The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

The effects of teacher talk on students’ oral productions

The present study is a brief personal enquiry into the teaching and learning of EFL in the classroom with an orientation to action and personal professional development. It focuses on teacher talk, making special emphasis on questions, as well as on students’ resulting oral productions. The research contains samples of empirical data, which include their interpretations in the light of relevant research literature, and a more personal overall reflection of the teaching practice. Both the analysis and the reflections derive to a large extent from the self-observation paper 1 (SO1) and the Practicum portfolio (PP) developed within the TED Masters Degree practicum stages

Inclusió de les TIC en el portafoli de l'estudiant per a l'ensenyament dels mètodes numèrics

La finalitat d’aquest projecte ha estat la millora de la formació global dels estudiants. Concretament, mitjançant la creació d’un portafolis que contingui les diferents activitats que ha realitzat l’estudiant al llarg del curs es pretén potenciar tant les competències específiques com les competències transversals dels estudiants. Concretament, aquest objectiu s'ha assolit mitjançant el disseny i el desenvolupament de: 1. nou material docent corresponent a la presentació dels continguts de l’assignatura (apunts, presentacions, animacions,... ) amb el que s'ha pretès promoure el treball individual i la capacitat d’autoaprenentatge dels estudiants. 2. sesions dirigits que es realitzen en aules informàtiques amb el que s'ha volgut incrementar la motivació i desenvolupar un esperit crític dels estudiants 3. treballs tutelats que els estudiants realitzaran en grups, posteriorments pesentaran a la resta de companys i que finalment condueixen a la redacció d’un informe final. D'aquesta manera s'ha pretès desenvolupar les competències transversals dels estudiants

Grup de treball en el portafoli de l'estudiant (GTPoE)

El projecte del grup de treball en el portafoli d’aprenentatge de l'estudiant de la UPC (GtPoE) ha tingut una durada d'un any i s'ha realitzat a la Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Els objectius del projecte, que majoritàriament s’han assolit, han estat essencialment: (1) formació d'un grup d’interès per impulsar el portafoli i portafoli electrònic com a eines d'avaluació vàlides en el context nou de l'EEES, format per professors de la UPC i d’altres universitats que s’han volgut incorporar; (2) posta a punt i ús d’una plataforma intranet i web per a la coordinació del grup i exposició de materials; (3) realització de seminaris específics amb ponents expert en aquesta matèria per assolir les bases de la metodologia; (4) assaig per part de professors del grup de treball, d’experiències del portafoli de l’estudiant en assignatures tant obligatories com optatives en diversos centres de la UPC, i la introducció del portafoli de la carrera (o carpeta de competències) en l’EPSC; (5) adquirir documentació i referències bibliogràfiques sobre aquesta eina del portafoli i altres tècniques d’innovació docent; i (6), participar en congressos i jornades per explicar els resultats del projecte. Actualment, al final d’aquest projecte, el grup té 26 membres i la voluntat de continuar desenvolupant la tasca d’inserció del portafoli en els nous plans d’estudis. Així com també es treballa coordinadament amb els altres grups d’interès que s’han format al voltant de l’ICE de la UPC a l'entorn de la innovació docent, al mateix temps que es participa en les activitats que desenvolupa la RED E-Portfolio a nivell estatal amb objectius similars coordinada per professors de la UOC.

Ampliació i extensió en l'ús del portafolis digital en l'avaluació de l'alumnat

El treball realitzat amb l’ajuda MQD2006 està relacionat amb l’ús de portafolis electrònics en un context universitari. Els objectius que ens havíem traçat, eren: 1)Dissenyar una versió beta del portafolis digital desenvolupat adhoc pel grup 2)Implementar una metodologia avaluativa basada en el portafolis digital desenvolupat 3)Generar portafolis digitals com a model de bones pràctiques d’avaluació de l’alumnat 4)Recollir dades sobre el seu funcionament en relació a l’alumnat A més dels anteriors objectius, relacionats amb els aspectes pedagògics freuit de la implementació i ús dels portafolis digitals, hi ha dos objectius relacionats amb aspectes didàctics. Aquests són: 5) Anàlisi dels canvis en la metodologia didàctica i en els continguts curriculars 6) Anàlisi de criteris de sostenibilitat de la utilització continuada del portafolis digital. Almenys 5 d’aquests 6 objectius s’han complert de manera completa, i un (el nombre cinc) ha quedat solament esbossat. Per altra banda, alguns resultats inesperats s’han produït en aquests dos anys i es poden afegir a aquesta llista inicial: 7) Expansió i difusió de l’experiència cap a altres universitats. 8) Possibilitat de plantejar un projecte d’investigació bàsica sobre les conseqüències de l’ús de portafolis en la docència universitària basada en l’EEES. La Memòria seguirà de prop aquests objectius, si bé es distribuiran d’una manera diferent. Com a resultats i conclusions hem pogut veure que l’eina ha estat ben valorada en quant a la metodologia d’ús proposada, en quant al propi seguiment de l’aprenentatge i per una autoavaluació continuada. Hem vist una millora en les reflexions dels estudiants fent servir un diàleg on-line entre professor-estudiant. D’altra banda, hem detectat que es requereix millorar la seva usabilitat, un ús continuat més llarg i algunes recomanacions encarades al treball docent del professorat i no tant de l’eina.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation

To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Capturing and Organizing Prior Student Learning with the OCW Backpack

The purpose of this paper is to present an approach for students to have non-traditional learning assessed for credit and introduce a tool that facilitates this process. The OCW Backpack system can connect self-learners with KNEXT assessment services to obtain college credit for prior learning. An ex post facto study based on historical data collected over the past two years at Kaplan University (KU) is presented to validate the portfolio assessment process. Cumulative GPA was compared for students who received experiential credit for learning derived from personal or professional experience with a matched sample of students with no experiential learning credits. The study found that students who received experiential credits perform better than the matched sample students on GPA. The findings validate the KU portfolio assessment process. Additionally, the results support the capability of the OCW Backpack to capture the critical information necessary to evaluate non-traditional learning for university credit.

Behavioral aspects of investment fund's markets: are good managers lucky or skilled?

It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds

Portafolio selection with skewness: a comparison of methods and a generalized two fund separation result

This contribution compares existing and newly developed techniques for geometrically representing mean-variances-kewness portfolio frontiers based on the rather widely adapted methodology of polynomial goal programming (PGP) on the one hand and the more recent approach based on the shortage function on the other hand. Moreover, we explain the working of these different methodologies in detail and provide graphical illustrations. Inspired by these illustrations, we prove a generalization of the well-known two fund separation theorem from traditionalmean-variance portfolio theory.

Portafoli virtual

El propòsit que es vol assolir amb aquest projecte és la possibilitat de tenir un portafoli virtual de les feines realitzades durant les diverses assignatures, amb una connotació temporal per poder veure l'evolució, millores i aprenentatge que han tingut els alumnes.

Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

Bundling and competition for slots: Sequential pricing

In this paper we study, as in Jeon-Menicucci (2009), competition between sellerswhen each of them sells a portfolio of distinct products to a buyer having limitedslots. This paper considers sequential pricing and complements our main paper (Jeon-Menicucci, 2009) that considers simultaneous pricing.First, Jeon-Menicucci (2009) find that under simultaneous individual pricing, equilibriumoften does not exist and hence the outcome is often inefficient. By contrast,equilibrium always exists under sequential individual pricing and we characterize it inthis paper. We find that each seller faces a trade-off between the number of slots heoccupies and surplus extraction per product, and there is no particular reason thatthis leads to an efficient allocation of slots.Second, Jeon-Menicucci (2009) find that when bundling is allowed, there alwaysexists an efficient equilibrium but inefficient equilibria can also exist due to purebundling (for physical products) or slotting contracts. Under sequential pricing,we find that all equilibria are efficient regardless of whether firms can use slottingcontracts, and both for digital goods and for physical goods. Therefore, sequentialpricing presents an even stronger case for laissez-faire in the matter of bundling thansimultaneous pricing.