Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Use of NIR spectroscopy and multivariate process spectra calibration methodology for pharmaceutical solid samples analysis

Accomplish high quality of final products in pharmaceutical industry is a challenge that requires the control and supervision of all the manufacturing steps. This request created the necessity of developing fast and accurate analytical methods. Near infrared spectroscopy together with chemometrics, fulfill this growing demand. The high speed providing relevant information and the versatility of its application to different types of samples lead these combined techniques as one of the most appropriated. This study is focused on the development of a calibration model able to determine amounts of API from industrial granulates using NIR, chemometrics and process spectra methodology.

Eliminació d'artefactes en EGG mitjançant l'ús de la Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition

La tècnica de l’electroencefalograma (EEG) és una de les tècniques més utilitzades per estudiar el cervell. En aquesta tècnica s’enregistren els senyals elèctrics que es produeixen en el còrtex humà a través d’elèctrodes col•locats al cap. Aquesta tècnica, però, presenta algunes limitacions a l’hora de realitzar els enregistraments, la principal limitació es coneix com a artefactes, que són senyals indesitjats que es mesclen amb els senyals EEG. L’objectiu d’aquest treball de final de màster és presentar tres nous mètodes de neteja d’artefactes que poden ser aplicats en EEG. Aquests estan basats en l’aplicació de la Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition, que és una nova tècnica utilitzada per al processament de senyal. Els mètodes de neteja proposats s’apliquen a dades EEG simulades que contenen artefactes (pestanyeigs), i un cop s’han aplicat els procediments de neteja es comparen amb dades EEG que no tenen pestanyeigs, per comprovar quina millora presenten. Posteriorment, dos dels tres mètodes de neteja proposats s’apliquen sobre dades EEG reals. Les conclusions que s’han extret del treball són que dos dels nous procediments de neteja proposats es poden utilitzar per realitzar el preprocessament de dades reals per eliminar pestanyeigs.

Bayesian image reconstruction with space-variant noise suppression

In this paper we present a Bayesian image reconstruction algorithm with entropy prior (FMAPE) that uses a space-variant hyperparameter. The spatial variation of the hyperparameter allows different degrees of resolution in areas of different statistical characteristics, thus avoiding the large residuals resulting from algorithms that use a constant hyperparameter. In the first implementation of the algorithm, we begin by segmenting a Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) reconstruction. The segmentation method is based on using a wavelet decomposition and a self-organizing neural network. The result is a predetermined number of extended regions plus a small region for each star or bright object. To assign a different value of the hyperparameter to each extended region and star, we use either feasibility tests or cross-validation methods. Once the set of hyperparameters is obtained, we carried out the final Bayesian reconstruction, leading to a reconstruction with decreased bias and excellent visual characteristics. The method has been applied to data from the non-refurbished Hubble Space Telescope. The method can be also applied to ground-based images.

Shot-noise suppression in Schottky barrier diodes

We give a theoretical interpretation of the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes based on the role played by the long range Coulomb interaction. We show that at low bias Schottky diodes display shot noise because the presence of the depletion layer makes the effects of the Coulomb interaction negligible on the current fluctuations. When the device passes from barrier to flat band conditions, the Coulomb interaction becomes active, thus introducing correlation between different current fluctuations. Therefore, the crossover between shot and thermal noise represents the suppression due to long range Coulomb interaction of the otherwise full shot noise. Similar ideas can be used to interpret the noise properties of other semiconductor devices.

Unipolar transport and shot noise in metal-semiconductor-metal structures

We carry out a self-consistent analytical theory of unipolar current and noise properties of metal-semiconductor-metal structures made of highly resistive semiconductors in the presence of an applied bias of arbitrary strength. By including the effects of the diffusion current we succeed in studying the whole range of carrier injection conditions going from low level injection, where the structure behaves as a linear resistor, to high level injection, where the structure behaves as a space charge limited diode. We show that these structures display shot noise at the highest voltages. Remarkably the crossover from Nyquist noise to shot noise exhibits a complicated behavior with increasing current where an initial square root dependence (double thermal noise) is followed by a cubic power law.

White luminescence from Si+ and C+ ion-implanted SiO2 films

The microstructural and optical analysis of SiO2 layers emitting white luminescence is reported. These structures have been synthesized by sequential Si+ and C+ ion implantation and high-temperature annealing. Their white emission results from the presence of up to three bands in the photoluminescence (PL) spectra, covering the whole visible spectral range. The microstructural characterization reveals the presence of a complex multilayer structure: Si nanocrystals are only observed outside the main C-implanted peak region, with a lower density closer to the surface, being also smaller in size. This lack of uniformity in their density has been related to the inhibiting role of C in their growth dynamics. These nanocrystals are responsible for the band appearing in the red region of the PL spectrum. The analysis of the thermal evolution of the red PL band and its behavior after hydrogenation shows that carbon implantation also prevents the formation of well passivated Si/SiO2 interfaces. On the other hand, the PL bands appearing at higher energies show the existence of two different characteristics as a function of the implanted dose. For excess atomic concentrations below or equal to 10%, the spectra show a PL band in the blue region. At higher doses, two bands dominate the green¿blue spectral region. The evolution of these bands with the implanted dose and annealing time suggests that they are related to the formation of carbon-rich precipitates in the implanted region. Moreover, PL versus depth measurements provide a direct correlation of the green band with the carbon-implanted profile. These PL bands have been assigned to two distinct amorphous phases, with a composition close to elemental graphitic carbon or stoichiometric SiC.

Low noise pixel detectors based on gated geiger mode avalanche photodiodes

The gated operation is proposed as an effective method to reduce the noise in pixel detectors based on Geiger mode avalanche photodiodes. A prototype with the sensor and the front-end electronics monolithically integrated has been fabricated with a conventional HV-CMOS process. Experimental results demonstrate the increase of the dynamic range of the sensor by applying this technique.

Gated Geiger mode avalanche photodiode pixels with integrated readout electronics for low noise photon detection

Avalanche photodiodes operated in the Geiger mode offer a high intrinsic gain as well as an excellent timing accuracy. These qualities make the sensor specially suitable for those applications where detectors with high sensitivity and low timing uncertainty are required. Moreover, they are compatible with standard CMOS technologies, allowing sensor and front-end electronics integration within the pixel cell. However, the sensor suffers from high levels of intrinsic noise, which may lead to erroneous results and limit the range of detectable signals. They also increase the amount of data that has to be stored. In this work, we present a pixel based on a Geiger-mode avalanche photodiode operated in the gated mode to reduce the probability to detect noise counts interfering with photon arrival events. The readout circuit is based on a two grounds scheme to enable low reverse bias overvoltages and consequently lessen the dark count rate. Experimental characterization of the fabricated pixel with the HV-AMS 0.35µm standard technology is also presented in this article.

Anomalous crossover between thermal and shot noise in macroscopic diffusive conductors

We predict the existence of an anomalous crossover between thermal and shot noise in macroscopic diffusive conductors. We first show that, besides thermal noise, these systems may also exhibit shot noise due to fluctuations of the total number of carriers in the system. Then we show that at increasing currents the crossover between the two noise behaviors is anomalous, in the sense that the low-frequency current spectral density displays a region with a superlinear dependence on the current up to a cubic law. The anomaly is due to the nontrivial coupling in the presence of the long-range Coulomb interaction among the three time scales relevant to the phenomenon, namely, diffusion, transit, and dielectric relaxation time.

Semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+in+ semiconductor structures: relevance of Pauli and long range Coulomb interactions

We work out a semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+-i-n+ semiconductor structures aiming at studying two fundamental physical correlations coming from Pauli exclusion principle and long-range Coulomb interaction. The theory provides a unifying scheme which, in addition to the current-voltage characteristics, describes the suppression of shot noise due to Pauli and Coulomb correlations in the whole range of system parameters and applied bias. The whole scenario is summarized by a phase diagram in the plane of two dimensionless variables related to the sample length and contact chemical potential. Here different regions of physical interest can be identified where only Coulomb or only Pauli correlations are active, or where both are present with different relevance. The predictions of the theory are proven to be fully corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.