The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

El futur de les democràcies a Bolívia i Equador

Segons L'índex de Desenvolupament Democràtic d'Amèrica Llatina (IDD-Lat 2004) tot i que a la zona hi ha símbols democràtics com eleccions periòdiques, alternança en el poder per part dels partits polítics, divisió de poders, en alguns dels països llatinoamericans també s'hi ha trobat signes de debilitat del sistema democràtic.

The Strategic Adaptation of Party Organizations to New Information and Communication Technologies : A Study of Catalan and Spanish Parties

Aquest document se centra en els casos dels dos principals partits espanyols (PP i PSOE) i catalans (PSC i CDC) en el període immediatament després de les eleccions generals espanyoles de maig de 2008, quan aquests celebraren els seus congressos. En general, es poden distingir tres tipus d'actors: en primer lloc, els ciberactivistes que tracten d'obtenir el reconeixement formal de la seva activitat en els seus partits. Així com, els líders del partit que poden intentar promoure la presència del partit en el ciberespai, però que també poden romandre indecisos perquè no és clar l'impacte electoral a la xarxa del ciberactivisme. Finalment, alguns militants tradicionals (off-line) solen ser reticents al reconeixement del ciberactivisme perquè amenaça les recompenses previstes dins del partit. Aquest article mostra com els nostres partits varen respondre al desafiament del ciberactivisme i arriba a la conclusió que la seva situació electoral, mediada per la seva ideologia, estructura organitzativa i el tipus de militància, poden ajudar-nos a comprendre el grau diferent d'institucionalització en l'organització del partit.

Intermediary and structural determinants of early childhood health in Colombia: exploring the role of communities

This study examines how structural determinants influence intermediary factors of child health inequities and how they operate through the communities where children live. In particular, we explore individual, family and community level characteristics associated with a composite indicator that quantitatively measures intermediary determinants of early childhood health in Colombia. We use data from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Adopting the conceptual framework of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), three dimensions related to child health are represented in the index: behavioural factors, psychosocial factors and health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables and take into account the discrete nature of the data, principal component analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations are employed in the index construction. Weighted multilevel models are used to examine community effects. The results show that the effect of household’s SES is attenuated when community characteristics are included, indicating the importance that the level of community development may have in mediating individual and family characteristics. The findings indicate that there is a significant variance in intermediary determinants of child health between-community, especially for those determinants linked to the health system, even after controlling for individual, family and community characteristics. These results likely reflect that whilst the community context can exert a greater influence on intermediary factors linked directly to health, in the case of psychosocial factors and the parent’s behaviours, the family context can be more important. This underlines the importance of distinguishing between community and family intervention programmes.

Les últimes eleccions del franquisme: la minielecció d'alcaldes de 1976

Article sobre les últimes eleccions del franquisme a la província de Girona

Disseny i implementació de la base de dades: Sistema de votació ciutadana a nivell Europeu a través d'Internet

La Unió Europea necessita i per tant ens encarrega, un disseny de base de dades per tald'emmagatzemar la informació de futures eleccions ciutadanes a través d'Internet.

An Inquiry into the use of illegal electoral practices and effects of political violence

This article investigates whether vote-buying and the instigation of violence in the disputed 2007 Kenyan elections were strategically motivated, and whether those affected by electoral violence changed their views towards ethno-politics and the use of violence. To answer these questions, a panel survey conducted before and after the elections is combined with external indicators of electoral violence. We find that political parties targeted vote-buying towards specific groups to weaken the support of their political rivals and to mobilize their own supporters. Furthermore, parties instigated violence strategically in areas where they were less likely to win. Although the victims of violence would prefer that parties are no longer allowed to organize in ethnic or religious lines, they are more likely to identify in ethnic terms, support the use of violence and avoid relying on the police to resolve disputes. The overall findings suggest an increased risk of electoral-violence reoccurring.

Uncertainty, electoral Incentives and political myopia

In this paper, we study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build a framework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectly observable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies with future returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised facts and with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better ...scal discipline in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Spain in Europe 2004-2008

In March of 2004, the Observatory of European Foreign Policy published a special monograph about Spain in Europe (1996-2004) in digital format. The objective of the monograph was to analyse Spain’s foreign policy agenda and strategy during the period of José María Aznar’s presidency. As the title suggests, one of the initial suppositions of the analysis is the Europeanization of Spanish foreign activities. Is that how it was? Did Aznar’s Spain see the world and relate to it through Brussels? The publication was well received, considering the number of visits received and above all the institutions which asked to link the publication to their web pages. Among these, the EUobserver published the introduction to the piece in English titled Aznar: thinking locally, acting in Europe (described by the EUobserver as a paper of utmost importance). The fact that the elections were held three days after the tragic events of the 11th of March dramatically increased interest in Spain and the implications for Europe. This publication is the second of its type, in this case analysing the period of the Zapatero government (2004-2008). Once again the starting premise (the Europeanization of the agenda and the methods employed) has been considered by the analysts. And once again the articles collected in this publication serve to “triangulate” the analysis. Spain and Europe are two vertices (more or less distant, in essence and in form) which the authors handle in their analysis of the case (third vertex).

España en Europa 1996-2004

Pensar globalmente, actuar localmente” es un slogan imprescindible en el discurso político de nuestros días. Pues bien, la práctica política, en materia de Unión Europea, de los dos gobiernos del Partido Popular, presididos por José María Aznar (1996-2004), nos permite acuñar un slogan de signo bien diferente: “pensar localmente, actuar en Europa”. En efecto, si algo caracteriza a estos ocho años de práctica política de José María Aznar es haber convertido sus preocupaciones domésticas en factor exclusivo de su estrategia europea, con independencia del contexto de cada momento y de la necesidad de encajar objetivos nacionales con objetivos europeos. De ahí que sea lógico que la campaña electoral que ha precedido a las elecciones generales del 14 de marzo no haya recogido ninguno de los temas que dominan en la agenda de la UE en el momento actual. Ni la ampliación, ni la Constitución, ni tampoco el proceso de conformación de un núcleo duro tienen cabida en el debate político españo

Spain in Europe 1996-2004

“Thinking globally, acting locally" is an essential slogan in the current political discourse. Yet, in view of the policies on the European Union carried out by the two governments of the People’s Party (PP) headed by José María Aznar between 1996 and 2004, we could coin a quite different slogan: "thinking locally, acting in Europe". Indeed, José María Aznar’s policy-making during the last eight years has been characterised by turning his domestic concerns into the ‘exclusive factor’ of his European strategy, regardless of the context and the need for fitting in national objectives with Europeans’. Hence, it was natural that the electoral campaign preceding the general elections held on Sunday, 14 March, did not deal with any of the topics prevailing in the EU’s current agenda. Neither enlargement nor the Constitution, nor the process of shaping a core group within the EU, seem to have room in Spain’s political debate...

Social Determinants of Child Health in Colombia: Can Community Education Moderate the Effect of Family Characteristics?

Contextual effects on child health have been investigated extensively in previous research. However, few studies have considered the interplay between community characteristics and individual-level variables. This study examines the influence of community education and family socioeconomic characteristics on child health (as measured by height and weight-for-age Z-scores), as well as their interactions. We adapted the Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH) framework to the context of child health. Using data from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), weighted multilevel models are fitted since the data are not self-weighting. The results show a positive impact of the level of education of other women in the community on child health, even after controlling for individual and family socioeconomic characteristics. Different pathways through which community education can substitute for the effect of family characteristics on child nutrition are found. The interaction terms highlight the importance of community education as a moderator of the impact of the mother’s own education and autonomy, on child health. In addition, the results reveal differences between height and weight-for-age indicators in their responsiveness to individual and contextual factors. Our findings suggest that community intervention programmes may have differential effects on child health. Therefore, their identification can contribute to a better targeting of child care policies.

An electronic voting platform with elliptic curve cryptography

The future of elections seems to be electronic voting systems du to its advantatges over the traditional voting. Nowadays, there are some different paradigms to ensure the security and reliability of e-voting. This document is part of a wider project which presents an e-Voting platform based on elliptic curve cryptography. It uses an hybrid combination of two of the main e-Voting paradigms to guarantee privacy and security in the counting phase, these are precisely, the mixnets and the homomorphic protocols. This document is focused in the description of the system and the maths and programming needed to solve the homomorphic part of it. In later chapters, there is a comparison between a simple mixing system and our system proposal.

From severance pay to self-insurance: Effects of severance payments savings accounts in Colombia

In 1990 Colombia replaced its traditional system of severance paymentswith a new system of severance payments savings accounts (SPSAs). Althoughseverance payments often are justified on the grounds that they provideinsurance against earnings loss, they also increase costs for employersand distort employment decisions. The impact of severance payments dependslargely on how much of the costs to employers can be shifted to workers.The theoretical analysis in this paper shows that, in contrast to atraditional system of severance payments, the system of SPSAs facilitatesthe shifting of severance payments costs to workers in the form of lowerwages. Empirical results using the Colombian National Household Surveysindicate that the introduction of SPSAs shifted around 80% of the totalseverance payments contributions to wages and had a positive effect onweekly hours. Results using the 1997 Colombian Living Standards MeasurementSurvey suggest that, although SPSAs in part replaced employer insurancewith self-insurance, SPSAs continue to play a consumption smoothing rolefor the non-employed.