La història es repeteix?: estudi comparatiu de la crisi del 29 amb l'actual

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. L’objectiu d’aquest treball ha estat donar pautes de reflexió sobre la crisi i el moment econòmic actual. Es volia valorar si era certa la idea que la situació econòmica dels nostres dies té certs paral•lelismes amb la crisi que va patir el món occidental el 1929. Per tal d’establir la veracitat de la hipòtesi plantejada es va dissenyar un model d’investigació basat en les entrevistes i en el recull i buidatge d’articles de premsa relacionats amb el tema, durant un període de temps no gaire extens, període que correspon als tres mesos a partir dels quals s’evidencia la situació de crisi. Al mateix temps era interessant copsar l’opinió de dos grans mestres en l’estudi de l’economia del nostre país, el Dr. Fabià Estapé i el Dr. Anton Costas, mestre i deixeble respectivament.. Sense esperar massa sorpreses, la crisi actual presenta molts punts de similitud amb el procés inciat l’any 1929. Ambdós esdeveniments econòmics tenen molts punts de connexió i les mesures proposades per solucionar o per pal•liar les conseqüències són també similars. En tots dos casos la figura de l’economista britànic John Maynard Keynes és cabdal per part dels diversos governs a l’hora de reconduir i adreçar la situació econòmica.

Sleep 4 less

Treball de recerca realitzat per alumnes d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Aquest treball es tracta en la creació d’un projecte empresarial, és a dir, d’una planificació estratègica que afecta a tots els àmbits de la empresa al llarg d’un període de temps i que té per objectiu analitzar la viabilitat, examinar els objectius i descobrir els inconvenients del mateix. En concret s’ha projectat és un hostal ‘low cost’. Alhora de comprovar la viabilitat del projecte, s’han hagut de realitzar els tests corresponents per saber si tindria èxit o no. I tots han demostrat un resultat factible, ja que, encara que van sorgir problemes amb l’acceptació d’aquest nou estil, concretament en el fet d’haver de compartir habitació amb altres persones, al poder oferir altres tipus d’habitacions i en el cas de compartir habitació donar molta seguretat, els anàlisis ens han donat uns resultats acceptables. S’han realitzat també quadres financers, préstecs, calculat les despeses d’inici d’empresa i de manteniment, publicitat, despeses de personal, i finalment aquest també han donat un resultat de viabilitat positiu.

El impacto diferencial del capital social sobre la salud de la población autóctona y los inmigrantes residentes en Cataluña

El fenómeno de la inmigración está transformando las sociedades receptoras. Un creciente número de estudios revela que la reciente inmigración en España es principalmente motivada por razones económicas y por tanto se trata de una población compuesta por gente joven, cualificada y sana. Por otro lado, hay cada vez más evidencia sobre la relevancia del capital social sobre la salud. Nuestro trabajo pretende crear un puente entre la literatura sobre la inmigración y la que relaciona el capital social y la salud. El presente trabajo tiene un doble objetivo. Por un lado, queremos dilucidar la verdadera relación entre el capital social y la salud utilizando por primera vez datos de Cataluña. Por otro lado, pretendemos determinar un posible efecto diferencial del capital social sobre la salud en tres grupos de población, más concretamente, los nacidos en Cataluña, los españoles nacidos fuera de Cataluña y los inmigrantes extranjeros. Utilizamos datos de la Encuesta de Salud de Cataluña 2006, que contiene una muestra representativa del colectivo inmigrante. Los indicadores contextuales provienen de fuentes alternativas. Para determinar la relación entre el capital social y la salud (salud auto-percibida y salud mental, GHQ-12), controlando por otros factores determinantes, estimados modelos multinivel separadamente para las tres muestras poblacionales. Distinguimos entre capital social individual y capital social comunitario. Nuestros resultados revelan que el capital social individual tiene mayor impacto sobre la salud que el capital social comunitario. Sin embargo, independientemente de los indicadores de capital social empleados en el análisis, observamos que el capital social ejerce un efecto beneficioso tanto para la salud física como la salud mental en Cataluña. Además, encontramos que las redes sociales son más importantes para la salud de la población autóctona, que para la salud de los inmigrantes. Creemos que potenciar la acumulación de capital social puede ser un instrumento potencialmente eficaz (y que requiere, en comparación con otras medidas políticas, menos recursos económicos) para la consecución de los objetivos relacionados con la mejora de la salud y la reducción de las desigualdades en salud entre los colectivos de nativos e inmigrantes. Palabras clave: estado de salud, capital social, inmigración

Relationship between technological progress, capital elasticity and emissions of industrial pollutants for the production sectors in Catalonia

As is known, the Kyoto Protocol proposes to reinforce national policies for emission reduction and, furthermore, to cooperate with other contracting parties. In this context, it would be necessary to assess these emissions, both in general and specifically, by pollutants and/or among productive sectors. The object of this paper is precisely to estimate the polluting emissions of industrial origin in Catalonia in the year 2001, in a multivariate context which explicitly allows a distinction to be made between the polluter and/or the productive sector causing this emission. Six pollutants considered, four directly related to greenhouse effect. A multi-level model, with two levels, pollutants and productive sectors, was specified. Both technological progress and elasticity of capital were introduced as random effects. Hence, it has been permitted that these coefficients vary according to one or other level. The most important finding in this paper is that elasticity of capital has been estimated as very non-elastic, with a range which varies between 0.162 (the paper industry) and 0.556 (commerce). In fact, and generally speaking, the greater capital the sector has, the less elasticity of capital has been estimated. Key words: Kyoto protocol, multilevel model, technological progress

The Analysis of Accounting Multipliers: The NAMEA Approach in the Case of Catalonia

The aim of this paper is the analysis of the Catalan economy (2001) with the use of a National Accounting Matrix with environmental accounts (NAMEA) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. We will focus on the analysis of the emission multipliers and we will also analyse the impact of a 10% reduction in greenhouse emissions on emission multipliers. This emission-reduction percentage would bring the Catalan economy into compliance with the maximum emissions level allowed by the Kyoto Protocol. We consider three possible scenarios that would allow this goal to be met. First, we will simulate a 10% reduction in regional emissions and a 5% drop in the endogenous income of the multipliers' model (production, factorial and private income). Second, we will simulate a 10% reduction in emissions and a 10% increase in endogenous income. Finally, we will simulate a 10% reduction in emissions and a 5% increase in endogenous income. Additionally, we will analyse the decomposition of the emission multipliers into own effects, open effects and circular effects to capture the different channels of the emission generation process. Keywords: NAMEA, emission multipliers, Kyoto Protocol.

Some Considerations Concerning Regulation and Competition in the Port Sector

The aim of this paper is to discuss the circumstances in which the process of competition between ports takes place in Spain − circumstances arising from the way the port system is currently set up and from the regulations governing it. The importance of this matter lies both in the fact that intensified competition between ports is the way to set about boosting the efficiency of the Spanish port sector and in the relevance of this business to the economies of the regions in which the ports are located. It is precisely for this reason that the reform instituted in 1992 aimed to combine balanced development of the national port system with the defence of the interests of autonomous regions. To this end the current regulatory framework provides for the possibility of port authorities drawing up their own competitive strategies, but makes their implementation conditional upon approval of their business plan by the Spanish state port authority. The latter body coordinates the national port system to ensure the guidelines set by the central government authorities are followed in the field of transport. However, the scale of the differences which exist among both the size of facilities and their relevant markets on the one hand, and the financial and economic circumstances of each of them on the other, suggest that each port authority's needs must be very different. Consequently, their competitive strategies must also be very different. It is therefore valid to ask whether coping with this diversity calls for different guidelines to regulate their freedom of action. Key words: Competition, regulation, port sector JEL classification numbers: L1, L5, L9

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Like milk or wine: Does firm performance improve with age?

Our empirical literature review shows that little is known about how firm performance changes with age, presumably because of the paucity of data on firm age. For Spanish manufacturing firms, we analyse the firm performance related to firm age between 1998 and 2006. We find evidence that firms improve with age, because ageing firms are observed to have steadily increasing levels of productivity, higher profits, larger size, lower debt ratios, and higher equity ratios. Furthermore, older firms are better able to convert sales growth into subsequent growth of profits and productivity. On the other hand, we also found evidence that firm performance deteriorates with age. Older firms have lower expected growth rates of sales, profits and productivity, they have lower profitability levels (when other variables such as size are controlled for), and also that they appear to be less capable to convert employment growth into growth of sales, profits and productivity.

Technology, business models and network structure in the airline industry

Network airlines have been increasingly focusing their operations on hub airports through the exploitation of connecting traffic, allowing them to take advantage of economies of traffic density, which are unequivocal in the airline industry. Less attention has been devoted to airlines? decisions on point-to-point thin routes, which could be served using different aircraft technologies and different business models. This paper examines, both theoretically and empirically, the impact on airlines ?networks of the two major innovations in the airline industry in the last two decades: the regional jet technology and the low-cost business model. We show that, under certain circumstances, direct services on point-to-point thin routes can be viable and thus airlines may be interested in deviating passengers out of the hub.

Is it redistribution or centralization? On the determinants of government investment in infrastructure

The dilemma efficiency versus equity, together with political partisan interests, has received increasing attention to explain the territorial allocation of investments. However, centralization intended to introduce or reinforce hierarchization in the political system has not been object as of now of empirical analysis. Our main contribution to the literature is providing evidence that meta-political objectives related to the ordering of political power and administration influence regional investment. In this way, we find evidence that network mode’s (roads and railways) investment programs are influenced by the centralization strategy of investing near to the political capital, while investment effort in no-network modes (airports and ports) appears to be positively related to distance. Since investment in surface transportation infrastructures is much higher than that in airports and ports, and taken into account that regions surrounding the political capital are poorer than the average, we suggest that centralization rather than redistribution has been the driver for the concentration of public investment on these regions.

A model structure for coloured operads in symmetric spectra

We describe a model structure for coloured operads with values in the category of symmetric spectra (with the positive model structure), in which fibrations and weak equivalences are defined at the level of the underlying collections. This allows us to treat R-module spectra (where R is a cofibrant ring spectrum) as algebras over a cofibrant spectrum-valued operad with R as its first term. Using this model structure, we give sufficient conditions for homotopical localizations in the category of symmetric spectra to preserve module structures.

Identificación de variedades de vitis vinifera procedentes de diferentes regiones del mundo mediante tècnica de biologia molecular de los microsatéllites

El objetivo de este estudio se centró en analizar una colección privada de germoplasma de Vitis vinifera L., de 338 cultivares procedentes de 24 países, para caracterizarlas creando una base de datos, utilizando 11 marcadores microsatélites o SSR (Simple Sequence Repeat). Como resultado se encontraron que algunas de las muestras analizadas presentaron un perfil idéntico de SSR, indicando que se trata de una sinonimia (la misma variedad pero con diferente nombre). Se detectaron 293 perfiles únicos. Adicionalmente, 15 pares de variedades presentaron diferencias en un solo locus y otros 7 grupos difieren en 2 loci, lo cual indicaría la alta proximidad genética entre esas variedades, sin llegar a ser la misma. El germoplasma analizado cuenta con una compleja biodiversidad varietal que se debe preservar. El estudio se realizó programando para el primer año la revisión bibliográfica detallada, recolección de las hojas y el inicio de la puesta a punto de la metodología, en el segundo año se completa la puesta a punto de la metodología, se trituran las hojas y se realiza la extraccinón del ADN. El tercer año se emplea para amplificar los fragmentos de ADN por medio de la PCR (reacción en cadena de la polimerasa), obtener la longitud de los fragmentos con un secuenciador ABI PRISM 310, valorar resultados y realizar repeticiones. El último año se analizan los resultados obtenidos, se realizan repeticiones pertinentes y se comienza la redacción de artículos científicos.

The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-deposit-Ratio approach

Based on the Ahumada et al. (2007, Review of Income and Wealth) critique we revise existing estimates of the size of the German underground economy. Among other things, it turns out that most of these estimates are untenable and that the tax pressure induced size of the German underground economy may be much lower than previously thought. To this extent, German policy and law makers have been misguided during the last three decades. Therefore, we introduce the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio (MCDR) approach, which is not subject to the recent critique and apply it to Germany for the period 1960 to 2008. JEL: O17, Q41, C22, Keywords: underground economy, shadow economy, cash-depositratio, currency demand approach, MIMIC approach

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems: An application to Spanish CO2 emissions

Analysis of gas emissions by the input-output subsystem approach provides detailed insight into pollution generation in an economy. Structural decomposition analysis, on the other hand, identifies the factors behind the changes in key variables over time. Extending the input-output subsystem model to account for the changes in these variables reveals the channels by which environmental burdens are caused and transmitted throughout the production system. In this paper we propose a decomposition of the changes in the components of CO2 emissions captured by an input-output subsystems representation. The empirical application is for the Spanish service sector, and the economic and environmental data are for years 1990 and 2000. Our results show that services increased their CO2 emissions mainly because of a rise in emissions generated by non-services to cover the final demand for services. In all service activities, the decomposed effects show an increase in CO2 emissions due to a decrease in emission coefficients (i.e., emissions per unit of output) compensated by an increase in emissions caused both by the input-output coefficients and the rise in demand for services. Finally, large asymmetries exist not only in the quantitative changes in the CO2 emissions of the various services but also in the decomposed effects of these changes. Keywords: structural decomposition analysis, input-output subsystems, CO2 emissions, service sector.