The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.

An Analysis of black-box optimization problems in reinsurance: evolutionary-based approaches

Black-box optimization problems (BBOP) are de ned as those optimization problems in which the objective function does not have an algebraic expression, but it is the output of a system (usually a computer program). This paper is focussed on BBOPs that arise in the eld of insurance, and more speci cally in reinsurance problems. In this area, the complexity of the models and assumptions considered to de ne the reinsurance rules and conditions produces hard black-box optimization problems, that must be solved in order to obtain the optimal output of the reinsurance. The application of traditional optimization approaches is not possible in BBOP, so new computational paradigms must be applied to solve these problems. In this paper we show the performance of two evolutionary-based techniques (Evolutionary Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization). We provide an analysis in three BBOP in reinsurance, where the evolutionary-based approaches exhibit an excellent behaviour, nding the optimal solution within a fraction of the computational cost used by inspection or enumeration methods.

Electronic couplings and on-site energies for hole transfer in DNA: systematic quantum mechanical/molecular dynamic study

The electron hole transfer (HT) properties of DNA are substantially affected by thermal fluctuations of the π stack structure. Depending on the mutual position of neighboring nucleobases, electronic coupling V may change by several orders of magnitude. In the present paper, we report the results of systematic QM/molecular dynamic (MD) calculations of the electronic couplings and on-site energies for the hole transfer. Based on 15 ns MD trajectories for several DNA oligomers, we calculate the average coupling squares 〈 V2 〉 and the energies of basepair triplets X G+ Y and X A+ Y, where X, Y=G, A, T, and C. For each of the 32 systems, 15 000 conformations separated by 1 ps are considered. The three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush method is used to derive electronic couplings for HT between neighboring basepairs. The adiabatic energies and dipole moment matrix elements are computed within the INDO/S method. We compare the rms values of V with the couplings estimated for the idealized B -DNA structure and show that in several important cases the couplings calculated for the idealized B -DNA structure are considerably underestimated. The rms values for intrastrand couplings G-G, A-A, G-A, and A-G are found to be similar, ∼0.07 eV, while the interstrand couplings are quite different. The energies of hole states G+ and A+ in the stack depend on the nature of the neighboring pairs. The X G+ Y are by 0.5 eV more stable than X A+ Y. The thermal fluctuations of the DNA structure facilitate the HT process from guanine to adenine. The tabulated couplings and on-site energies can be used as reference parameters in theoretical and computational studies of HT processes in DNA

Conformations of poly{G}-poly{C} π stacks with high hole mobility

Charge transfer properties of DNA depend strongly on the π stack conformation. In the present paper, we identify conformations of homogeneous poly-{G}-poly-{C} stacks that should exhibit high charge mobility. Two different computational approaches were applied. First, we calculated the electronic coupling squared, V2, between adjacent base pairs for all 1 ps snapshots extracted from 15 ns molecular dynamics trajectory of the duplex G15. The average value of the coupling squared 〈 V2 〉 is found to be 0.0065 eV2. Then we analyze the base-pair and step parameters of the configurations in which V2 is at least an order of magnitude larger than 〈 V2 〉. To obtain more consistent data, ∼65 000 configurations of the (G:C)2 stack were built using systematic screening of the step parameters shift, slide, and twist. We show that undertwisted structures (twist<20°) are of special interest, because the π stack conformations with strong electronic couplings are found for a wide range of slide and shift. Although effective hole transfer can also occur in configurations with twist=30° and 35°, large mutual displacements of neighboring base pairs are required for that. Overtwisted conformation (twist38°) seems to be of limited interest in the context of effective hole transfer. The results may be helpful in the search for DNA based elements for nanoelectronics

Charge transfer in DNA: hole charge is confined to a single base pair due to solvation effects

We include solvation effects in tight-binding Hamiltonians for hole states in DNA. The corresponding linear-response parameters are derived from accurate estimates of solvation energy calculated for several hole charge distributions in DNA stacks. Two models are considered: (A) the correction to a diagonal Hamiltonian matrix element depends only on the charge localized on the corresponding site and (B) in addition to this term, the reaction field due to adjacent base pairs is accounted for. We show that both schemes give very similar results. The effects of the polar medium on the hole distribution in DNA are studied. We conclude that the effects of polar surroundings essentially suppress charge delocalization in DNA, and hole states in (GC)n sequences are localized on individual guanines

Derivats financers al mercat espanyol: el Model de Black-Scholes i corbes de volatilitat per opcions sobre l'índex niniIBEX-35

El nostre treball es centrarà en conèixer i aprendre les nocions bàsiques del mercat financer espanyol, primer; i aplicar uns coneixements per veure si es verifica unahipòtesi plantejada, després. La incògnita que volem resoldre és la següent: comprovarsi tots els supòsits i resultats que faciliten els models teòrics emprats en l’estudi dels mercats financers a l’hora de la veritat es compleixen.D’entre els múltiples conceptes que ens proporcionen els estudis de mercatsfinancers ens centrarem sobretot en el model de Black-Scholes i els somriures devolatilitat per desenvolupar el nostre treball. Després de cercar les dades necessàries a través de la web del M.E.F.F., entrevistar-nos amb professionals del sector i fer un seguiment d’aproximadament dos mesos dels moviments de les opcions sobre l’Índex Mini-Íbex 35, amb l’ajuda d’un programa informàtic en llenguatge C, hem calculat les corbes de volatilitat de les opcions sobre l’Índex Mini-Íbex 35.Les conclusions més importants que hem extret són que el Model de Black-Scholes, malgrat va revolucionar el món dels mercats financers, està basat en 2 supòsits que no es compleixen a la realitat: la distribució lognormal del preu de les accions i unavolatilitat constant. Tal i com hem pogut comprovar, la corba de volatilitat de lesopcions sobre l’Índex Mini-Íbex 35 és decreixent amb el preu d’exercici i laMoneyness, tal i com sostenen les teories dels somriures de volatilitat; per tant, no és constant. A més, hem comprovat que a mesura que s’apropa el venciment d’una opció,el preu acordat de l’actiu subjacent a l’opció s’apropa al preu de mercat.

Local volatility changes in the black-scholes model

In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.

The effects of electron-hole separation on the photoconductivity of individual metal oxide nanowires

The responses of individual ZnO nanowires to UV light demonstrate that the persistent photoconductivity (PPC) state is directly related to the electron¿hole separation near the surface. Our results demonstrate that the electrical transport in these nanomaterials is influenced by the surface in two different ways. On the one hand, the effective mobility and the density of free carriers are determined by recombination mechanisms assisted by the oxidizing molecules in air. This phenomenon can also be blocked by surface passivation. On the other hand, the surface built-in potential separates the photogenerated electron¿hole pairs and accumulates holes at the surface. After illumination, the charge separation makes the electron¿hole recombination difficult and originates PPC. This effect is quickly reverted after increasing either the probing current (self-heating by Joule dissipation) or the oxygen content in air (favouring the surface recombination mechanisms). The model for PPC in individual nanowires presented here illustrates the intrinsic potential of metal oxide nanowires to develop optoelectronic devices or optochemical sensors with better and new performances.

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

Magnetic-field dependence of hole levels in self-assembled InGaAs quantum dots

Recent magnetotransport experiments of holes in InGaAs quantum dots [D. Reuter, P. Kailuweit, A. D. Wieck, U. Zeitler, O. Wibbelhoff, C. Meier, A. Lorke, and J. C. Maan, Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 026808 (2005)] are interpreted by employing a multiband k¿p Hamiltonian, which considers the interaction between heavy hole and light hole subbands explicitly. No need of invoking an incomplete energy shell filling is required within this model. The crucial role we ascribe to the heavy hole-light hole interaction is further supported by one-band local-spin-density functional calculations, which show that Coulomb interactions do not induce any incomplete hole shell filling and therefore cannot account for the experimental magnetic field dispersion.

Evaporation and coarsening dynamics with open boundaries

We present a study of the evaporation dynamics of a substance undergoing a coarsening process. The system is modeled by the Cahn-Hilliard equation with absorbing boundaries. We have found that the dynamics, although of a diffusive nature, is much slower than the usual one without coarsening. Analytical and simulation results are in reasonable agreement.

Competitive evaporation in arrays of droplets

We consider the evaporation of periodic arrays of initially equal droplets in two-dimensional systems with open (absorbing) boundaries. Our study is based on the numerical solution of the Cahn-Hilliard equation. We show that due to cooperative effects the droplets which are further from the boundary may evaporate earlier than those in the boundary¿s vicinity. The time evolution of the overall amount of matter in the system is also studied.

Ultraviolet optical and microstructural properties of MgF2 and LaF3 coatings deposited by ion-beam sputtering and boat and electron-beam evaporation

Single layers of MgF2 and LaF3 were deposited upon superpolished fused-silica and CaF2 substrates by ion-beam sputtering (IBS) as well as by boat and electron beam (e-beam) evaporation and were characterized by a variety of complementary analytical techniques. Besides undergoing photometric and ellipsometric inspection, the samples were investigated at 193 and 633 nm by an optical scatter measurement facility. The structural properties were assessed with atomic-force microscopy, x-ray diffraction, TEM techniques that involved conventional thinning methods for the layers. For measurement of mechanical stress in the coatings, special silicon substrates were coated and analyzed. The dispersion behavior of both deposition materials, which was determined on the basis of various independent photometric measurements and data reduction techniques, is in good agreement with that published in the literature and with the bulk properties of the materials. The refractive indices of the MgF2 coatings ranged from 1.415 to 1.440 for the wavelength of the ArF excimer laser (193 nm) and from 1.435 to 1.465 for the wavelength of the F2 excimer laser (157 nm). For single layers of LaF3 the refractive indices extended from 1.67 to 1.70 at 193 nm to ~1.80 at 157 nm. The IBS process achieves the best homogeneity and the lowest surface roughness values (close to 1 nmrms) of the processes compared in the joint experiment. In contrast to MgF2 boat and e-beam evaporated coatings, which exhibit tensile mechanical stress ranging from 300 to 400 MPa, IBS coatings exhibit high compressive stress of as much as 910 MPa. A similar tendency was found for coating stress in LaF3 single layers. Experimental results are discussed with respect to the microstructural and compositional properties as well as to the surface topography of the coatings.

Computer-aided procedure for optimization of layer thickness uniformity in thermal evaporation physical vapor deposition chambers for lens coating

A computer-aided method to improve the thickness uniformity attainable when coating multiple substrates inside a thermal evaporation physical vapor deposition unit is presented. The study is developed for the classical spherical (dome-shaped) calotte and also for a plane sector reversible holder setup. This second arrangement is very useful for coating both sides of the substrate, such as antireflection multilayers on lenses. The design of static correcting shutters for both kinds of configurations is also discussed. Some results of using the method are presented as an illustration.