Interlinkages and forecasting made possible by the use of the DECOIN analytical tool kit

This technical report is a document prepared as a deliverable [D4.3 Report of the Interlinkages and forecasting prototype tool] of a EU project – DECOIN Project No. 044428 - FP6-2005-SSP-5A. The text is divided into 4 sections: (1) this short introductory section explains the purpose of the report; (2) the second section provides a general discussion of a systemic problem found in existing quantitative analysis of sustainability. It addresses the epistemological implications of complexity, which entails the need of dealing with the existence of Multiple-Scales and non-equivalent narratives (multiple dimensions/attributes) to be used to define sustainability issues. There is an unavoidable tension between a “steady-state view” (= the perception of what is going on now – reflecting a PAST --& PRESENT view of the reality) versus an “evolutionary view” (= the unknown transformation that we have to expect in the process of becoming of the observed reality and in the observer – reflecting a PRESENT --& FUTURE view of the reality). The section ends by listing the implications of these points on the choice of integrated packages of sustainability indicators; (3) the third section illustrates the potentiality of the DECOIN toolkit for the study of sustainability trade-offs and linkages across indicators using quantitative examples taken from cases study of another EU project (SMILE). In particular, this section starts by addressing the existence of internal constraints to sustainability (economic versus social aspects). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of ageing and immigration on the economic viability of social systems. Then the section continues by exploring external constraints to sustainability (economic development vs the environment). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of current strategy of economic development based on externalization and the “bubbles-disease”; (4) the last section presents a critical appraisal of the quality of energy data found in energy statistics. It starts with a discussion of the general goal of statistical accounting. Then it introduces the concept of multipurpose grammars. The second part uses the experience made in the activities of the DECOIN project to answer the question: how useful are EUROSTAT energy statistics? The answer starts with an analysis of basic epistemological problems associated with accounting of energy. This discussion leads to the acknowledgment of an important epistemological problem: the unavoidable bifurcations in the mechanism of accounting needed to generate energy statistics. By using numerical example the text deals with the following issues: (i) the pitfalls of the actual system of accounting in energy statistics; (ii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in BP statistics; (iii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in Eurostat statistics. The section ends by proposing an innovative method to represent energy statistics which can result more useful for those willing develop sustainability indicators.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

Supporting the reuse of effective CSCL learning designs through social structure representations

Distance and blended collaborative learning settings are usually characterized by different social structures defined in terms of groups' number, dimension, and composition; these structures are variable and can change within the same activity. This variability poses additional complexity to instructional designers, when they are trying to develop successful experiences from existing designs. This complexity is greatly associated with the fact that learning designs do not render explicit how social structures influenced the decisions of the original designer, and thus whether the social structures of the new setting could preclude the effectiveness of the reused design. This article proposes the usage of new representations (social structure representations, SSRs) able to support unskilled designers in reusing existing learning designs, through the explicit characterization of the social structures and constraints embedded either by the original designers or the reusing teachers, according to well-known principles of good collaborative learning practice. The article also describes an evaluation process that involved university professors, as well as the main findings derived from it. This process supported the initial assumptions about the effectiveness of SSRs, with significant evidence from both qualitative and qualitative data.

Urban mobilities: the anglo-catalan production of the Barcelona model

The aim of the project was to gauge the extent to which the so-called ‘Barcelona Model’ of urban transformation has been ‘exported’ to Britain and whether Barcelona has learned from British cities. We engage with the literature on successive British governments’ strategies for cities, focused on collecting data on contemporary policy initiatives and debates in the UK, did interviews in Manchester, London Barcelona and participated in the official visit of Leeds to Barcelona in March. Our research findings to date suggest that there is a good deal of mobility and interaction between Barcelona and the UK. However, it is by no means certain that this has resulted in definite instances of policy transfer. While the ‘Barcelona model’ has indeed featured in oficial discourse on urban regeneration in the UK, it does not appear to be the preferred best practice ‘model’ – other North American and European cities figure discursively as much, if not more. Where Barcelona does feature in official discourse, it is usually as an example of good design and an appealing urban aesthetic, rather than in terms of economic or social policy best practice. Our research suggests that the Barcelona model is seen as non-transferable to the UK due to the relatively more centralised governance structure therein.In contrast, evidence collected suggests that the Barcelona model is not influenced by UK British cities experiences but there is small evidence of being influenced by UK-based professionals.

New opportunities for farm accounting

There is a gap between the importance given to accounting and the low level of bookkeeping and accounting practice in the agricultural sector. Current general accounting rules do not adapt very well to the particularities of farming and are difficult and expensive to implement. The Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) and IASC's Proposed International Accounting Standard on Agriculture (PIASA) could be key elements to improve the use of accounting in European farms. The PIASA provides a strong conceptual framework but might need further instruments for its implementation in practice. FADN is an experienced network that has elaborated very detailed farm accounting procedures. Empirical data indicate that current FADN reports are already considered useful by farmers for different purposes. Some changes in the FADN procedures are suggested, while some aspects of FADN are worthwhile for the future IAS on agriculture.

Protestants and Catholics: Similar work ethic, different social ethic

This article develops two hypotheses about economically-relevant values of Christianbelievers, according to which Protestants should work more and more effectively, as in the work ethic argument of Max Weber, or display a stronger social ethic that would lead themto monitor each other s conduct, support political and legal institutions and hold morehomogeneous values. Tests using current survey data confirm substantial partial correlations andpossible different effects in mutual social control, institutional performance and homogeneityof values but no difference in work ethics. Protestantism therefore seems conducive to capitalisteconomic development, not by the direct psychological route of the Weberian work ethic butrather by promoting an alternative social ethic that facilitates impersonal trade.

Dynamic adverse selection and debt

This paper argues that the strategic use of debt favours the revelationof information in dynamic adverse selection problems. Our argument is basedon the idea that debt is a credible commitment to end long term relationships.Consequently, debt encourages a privately informed party to disclose itsinformation at early stages of a relationship. We illustrate our pointwith the financing decision of a monopolist selling a good to a buyerwhose valuation is private information. A high level of (renegotiable)debt, by increasing the scope for liquidation, may induce the highvaluation buyer to buy early at a high price and thus increase themonopolist's expected payoff. By affecting the buyer's strategy, it mayreduce the probability of excessive liquidation. We investigate theconsequences of good durability and we examine the way debt mayalleviate the ratchet effect.

Variations in national management accounting approaches

During the 1990's studies of management accounting practices in Europe and in Latin America have given us data on 23 countries. In this paper we use this data to identify five distinct aspects of national management accounting culture being:1. The influence of regulations on official recommendations;2. The source of management accountants;3. Influence from one country to another;4. Variations in use of specific techniques;5. Variations in the objectives of the management accounting system.We then identify seven significant implications of the manager operating in the multinational environment.

Ethics and creative accounting: Some empirical evidence on accounting for intangibles in Spain

Recent research shows that financial reports are losing relevance. Mainly thisis due to the growing strategic importance of intangible assets in theperformance of a company. A possible solution is to modify accounting standardsso that statements include more self-generated intangible assets, taking intoaccount with their inherent risk and difficulty of valuation. We surveyed loanofficers who were asked to assess the credit-worthiness of a hypotheticalcompany. The only information given was a simplified version of financialstatements. Half the group got statements where research and development costshad been capitalized. The other half got statements in which these costs hadbeen treated as an expense. The findings show that capitalization wassignificantly more likely to attract a positive response to a loan request. Thepaper raises the question of whether accounting for intangibles might providemanagers with one more creative accounting technique and, in consequence, itsethical implications.

Environmental factors giving rise to variations in national management accounting practice

Comparative national management accounting is the least developed aspect in the field of international accounting. Only during the second half of the 1990's some comparisons of national managementaccounting practice have appeared published but only at theregional level. In this paper a range of factors that give rise to variations in national management accounting practice are postulated. We support this list with examples from a range of analyses of national management accounting practices, drawing particularly on the work of Lizcano (1996) and Bhimani (1996).Finally, twelve key factors are identified as influencing an individual country's approach to management accounting.

Sweet diversity: Colonial goods and the rise of European living standards after 1492

When did overseas trade start to matter for living standards? Traditional real-wage indices suggest that living standards in Europe stagnated before 1800. In this paper, we argue thatwelfare rose substantially, but surreptitiously, because of an influx of new goods as a result ofoverseas trade. Colonial luxuries such as tea, coffee, and sugar transformed European diets afterthe discovery of America and the rounding of the Cape of Good Hope. These goods became household items in many countries by the end of the 18th century. We use three different methodsto calculate welfare gains based on price data and the rate of adoption of these new colonialgoods. Our results suggest that by 1800, the average Englishman would have been willing to forego 10% or more of his income in order to maintain access to sugar and tea alone. These findings are robust to a wide range of alternative assumptions, data series, and valuation methods.

Creative accounting: Nature, incidence and ethical issues

This paper explores the nature and incidence of creative accounting practiceswithin the context of ethical considerations.It explores several definitionsof creative accounting and the potential and the range of reasons for acompany's directors to engage in creative accounting. Later the paperconsiders the various ways in which creative accounting can be undertaken andsummarizes some empirical research on the nature and incidence of creativeaccounting. The ethical dimension of creative accounting is discussed, drawingevidence from several empirical studies. The paper concludes with the analysisof possible solutions for the creative accounting problem.

Patients' right to information: a review of the regulatory and ethical framework

[eng] Aim: The paper examines the current situation of recognition of patients' right to information in international standards and in the national laws of Belgium, France, Italy, Spain (and Catalonia), Switzerland and the United Kingdom.Methodology: International standards, laws and codes of ethics of physicians and librarians that are currently in force were identified and analyzed with regard to patients' right to information and the ownership of this right. The related subjects of access to clinical history, advance directives and informed consent were not taken into account.Results: All the standards, laws and codes analyzed deal with guaranteeing access to information. The codes of ethics of both physicians and librarians establish the duty to inform.Conclusions: Librarians must collaborate with physicians in the process of informing patients.

Effects of nitrogen supply on wheat and on soil nitrate

Field experiments were conducted at two locations during two growing seasons in the Ebro Valley (Spain), to evaluate the effects of N fertilization on yield and quality of Mediterranean-type wheat in irrigated conditions. Seven N treatments and a control were investigated. The average grain yields ranged from 2117 to 5551 kg ha-1 depending on the year and location. Grain protein ranged from 14.25 to 16.9%, and other quality parameters such as the dough strength (W) also varied with year and location, confirming the suitability of Mediterranean-type wheat and the climate for the production of good bread-making quality wheat. However, grain yields are normally low and both yields and quality can be greatly affected by the variability of this type of climate, even under irrigation. Under these conditions, grain yield increases were mainly due to an increase in the number of grains per m2 without a reduction in the N content per spike, suggesting that N in the grain was not source-limited, possibly due to the lower grain yields and relatively high soil nitrate concentrations. In soils with lower initial soil NO-3N contents, better grain yields could be achieved by applying a N fertilizer rate of about 100 kg N ha-1, whereas in soils with high initial NO-3N contents, no N or a maximum rate of 50 kg N ha-1 is needed to obtain a good grain quality, showing the possibility of producing high-quality wheat with a low amount of N fertilizer and thus increasing the sustainability of the cropping system.

Protein oligomers studied by solid-state NMR the case of the full-length nucleoid-associated protein histone-like nucleoid structuring protein

Members of the histone-like nucleoid structuring protein (H-NS) family play roles both as architectural proteins and as modulators of gene expression in Gram-negative bacteria. The H-NS protein participates in modulatory processes that respond to environmental changes in osmolarity, pH, or temperature. H-NS oligomerization is essential for its activity. Structural models of different truncated forms are available. However, high-resolution structural details of full-length H-NS and its DNA-bound state have largely remained elusive. We report on progress in characterizing the biologically active H-NS oligomers with solid-state NMR. We compared uniformly ((13)C,(15)N)-labeled ssNMR preparations of the isolated N-terminal region (H-NS 1-47) and full-length H-NS (H-NS 1-137). In both cases, we obtained ssNMR spectra of good quality and characteristic of well-folded proteins. Analysis of the results of 2D and 3D (13)C-(13)C and (15)N-(13)C correlation experiments conducted at high magnetic field led to assignments of residues located in different topological regions of the free full-length H-NS. These findings confirm that the structure of the N-terminal dimerization domain is conserved in the oligomeric full-length protein. Small changes in the dimerization interface suggested by localized chemical shift variations between solution and solid-state spectra may be relevant for DNA recoginition.