The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

De la baja de un buque de la Armada como recurso socio-económico y ambiental: estrategias para la cohesión y formación del tejido social, el futuro pesquero y la protección ambiental

En la actualidad, la Armada española cuenta con un total de 103 buques (LOBA, 2009). Cada uno de ellos tiene una misión específica de acuerdo a sus características. Dicha misión condicionará la vida útil del navío. Cuando un buque es dado de baja, surgen las siguientes preguntas: ¿Qué hacer con ellos? ¿Tienen alguna utilidad? ¿Generan un impacto ambiental? En este proyecto, se presentan diferentes propuestas que tienen como finalidad obtener el mayor beneficio del recurso. Cada una de ellas buscará el máximo rédito en aspectos como la cohesión en el tejido social y la socio-economía de una zona determinada y la protección del medio marino junto al futuro de la pesca de arrastre en nuestro país. A lo largo del trabajo, se verá la dificultad de desguazar buques con gran eslora en nuestros astilleros, así como también los problemas administrativos y políticos a los que se enfrentan asociaciones y ayuntamientos que quieren adquirir un buque, para convertirlo en un museo o en un pecio, respectivamente. El objetivo principal es dar a conocer cuál es la situación, pero sin entrar a determinar qué opción sería mejor para cada tipo de navío.

La dimensió política de la construcció social del Programari Lliure

Aquest estudi es presenta com una aproximació al fenomen del Programari Lliure des de la seva vessant política. Lluny de tractar-se d'una alternativa tecnològica la naturalesa de la qual seria explicable en termes exclusivament tècnics - la qual cosa no faria sinó atribuir-li una presumpta neutralitat tecnològica -, ací assumim que tota tecnologia s'inscriu en un procés de construcció social en el que incideixen factors de tipus social, econòmic, polític i/o moral que rebasen allò merament tècnic. Creguem que en el cas del Programari Lliure es donen cita tots aquests factors, sent el plànol polític el que adquireix un especial protagonisme en dit procés de construcció i que mereix de tractament aïllat. D'aquesta manera, la semàntica de allò polític serà examinada en les seves diferents accepcions a través de dos plànols complementaris. Per una banda, rastrejant els fonaments culturals que subjauen al Programari Lliure i les seves possibles concomitàncies de contingut polític. D'altra, descrivint la praxis actual d'actors heterogenis (corporacions, governs, associacions d'usuaris,...) desenvolupada en un marc global d'interacció col·lectiva, que es revisteix igualment, producte de la confrontació estratègica d'interpretacions i discursos particulars sobre el mateix, d'un caràcter indubtablement polític.

El biaix social de les elits polítiques catalanes. El cas dels Governs de la Generalitat (1999 ¿ 2003 ¿ 2006 ¿ 2010)

Després de 30 anys de la restauració de la Generalitat es desconeix gairebé tot del perfil social de l¿elit política Governamental catalana, aquest Treball fa una aproximació inicial al tema a partir dels últims quatre Governs de la Generalitat de Catalunya. Els seus membres presenten biaix social respecte la població d¿acord amb el model d¿aglutinació de les elits polítiques, tot i això el model de Desproporció Social Creixent només es valida respecte el gènere. El seu perfil és el d¿un home, de més edat que la mitjana, nascut a Catalunya, amb la carrera prèvia desenvolupada a Barcelona ciutat, amb una formació molt per sobre de la mitjana i de professió economista. Aquest perfil no és exactament el mateix que el dels Parlamentaris regionals espanyols, les diferències es centren l¿edat i la professió mentre que el gènere, l¿origen i el nivell de formació coincideixen. S¿observa també que els Governs d¿esquerra-centre esquerra presenten un percentatge lleugerament superior de dones que la resta, els membres vinculats amb PANE són més joves, incorporen menys dones, menys immigrants interiors, menys educadors i no presenten credencials educatives sensiblement diferents del membres vinculats a partits d¿àmbit estatal.

Inmigrantes en formación: desplazamientos y fijaciones de la cohesión social promovida por el Estado del Bienestar en la formación para la inserción laboral de las personas migrantes en Barcelona

En la investigación llevada a cabo nos hemos aproximado, desde un punto de vista cualitativo, a los recursos de formación para la inserción sociolaboral dirigidos a personas inmigrantes en la ciudad de Barcelona. Dicha formación forma parte de los recursos del sistema de bienestar español, caracterizado como mediterráneo (Esping-Andersen, 1990; Ferrara 1996; Moreno, 2002); y responde a los lineamientos de las políticas de integración dirigidas al mencionado colectivo. Para llevar a cabo el trabajo hemos adoptado la perspectiva metodológica de Antropología de las Políticas (Shore y Wright, 1997). La construcción del marco teórico bebió de los aportes que enfatizan el papel político de los Estados-nación en relación con los procesos migratorios (Sayad, 2010), señalando que la inmigración, lejos de ser un proceso que les “sucede” a las sociedades de recepción, es un fenómeno conformado por éstas (Geddes, 2006). La profunda transformación en los modos de la cohesión social (Castel, 1997) en las sociedades de recepción de personas inmigradas constituyen el contexto en el cual actúan las políticas de integración. A través de las condiciones de acceso a los recursos de formación para la inserción sociolaboral, mediante los contenidos impartidos y las maneras en que lo hacen, se configuran los inmigrantes “deseados” e “indeseados” funcionando como “fronteras organizativas”. Los resultados del análisis, indican que se espera que las personas inmigradas sean sujetos disponibles y activos, donde la formación emerge más que como un derecho que favorece y consolida la cohesión social o la “integración”, como un recurso que hay que “merecer”. Paralelamente a dicha emergencia, la formación se perfila como un dispositivo que antes que servir para la promoción social es un débil sustituto del empleo, fatigosamente anhelado por las personas que llevan a cabo los procesos formativos.

Uncertainty, electoral Incentives and political myopia

In this paper, we study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build a framework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectly observable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies with future returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised facts and with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better ...scal discipline in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Autonomía comunitaria y caciquismo: identidad étnica, control social y violencia en una comunidad mixe de Oaxaca

La etnografía de la comunidad mixe de Salto de la Tuxpana y del grave conflicto que se produjo entre 2005 y 2007 es el punto de partida del presente artículo. La investigación realizada arrojó como resultado más destacado el descubrimiento de un violento cacicazgo, legitimado ideológicamente en la autonomía comunitaria, la identidad étnica y el reclamo de una jurisdicción propia, y asentado firmemente sobre tres mecanismos de control social: protección a través de la Policía Comunitaria Armada, acceso a la tierra y acceso a los programas de «desarrollo». El caciquismo se define como el régimen político personalista, basado en estructuras clientelares, que monopoliza y controla recursos y votos. También se propone la hipótesis de que la mayor parte de la violencia desplegada por los caciques es el resultado del proceso de reproducción social del mismo sistema político, cuando se genera una faccionalización simétrica de la comunidad, después de un periodo de estabilidad complementaria.

Political Humor as a confrontational tool against the Syrian regime: A study case: Syria, 15th March 2011 – 15th May 2012

The aim of this working paper is to analyze the inclusion of political humor into the set of actions used by opponents to the Syrian regime during the first year of a state-wide uprising in 2011. The research argues that although political humor has traditionally been seen mainly as a concealed voice against dominant elites, it can nevertheless take a confrontational stance and challenge a regime. In this paper we assess the role of political humor in challenging the legitimacy of the Syrian State through the battle for the signification of events. We will work with a theoretical framework that draws its assumptions from social movements’ studies and cultural studies. Through the assessment of the importance of discourse and the role of ideological domination to a regime we will see how the first year of the Syrian uprising included widespread acts of political humor as part of the strategy against the regime.

The Farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.

Political mobilisation and models of trade unionism : Southern Europe in comparative perspective

The relationship between union membership and political mobilization has been studied under many perspectives, but quantitative cross-national analyses have been hampered by the absence of international comparable survey data until the first round of the European Social Survey (ESS-2002) was made available. Using different national samples from this survey in four moments of time (2002, 2004 and 2006), our paper provides evidence of cross-country divergence in the empirical association between political mobilisation and trade union membership. Cross-national differences in union members’ political mobilization, we argue, can be explained by the existence of models of unionism that in turn differ with respect to two decisive factors: the institutionalisation of trade union activity and the opportunities left-wing parties have available for gaining access to executive power.

Predictors of political orientation among US-born Mexican Americans: cultural identification, acculturation attitudes and socioeconomic status

With each passing election, U.S. political campaigns have renewed their efforts in courting the “Latino vote,” yet the Latino population is not a culturally homogenous voting bloc. This study examined how cultural identifications and acculturation attitudes in U.S. born Mexican Americans interacted with socioeconomic status (SES) to predict political orientation. Individuals who held stronger Mexican identity and supported biculturalism as an acculturation strategy had a more liberal orientation, while belonging to a higher SES group and holding stronger assimilation attitudes predicted a less liberal orientation. Mexican cultural identification interacted with SES such that those who held a weaker Mexican identity, but came from a higher social class were less liberal and more moderate in their political orientation. Weak Mexican identification and higher SES also predicted weaker endorsement of bicultural acculturation attitudes, which in turn, mediated the differences in political orientation. The acceptance of one’s ethnic identity and endorsement of bicultural attitudes predicted a more liberal political orientation. In light of these findings, political candidates should be cautious in how they pander to Latino constituents—referencing the groups’ ethnic culture or customs may distance constituents who are not strongly identified with their ethnic culture.

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "government economizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory". The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Social capital, government expenditures, and growth

Countries with greater social capital have higher economic growth. We show that socialcapital is also highly positively correlated across countries with government expenditureon education. We develop an infinite-horizon model of public spending and endogenousstochastic growth that explains both facts through frictions in political agency whenvoters have imperfect information. In our model, the government provides servicesthat yield immediate utility, and investment that raises future productivity. Voters aremore likely to observe public services, so politicians have electoral incentives to underprovidepublic investment. Social capital increases voters' awareness of all governmentactivity. As a consequence, both politicians' incentives and their selection improve.In the dynamic equilibrium, both the amount and the efficiency of public investmentincrease, permanently raising the growth rate.

The political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politiciansperceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters.To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknownand investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politiciansmake too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannotbe fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary tothe conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may,under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study howpolitical rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistentwith a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection.They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economicuncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Bowling for fascism: Social capital and the rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany, 1919-33

Social capital a dense network of associations facilitating cooperation within a community typically leads to positive political and economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a large literature following Putnam. A growing literature emphasizes the potentially "dark side" of social capital. This paper examines the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany by analyzing Nazi party entry rates in a cross-section of towns and cities. Before the Nazi Party's triumphs at the ballot box, it built an extensive organizational structure, becoming a mass movement with nearly a million members by early 1933. We show that dense networks of civic associations such as bowling clubs, animal breeder associations, or choirs facilitated the rise of the Nazi Party. The effects are large: Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least one-third faster growth in the strength of the Nazi Party. IV results based on 19th century measures of social capital reinforce our conclusions. In addition, all types of associations veteran associations and non-military clubs, "bridging" and "bonding" associations positively predict NS party entry. These results suggest that social capital in Weimar Germany aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany's first democracy.