Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Determinació de diferents compostos bioactius en ingredients naturals per a l'elaboració de bombons funcionals amb beneficis cardiovasculars

Durant les darreres dècades, i degut, principalment, a un canvi en els hàbits alimentaris, hi ha hagut un augment a nivell mundial de malalties cròniques (l’obesitat, malalties cardiovasculars, etc.). En els països mediterranis hi ha menys incidència d’aquestes malalties i sembla ser que això es deu a l’anomenada dieta mediterrània. La dieta mediterrània es caracteritza per una combinació d’oli d’oliva com a grassa principal, verdures, hortalisses i fruites en abundància, lleguminoses, fruits secs, formatges i iogurt, peix, pa, pasta, cereals i els seus derivats i un consum moderat de vi i carns. Aquest model alimentari, ric en tocoferols, fitosterols i fitoestanols que ajuden a reduir el contingut de colesterol en sang, fa que en les poblacions mediterrànies hi hagi menys incidència de malalties cardiovasculars. Aquests compostos inhibeixen el deteriorament oxidatiu dels olis, actuen com agent antipolimerització per olis de fregir. Tenen capacitat de reduir els nivells de colesterol, evitant la incidència de malalties cardiovasculars. Els fitoesterols y fitoestanols es poden trobar en forma lliure o esterificada amb àcids grassos, àcids fenòlics i glucosa. Els objectius d’ aquest treball han estat, primer en el desenvolupament de mètodes d'anàlisi ràpids, fiables i robusts dels tocoferols, fitoesterols i fitoestanols i la seva aplicació en fruits sec, oli de segó, oli de pinyol de raïm i productes que els continguin. El primer mètode va estar basat en la cromatografía líquida (HPLC-DAD) amb extracció en fase sòlida (SPE) com tècnica alternativa a la saponificació para la determinació de fitoesterols lliures. Aquest mètode va estar aplicada a mostres de bombons que contenia fitoesterols. El segon mètode va estar basat en la cromatografia de gasos (GCFID) amb aponificació i SPE per quantificar fitoesterols i fitoestanols lliures, esterificats i totals. En els documents annexos es descriuen a profunditat els mètodes desenvolupats.

Political alliances and organisational change in political parties: a framework for analysis

This article sets out a theoretical framework for the study of organisational change within political alliances. To achieve this objective it uses as a starting point a series of premises, the most notable of which include the definition of organisational change as a discrete, complex and focussed phenomenon of changes in power within the party. In accordance with these premises, it analyses the synthetic model of organisational change proposed by Panebianco (1988). After examining its limitations, a number of amendments are proposed to adapt it to the way political alliances operate. The above has resulted in the design of four new models. In order to test its validity and explanatory power in a preliminary manner, the second part looks at the organisational change of the UDC within the CiU alliance between 1978 and 2001. The discussion and conclusions reached demonstrate the problems of determinism of the Panebianco model and suggest, tentatively, the importance of the power balance within the alliance as a key factor.

Response of photosynthetic organisms to global change: an approach based on marker pigments

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Department of Freshwater Ecology, National Environmetal Research Institute, Denmark, from 2006 to 2008. The main objective of the project was to reconstruct photosynthetic organism community composition using pigmentbased methods and to study their response to natural (e.g. climate) or anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) perturbations that took place in the system over time. We performed a study in different locations and at different temporal scales. We analysed the pigment composition in a short sediment record (46 cm sediment depth) of a volcanic lake (Lake Furnas) in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal). The lake has been affected during the last century by successive fish introductions. The specific objective was to reconstruct the lake’s trophic state history and to assess the role of land-use, climate and fish introductions in structuring the lake community. Results obtained suggested that whereas trophic cascade and changes in nutrient concentrations have some clear effects on algal and microbial assemblages, interpreting the effects of changes in climate are not straightforward. This is probably related with the rather constant precipitation in the Azores Islands during the studied period. We also analysed the pigment composition in a long sediment record (1800 cm sediment depth) of Lake Aborre (Denmark) covering ca. 8kyr of lake history. The specific objective was to describe changes in lake primary production and lake trophic state over the Holocene and to determine the photosynthetic organisms involved. Results suggested that external forcing (i.e. land use changes) was responsible of erosion and nutrient run off to the lake that contributed to the reported changes in lake primary production along most of the Holocene.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Linkages of dietary patterns, international trade and land use: the case of olive oil in the European Union

Within only two decades olive oil developed from a niche product which could hardly be found in food stores outside the producing regions towards an integrated component in the diets of industrial countries. This paper discusses the impacts of the promotion of the “healthy Mediterranean diet” on land use and agro-ecosystems in the producing countries. It examines the dynamics of olive oil production, trade and consumption in the EU15 in the period 1972 to 2003 and the links between dietary patterns, trade and land use. It analyses the underlying socio-economic driving forces behind the increasing spatial disconnect between production and consumption of olive oil in the EU15 and in particular in Spain, the world largest producer during the last three decades. In the observed period olive oil consumption increased 16 fold in the non-producing EU15 countries. In the geographically limited producing regions like Spain, the 5 fold increase in export production was associated with the rapid industrialization of olive production, the conversion of vast Mediterranean landscapes to olive monocultures and a range of environmental pressures. High amounts of subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy and feedback loops within production and consumption systems were driving the transformation of the olive oil system. Our analysis indicates the process of change was not immediately driven by increases in demand for olive oil in non-producing countries, but rather by the institutional setting of the European Union and by concerted political interventions.

The Evolution of the Climate Change Regime: Beyond a North-South Divide?

This research primarily analyses relevant climate bargaining dynamics that have been informed by a North-South impasse. This working paper argues that the first stage of negotiations for a climate convention indeed witnessed a North-South divide which became institutionalized in the Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, in subsequent negotiation rounds the key loci of bargaining struggles was centered between developed countries, in which relevant North-South cooperation dynamics were also present. Finally, this paper assesses the unfinished post-Kyoto bargaining process in which two trends are already being observed: both the emergence of a new geopolitics between the United States and major developing countries, and a fragmentation process within the South, in which the Copenhagen Accord itself has begun to institutionalize such fragmentation.

How does monetary policy change? evidence on inflation targeting countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

Parents, television and cultural change

This paper develops a model of cultural transmission where television plays a central role for socialization. Parents split their free time between educating their children which is costly and watching TV which though entertaining might socialize the children to the wrong trait. The free to air television industry maximizes advertisement revenue. We show that TV watching is increasing in cultural coverage, cost of education, TV's entertainment value and decreasing in the perceived cultural distance between the two traits. A monopolistic television industry captures all TV watching by both groups if the perceived cultural distance between groups is small relative to the TV's entertainment value. Otherwise, more coverage will be given to the most profitable group where profitability increases in group size, advertisement sensitivity and perceived cultural distance. This leads to two possible steady states where one group is larger but both groups survive in the long run. Competition in the media industry might lead to cultural extinction but only if one group is very insensitive to advertisement and not radical enough not to watch TV. We briefly discuss the existing evidence for the empirical predictions of the model.

Contact melting of a three-dimensional phase change material on a flat substrate

In this paper a model is developed to describe the three dimensional contact melting process of a cuboid on a heated surface. The mathematical description involves two heat equations (one in the solid and one in the melt), the Navier-Stokes equations for the flow in the melt, a Stefan condition at the phase change interface and a force balance between the weight of the solid and the countering pressure in the melt. In the solid an optimised heat balance integral method is used to approximate the temperature. In the liquid the small aspect ratio allows the Navier-Stokes and heat equations to be simplified considerably so that the liquid pressure may be determined using an igenfunction expansion and finally the problem is reduced to solving three first order ordinary differential equations. Results are presented showing the evolution of the melting process. Further reductions to the system are made to provide simple guidelines concerning the process. Comparison of the solutions with experimental data on the melting of n-octadecane shows excellent agreement.

Mesophyll conductance to CO2 and leaf morphological characteristics under drought stress during Quercus ilex L resprouting

• Quercus ilex L., the dominant species in Mediterranean forests and one with a great capacity for resprouting after disturbances, is threatened by the expected increase in fire frequency and drought associated with climate change. • The aim of this study was to determine the contribution of photosynthesis limitants, especially mesophyll conductance (gmes ) during this species’ resprouting and under summer drought. • Resprouts showed 5.3-fold increased gmes and 3.8-fold increased stomatal conductance (gs) atmidday with respect to leaves of undisturbed individuals. With increased drought, structural changes (decreased density and increased thickness) in resprouts contributed to the observed higher photosynthesis and increased gmes. However, gmes only partially depended on leaf structure, and was also under physiological control. Resprouts also showed lower non-stomatal limitations (around 50% higher carboxylation velocity (Vc,max) and capacity for ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate regeneration (Jmax)). A significant contribution of gmes to leaf carbon isotope discrimination values was observed. • gmes exhibits a dominant role in photosynthesis limitation in Q. ilex and is regulated by factors other than morphology. During resprouting after disturbances, greater capacity to withstand drought, as evidenced by higher gmes , gs and lower non-stomatal limitants, enables increased photosynthesis and rapid growth.

RACE (Rapid Arterial oCclusion Evaluation): Diseño y validación prehospitalaria de una escala neurológica para la predicción de una oclusión arterial proximal en los pacientes con un ictus isquémico agudo de la circulación cerebral anterior

La Rapid Arterial oCclusion Evaluation és una escala neurològica prehospitalària que prediu la presència d’una oclusió arterial proximal (OAP) en els pacients amb un ictus isquèmic agut de la circulació cerebral anterior (IIACCA). Fou dissenyada valorant retrospectivament a 654 pacients amb un IIACCA, seleccionant la combinació dels ítems de la National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale que mostraven una major associació amb la presència d’una OAP: parèsia facial, parèsia braquial, parèsia crural, desviació oculocefàlica y agnòsia/afàsia. Fou validada valorant prospectivament a 93 activacions del Codi Ictus, mostrant una sensibilitat del 88% y una especificitat del 65% per una puntuació ≥ 4.

Gestió del coneixement aplicada a projectes informàtics

Avui dia el coneixement s'ha convertit en l'actiu més valuós de qualsevol organització, i la gestió d'aquest actiu, en una necessitat. La competitivitat de les empreses i, per tant, la seva supervivència depenen, en gran manera, del fet que aquest coneixement es pugui preservar i emprar eficientment. Quantes vegades hem perdut el temps innecessàriament cercant documents que nosaltres mateixos hem guardat en algun lloc i que no sabem trobar, o hem desaprofitat la informació d'altres perquè no sabem que existeix, o hem hagut de demanar informació a altres persones perquè nosaltres no la tenim a la nostra disposició o no sabem com trobar-la. Tot això i molt més pot quedar resolt amb una bona gestió del coneixement. Si haguéssim de definir què és la gestió del coneixement, podríem dir que és tot el conjunt d'activitats que tenen com a finalitat fer servir, compartir i desenvolupar els coneixements d'una organització i de les persones que hi treballen per a aconseguir una millora en els seus objectius, ser més precisos en la presa de decisions i poder donar una resposta més ràpida a les necessitats del mercat. Però implantar la gestió del coneixement en una empresa no és una tasca fàcil ni immediata. A banda de comportar un canvi organitzatiu important, cal que hi hagi un suport tecnològic, cosa que implica definir uns processos, abans inexistents i que ara han de ser aplicats i veure com s'integra en el funcionament de l'activitat diària de l'empresa, en aquest cas, el desenvolupament de projectes informàtics.