A fast Bayesian reconstruction algorithm for emission tomography with entropy prior converging to feasible images

The development and tests of an iterative reconstruction algorithm for emission tomography based on Bayesian statistical concepts are described. The algorithm uses the entropy of the generated image as a prior distribution, can be accelerated by the choice of an exponent, and converges uniformly to feasible images by the choice of one adjustable parameter. A feasible image has been defined as one that is consistent with the initial data (i.e. it is an image that, if truly a source of radiation in a patient, could have generated the initial data by the Poisson process that governs radioactive disintegration). The fundamental ideas of Bayesian reconstruction are discussed, along with the use of an entropy prior with an adjustable contrast parameter, the use of likelihood with data increment parameters as conditional probability, and the development of the new fast maximum a posteriori with entropy (FMAPE) Algorithm by the successive substitution method. It is shown that in the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and FMAPE algorithms, the only correct choice of initial image for the iterative procedure in the absence of a priori knowledge about the image configuration is a uniform field.

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Systematic trends in self-consistent calculations of linear quantum wires

Systematic trends in the properties of a linear split-gate heterojunction are studied by solving iteratively the Poisson and Schrödinger equations for different gate potentials and temperatures. A two-dimensional approximation is presented that is much simpler in the numerical implementation and that accurately reproduces all significant trends. In deriving this approximation, we provide a rigorous and quantitative basis for the formulation of models that assumes a two-dimensional character for the electron gas at the junction.

Systematics of properties of the electron gas in deep-etched quantum wires

An efficient method is developed for an iterative solution of the Poisson and Schro¿dinger equations, which allows systematic studies of the properties of the electron gas in linear deep-etched quantum wires. A much simpler two-dimensional (2D) approximation is developed that accurately reproduces the results of the 3D calculations. A 2D Thomas-Fermi approximation is then derived, and shown to give a good account of average properties. Further, we prove that an analytic form due to Shikin et al. is a good approximation to the electron density given by the self-consistent methods.

Model of single-electron decay from a strongly isolated quantum dot

Recent measurements of electron escape from a nonequilibrium charged quantum dot are interpreted within a two-dimensional (2D) separable model. The confining potential is derived from 3D self-consistent Poisson-Thomas-Fermi calculations. It is found that the sequence of decay lifetimes provides a sensitive test of the confining potential and its dependence on electron occupation

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Chaotic Kabanov formula for the Azéma martingales

We derive the chaotic expansion of the product of nth- and first-order multiple stochastic integrals with respect to certain normal martingales. This is done by application of the classical and quantum product formulae for multiple stochastic integrals. Our approach extends existing results on chaotic calculus for normal martingales and exhibits properties, relative to multiple stochastic integrals, polynomials and Wick products, that characterize the Wiener and Poisson processes.

Migration Flows and Quality of Life in a Metropolitan Area: the Case of Barcelona-Spain

The phenomenon of human migration is certainly not new and it has been studied from a variety of perspectives. Yet, the attention on human migration and its determinant has not been fading over time as confirmed by recent contributions (see for instance Cushing and Poot 2004 and Rebhun and Raveh 2006). In this paper we combine the recent theoretical contributions by Douglas (1997) and Wall (2001) with the methodological advancements of Guimarães et al. (2000, 2003) to model inter-municipal migration flows in the Barcelona area. In order to do that, we employ two different types of count models, i.e. the Poisson and negative binomial and compare the estimations obtained. Our results show that, even after controlling for the traditional migration factors, QoL (measured with a Composite Index which includes numerous aspects and also using a list of individual variables) is an important determinant of short distance migration movements in the Barcelona area.

Incidencia de la incapacidad temporal por contingencia común y profesional en la muestra continua de vidas laborales en 2009

Objetivo: Describir la incidencia de la incapacidad temporal por contingencia común (ITcc) y profesional (ITcp) iniciada en 2009 en afiliados a la Seguridad Social (SS) que forman parte de la Muestra Continua de Vida Laboral.Métodos: Cohorte formada por 873.008 afiliados a la SS en España que registraron 163.008 episodios de IT con un tiempo acumulado total en riesgo de 675.923,6 trabajadores-año. Se estimó la tasa de incidencia de todos los primeros episodios de IT y por trastornos musculo-esqueléticos (TME) según variables demográficas y laborales. Posteriormente se calcularon las razones de tasas crudas (RTc) y ajustadas (RTa) mediante un modelo de regresión Poisson.Resultados: La incidencia de la ITcc e ITcp fue de 23,1 y 1,0 casos por 100 trabajadores-año, respectivamente. La incidencia por ITcc fue superior en mujeres, en menores de 26 años y en Navarra (32,8 casos por 100 trabajadores-año), y por ITcp las mayores incidencias se observaron en hombres y en Galicia. Por diagnóstico, los TME presentaron 424,7 casos y 3,6 casos por 10.000 trabajadores-año según contingencia común y profesional respectivamente. Por otra parte, los trabajadores temporales tuvieron más riesgo de desarrollar ITcp (RTa=1,09;IC95%=1,04-1,15) e ITcc (RTa=1,02;IC95%=1,01-1,03) respecto a los permanentes.Conclusiones: La incidencia de la IT sigue un mismo patrón según edad, régimen de afiliación y relación laboral. Por tipo de contingencia se observaron diferencias en la ocupación, sexo, tamaño de empresa, comunidad autónoma y actividad económica. Es necesario estudiar con más detenimiento las diferencias observadas por actividad económica y tipo de relación contractual.

Heterogeneity and event dependence in the analysis of sickness absence

Sickness absence (SA) is an important social, economic and public health issue. Identifying and understanding the determinants, whether biological, regulatory or, health services-related, of variability in SA duration is essential for better management of SA. The conditional frailty model (CFM) is useful when repeated SA events occur within the same individual, as it allows simultaneous analysis of event dependence and heterogeneity due to unknown, unmeasured, or unmeasurable factors. However, its use may encounter computational limitations when applied to very large data sets, as may frequently occur in the analysis of SA duration. To overcome the computational issue, we propose a Poisson-based conditional frailty model (CFPM) for repeated SA events that accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model proposed in the SA duration context, we used data from all non-work-related SA episodes that occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in 2007, initiated by either a diagnosis of neoplasm or mental and behavioral disorders. As expected, the CFPM results were very similar to those of the CFM for both diagnosis groups. The CPU time for the CFPM was substantially shorter than the CFM. The CFPM is an suitable alternative to the CFM in survival analysis with recurrent events,especially with large databases.

Vanishing Clams on an iberian beach: local consequences and global implication of accelerating loss of shells to tourism

Multi-decadal increase in shell removal by tourists, a process that may accelerate degradation of natural habitats, was quantified via two series of monthly surveys, conducted thirty years apart (1978-1981 and 2008-2010) in one small embayment on the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Over the last three decades, the local tourist arrivals have increased almost three-fold (2.74), while the area has remained unaffected by urban encroachment and commercial fisheries. Concomitantly, abundance of mollusk shells along the shoreline decreased almost three-fold (2.62) and displayed a tight inverse correlation with tourist arrivals. A four-fold increase in tourist arrivals observed globally over the last 30 years has likely induced a comparable worldwide acceleration in shell removal from marine shorelines and exerted multiple negative (but currently unquantifiable) habitat changes that may include increased beach erosion, changes in carbon and calcium cycles, and decline in diversity and abundance of organisms dependent on shell availability.

Entrenament d'un ciclista esprinter mitjançant la força explosiva: avaluació dels efectes d'un entrenament específic

La principal fita dels ciclistes ha estat sempre l’entrenament per millorar les seves condicions i prestacions fisiològiques. Al llarg dels anys, el ciclisme com pràcticament tot l’esport s’ha anat modernitzant, no només tecnològicament. Això ha provocat l’aparició d’especialistes, corredors destinats a destacar, només en unes determinades condicions, per sobre els demés. Una d’aquestes condicions més restringides son les arribades massives, terreny dels anomenats esprinters, els quals brillen per sobre els demés degut a la seva potència, velocitat punta i arrancada. L’entrenament d’aquesta tipologia d’especialitat ha deixat entreveure varies ambigüitats i algunes problemàtiques de fonament teòric. L’esprint en el ciclisme es dona després d’un gran desgast de les reserves energètiques i de fatiga muscular. Per tant, entrenar-lo amb blocs de velocitat no té lògica. Tampoc es una opció viable el recurs que molts equips utilitzen: agafar corredors joves de la pista, i que la seva genètica (fibres ràpides) i les seves característiques de pistard1 facin la resta, perquè al pas dels anys perden aquesta exclusivitat. Aquest estudi es proposa buscar una manera de treballar i potenciar l’esprint del ciclista a partir de la força explosiva, garantint preservar les condicions aeròbiques per tal de que no perjudiqui per altra banda la seva resistència. Per tal d’aconseguir-ho, s’efectuaran uns tests. Un focalitzat en mesurar les prestacions en un esprint dels subjectes. L’altra es basarà en avaluar la força explosiva d’aquets, a partir de salts verticals. Un cop obtinguts els resultats de la primera tanda, els subjectes seran sotmesos a un entrenament combinat de sobrecàrrega, per tal de observar, en la segona tanda, si els resultats son significatius. Com a conclusió, es podria destacar el fet de millora en la majoria d’aspectes en tots els tests per part de tots els subjectes, i que probablement, hi ha una correlació significativa entre la força explosiva i la capacitat per esprintar, tot i que s’haurien de corroborar els resultats amb una mostra més gran.

On an asymptotic formula for the maximum voltage drop in a on-chip power distribution network

We present a new asymptotic formula for the maximum static voltage in a simplified model for on-chip power distribution networks of array bonded integrated circuits. In this model the voltage is the solution of a Poisson equation in an infinite planar domain whose boundary is an array of circular pads of radius ", and we deal with the singular limit Ɛ → 0 case. In comparison with approximations that appear in the electronic engineering literature, our formula is more complete since we have obtained terms up to order Ɛ15. A procedure will be presented to compute all the successive terms, which can be interpreted as using multipole solutions of equations involving spatial derivatives of functions. To deduce the formula we use the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are completely analytical and we make an extensive use of special functions and of the Gauss constant G

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques