and its relation to the presence of pouchitis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated the influence of colectomy on antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) positivity in ulcerative colitis (UC). In small series of patients it has been suggested that ANCA positivity in UC might be predictive for development of pouchitis after colectomy. AIMS: To assess the prevalence of ANCA in UC patients treated by colectomy and a Brooke's ileostomy (UC-BI) or ileal pouch anal anastomosis (UC-IPAA), and the relation between the presence of ANCA, the type of surgery, and the presence of pouchitis. SUBJECTS: 63 UC patients treated by colectomy (32 with UC-BI and 31 with UC-IPAA), 54 UC, and 24 controls. METHODS: Samples were obtained at least two years after colectomy. ANCA were detected by indirect immunofluorescent assay. RESULTS: There were no differences between patients with (36.3%) or without pouchitis (35.0%) and between patients with UC (55%), UC-BI (40.6%), and UC-IPAA (35.4%). However, ANCA prevalence significantly decreases in the whole group of operated patients (38.0%) compared with non-operated UC (p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of ANCA in operated patients was significantly lower than in non-operated UC, suggesting that it might be related either to the presence of inflamed or diseased tissue. ANCA persistence is not related to the surgical procedure and it should not be used as a marker for predicting the development of pouchitis.

Sedimentological and palaeohydrological responses to tectonics and climate in a small, closed lacustrine system: Oligocene As Pontes Basin (Spain)

A small, closed, lacustrine system developed during the restraining overstep stages of the Oligocene As Pontes strike-slip basin (Spain). The increase in basin accommodation and the headward spread of the drainage, which increased the water input, triggered a change from shallow, holomictic to deeper, meromictic conditions.