In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Elements of algebraic geometry and the positive theory of partially commutative groups

The first main result of the paper is a criterion for a partially commutative group G to be a domain. It allows us to reduce the study of algebraic sets over G to the study of irreducible algebraic sets, and reduce the elementary theory of G (of a coordinate group over G) to the elementary theories of the direct factors of G (to the elementary theory of coordinate groups of irreducible algebraic sets). Then we establish normal forms for quantifier-free formulas over a non-abelian directly indecomposable partially commutative group H. Analogously to the case of free groups, we introduce the notion of a generalised equation and prove that the positive theory of H has quantifier elimination and that arbitrary first-order formulas lift from H to H * F, where F is a free group of finite rank. As a consequence, the positive theory of an arbitrary partially commutative group is decidable.

Rational first integrals in the Darboux theory of integrability in Cn

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

The new role of the mass media in the construction of sport and Olympic values

This paper was presented in the International Symposium on Toward the Creation of New-Sport Cultures, undertaken in Osaka, Japan, in January 28, 1996. The main purpose is to make an interpretation of the cultural values of sport and Olympism in contemporary society, considering the enormous influence that the media have on them.

New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

On the homotopy theory of spectral categories

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

The New Institutions of Transatlantic Aviation

This article focuses on the institutions of transatlantic aviation since 1945, and aims at extracting from this historical process topical policy implications. Using the methodology of an analytic narrative, we describe and explain the creation of the international cartel institutions in the 1940s, their operation throughout the 1950s and 60s, their increasing vulnerability in the 1970s, and then the progressive liberalization of the whole system. Our analytic narrative has a natural end, marked by the signing of an Open Skies Agreement between the US and the EU in 2007. We place particular explanatory power on (a) the progressive liberalization of the US domestic market, and (b) the active role of the European Commission in Europe. More specifically, we explain these developments using two frameworks. First, a “political limit pricing” model, which seemed promising, then failed, and then seemed promising again because it failed. Second, a strategic bargaining model inspired by Susanne Schmidt’s analysis of how the European Commission uses the threat of infringement proceedings to force member governments into line and obtain the sole negotiating power in transatlantic aviation.

New developments of peace research: The impact of recent campaigns on disarmament and human security

The present text, based on previous work done by the authors on peace research (Grasa 1990 and 2010) and the disarmament campaigns linked to Human Security (Alcalde 2009 and 2010), has two objectives. First, to present a new agenda for peace research, based on the resolution/transformation of conflicts and the promotion of collective action in furtherance of human security and human development. Second, to focus specifically on collective action and on a positive reading of some of the campaigns that have taken place during the last decades in order to see how the experiences of such will affect the future agenda for peace research and action for peace.

New Features of CoDaPack. An Userfriendly Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data is commonly used in geological studies.As is well-known, compositions should be treated using logratios of parts, which aredifficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. In this paper we describe thenew features of our freeware package, named CoDaPack, which implements most of thebasic statistical methods suitable for compositional data. An example using real data ispresented to illustrate the use of the package

CODAPACK3D. A new version of Compositional Data Package

The statistical analysis of compositional data should be treated using logratios of parts,which are difficult to use correctly in standard statistical packages. For this reason afreeware package, named CoDaPack was created. This software implements most of thebasic statistical methods suitable for compositional data.In this paper we describe the new version of the package that now is calledCoDaPack3D. It is developed in Visual Basic for applications (associated with Excel©),Visual Basic and Open GL, and it is oriented towards users with a minimum knowledgeof computers with the aim at being simple and easy to use.This new version includes new graphical output in 2D and 3D. These outputs could bezoomed and, in 3D, rotated. Also a customization menu is included and outputs couldbe saved in jpeg format. Also this new version includes an interactive help and alldialog windows have been improved in order to facilitate its use.To use CoDaPack one has to access Excel© and introduce the data in a standardspreadsheet. These should be organized as a matrix where Excel© rows correspond tothe observations and columns to the parts. The user executes macros that returnnumerical or graphical results. There are two kinds of numerical results: new variablesand descriptive statistics, and both appear on the same sheet. Graphical output appearsin independent windows. In the present version there are 8 menus, with a total of 38submenus which, after some dialogue, directly call the corresponding macro. Thedialogues ask the user to input variables and further parameters needed, as well aswhere to put these results. The web site http://ima.udg.es/CoDaPack contains thisfreeware package and only Microsoft Excel© under Microsoft Windows© is required torun the software.Kew words: Compositional data Analysis, Software

Luck and the control theory of knowledge

The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

Time-Delayed Theory of the Neolithic Transition in Europe

The classical wave-of-advance model of the neolithic transition (i.e., the shift from hunter-gatherer to agricultural economies) is based on Fisher's reaction-diffusion equation. Here we present an extension of Einstein's approach to Fickian diffusion, incorporating reaction terms. On this basis we show that second-order terms in the reaction-diffusion equation, which have been neglected up to now, are not in fact negligible but can lead to important corrections. The resulting time-delayed model agrees quite well with observations

Nanomotors: new strategies of (bio)sensing based on motion

Nanomotors are nanoscale devices capable of converting energy into movement and forces. Among them, self-propelled nanomotors offer considerable promise for developing new and novel bioanalytical and biosensing strategies based on the direct isolation of target biomolecules or changes in their movement in the presence of target analytes. The mainachievements of this project consists on the development of receptor-functionalized nanomotors that offer direct and rapid target detection, isolation and transport from raw biological samples without preparatory and washing steps. For example, microtube engines functionalized with aptamer, antibody, lectin and enzymes receptors were used for the direct isolation of analytes of biomedical interest, including proteins and whole cells, among others. A target protein was also isolated from a complex sample by using an antigen-functionalized microengine navigating into the reservoirs of a lab-on-a-chip device. The new nanomotorbased target biomarkers detection strategy not only offers highly sensitive, rapid, simple and low cost alternative for the isolation and transport of target molecules, but also represents a new dimension of analytical information based on motion. The recognition events can be easily visualized by optical microscope (without any sophisticated analytical instrument) to reveal the target presence and concentration. The use of artificial nanomachines has shown not only to be useful for (bio)recognition and (bio)transport but also for detection of environmental contamination and remediation. In this context, micromotors modified with superhydrophobic layer demonstrated that effectively interacted, captured, transported and removed oil droplets from oil contaminated samples. Finally, a unique micromotor-based strategy for water-quality testing, that mimics live-fish water-quality testing, based on changes in the propulsion behavior of artificial biocatalytic microswimmers in the presence of aquatic pollutants was also developed. The attractive features of the new micromachine-based target isolation and signal transduction protocols developed in this project offer numerous potential applications in biomedical diagnostics, environmental monitoring, and forensic analysis.