Rational reasoning or adaptive behavior? Evidence from two-person beauty contest games

Many experiments have shown that human subjects do not necessarily behave in line with game theoretic assumptions and solution concepts. The reasons for this non-conformity are multiple. In this paper we study the argument whether a deviation from game theory is because subjects are rational, but doubt that others are rational as well, compared to the argument that subjects, in general, are boundedly rational themselves. To distinguish these two hypotheses, we study behavior in repeated 2-person and many-person Beauty-Contest-Games which are strategically different from one another. We analyze four different treatments and observe that convergence toward equilibrium is driven by learning through the information about the other player s choice and adaptation rather than self-initiated rational reasoning.

Adaptive model selection using empirical complexities

Given $n$ independent replicates of a jointly distributed pair $(X,Y)\in {\cal R}^d \times {\cal R}$, we wish to select from a fixed sequence of model classes ${\cal F}_1, {\cal F}_2, \ldots$ a deterministic prediction rule $f: {\cal R}^d \to {\cal R}$ whose risk is small. We investigate the possibility of empirically assessingthe {\em complexity} of each model class, that is, the actual difficulty of the estimation problem within each class. The estimated complexities are in turn used to define an adaptive model selection procedure, which is based on complexity penalized empirical risk.The available data are divided into two parts. The first is used to form an empirical cover of each model class, and the second is used to select a candidate rule from each cover based on empirical risk. The covering radii are determined empirically to optimize a tight upper bound on the estimation error. An estimate is chosen from the list of candidates in order to minimize the sum of class complexity and empirical risk. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the complexity of each model class is assessed empirically, based on the size of its empirical cover.Finite sample performance bounds are established for the estimates, and these bounds are applied to several non-parametric estimation problems. The estimates are shown to achieve a favorable tradeoff between approximation and estimation error, and to perform as well as if the distribution-dependent complexities of the model classes were known beforehand. In addition, it is shown that the estimate can be consistent,and even possess near optimal rates of convergence, when each model class has an infinite VC or pseudo dimension.For regression estimation with squared loss we modify our estimate to achieve a faster rate of convergence.

Adaptive dynamics and the implementation problem with complete information

This paper studies the equilibrating process of several implementationmechanisms using naive adaptive dynamics. We show that the dynamics convergeand are stable, for the canonical mechanism of implementation in Nash equilibrium.In this way we cast some doubt on the criticism of ``complexity'' commonlyused against this mechanism. For mechanisms that use more refined equilibrium concepts,the dynamics converge but are not stable. Some papers in the literatureon implementation with refined equilibrium concepts have claimed that themechanisms they propose are ``simple'' and implement ``everything'' (incontrast with the canonical mechanism). The fact that some of these ``simple''mechanisms have unstable equilibria suggests that these statements shouldbe interpreted with some caution.

Multiresolution-based image fusion with additive wavelet decomposition

The standard data fusion methods may not be satisfactory to merge a high-resolution panchromatic image and a low-resolution multispectral image because they can distort the spectral characteristics of the multispectral data. The authors developed a technique, based on multiresolution wavelet decomposition, for the merging and data fusion of such images. The method presented consists of adding the wavelet coefficients of the high-resolution image to the multispectral (low-resolution) data. They have studied several possibilities concluding that the method which produces the best results consists in adding the high order coefficients of the wavelet transform of the panchromatic image to the intensity component (defined as L=(R+G+B)/3) of the multispectral image. The method is, thus, an improvement on standard intensity-hue-saturation (IHS or LHS) mergers. They used the ¿a trous¿ algorithm which allows the use of a dyadic wavelet to merge nondyadic data in a simple and efficient scheme. They used the method to merge SPOT and LANDSATTM images. The technique presented is clearly better than the IHS and LHS mergers in preserving both spectral and spatial information.

Introduction of sensor spectral response into image fusion methods. Application to wavelet-based methods

Usual image fusion methods inject features from a high spatial resolution panchromatic sensor into every low spatial resolution multispectral band trying to preserve spectral signatures and improve spatial resolution to that of the panchromatic sensor. The objective is to obtain the image that would be observed by a sensor with the same spectral response (i.e., spectral sensitivity and quantum efficiency) as the multispectral sensors and the spatial resolution of the panchromatic sensor. But in these methods, features from electromagnetic spectrum regions not covered by multispectral sensors are injected into them, and physical spectral responses of the sensors are not considered during this process. This produces some undesirable effects, such as resolution overinjection images and slightly modified spectral signatures in some features. The authors present a technique which takes into account the physical electromagnetic spectrum responses of sensors during the fusion process, which produces images closer to the image obtained by the ideal sensor than those obtained by usual wavelet-based image fusion methods. This technique is used to define a new wavelet-based image fusion method.

Gas identification with tin oxide sensor array and self-organizing maps: adaptive correction of sensor drifts

Low-cost tin oxide gas sensors are inherently nonspecific. In addition, they have several undesirable characteristics such as slow response, nonlinearities, and long-term drifts. This paper shows that the combination of a gas-sensor array together with self-organizing maps (SOM's) permit success in gas classification problems. The system is able to determine the gas present in an atmosphere with error rates lower than 3%. Correction of the sensor's drift with an adaptive SOM has also been investigated

Does the sun shine by p p or CNO fusion reactions?

We show that solar neutrino experiments set an upper limit of 7.8% (7.3% including the recent KamLAND measurements) to the fraction of energy that the Sun produces via the CNO fusion cycle, which is an order of magnitude improvement upon the previous limit. New experiments are required to detect CNO neutrinos corresponding to the 1.5% of the solar luminosity that the standard solar model predicts is generated by the CNO cycle.

Comment on: Deuterium nuclear fusion at room temperature: A pertinent inequality on barrier penetration

In a recent letter, Rosen claims to justify ...

Mobile robot experimental modeling and control strategies using sensor fusion

This research work deals with the problem of modeling and design of low level speed controller for the mobile robot PRIM. The main objective is to develop an effective educational, and research tool. On one hand, the interests in using the open mobile platform PRIM consist in integrating several highly related subjects to the automatic control theory in an educational context, by embracing the subjects of communications, signal processing, sensor fusion and hardware design, amongst others. On the other hand, the idea is to implement useful navigation strategies such that the robot can be served as a mobile multimedia information point. It is in this context, when navigation strategies are oriented to goal achievement, that a local model predictive control is attained. Hence, such studies are presented as a very interesting control strategy in order to develop the future capabilities of the system. In this context the research developed includes the visual information as a meaningful source that allows detecting the obstacle position coordinates as well as planning the free obstacle trajectory that should be reached by the robot

Maximum likelihood Linear Programming Data Fusion for Speaker Recognition

Biometric system performance can be improved by means of data fusion. Several kinds of information can be fused in order to obtain a more accurate classification (identification or verification) of an input sample. In this paper we present a method for computing the weights in a weighted sum fusion for score combinations, by means of a likelihood model. The maximum likelihood estimation is set as a linear programming problem. The scores are derived from a GMM classifier working on a different feature extractor. Our experimental results assesed the robustness of the system in front a changes on time (different sessions) and robustness in front a change of microphone. The improvements obtained were significantly better (error bars of two standard deviations) than a uniform weighted sum or a uniform weighted product or the best single classifier. The proposed method scales computationaly with the number of scores to be fussioned as the simplex method for linear programming.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Mitochondrial fusion is increased by the nuclear coactivator PGC-1beta

Background There is no evidence to date on whether transcriptional regulators are able to shift the balance between mitochondrial fusion and fission events through selective control of gene expression. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we demonstrate that reduced mitochondrial size observed in knock-out mice for the transcriptional regulator PGC-1β is associated with a selective reduction in Mitofusin 2 (Mfn2) expression, a mitochondrial fusion protein. This decrease in Mfn2 is specific since expression of the remaining components of mitochondrial fusion and fission machinery were not affected. Furthermore, PGC-1β increases mitochondrial fusion and elongates mitochondrial tubules. This PGC-1β-induced elongation specifically requires Mfn2 as this process is absent in Mfn2-ablated cells. Finally, we show that PGC-1β increases Mfn2 promoter activity and transcription by coactivating the nuclear receptor Estrogen Related Receptor α (ERRα). Conclusions/Significance Taken together, our data reveal a novel mechanism by which mammalian cells control mitochondrial fusion. In addition, we describe a novel role of PGC-1β in mitochondrial physiology, namely the control of mitochondrial fusion mainly through Mfn2.

Fusion of the extended modified liquid drop model for nucleation and dynamical nucleation theory

We present a new phenomenological approach to nucleation, based on the combination of the extended modified liquid drop model and dynamical nucleation theory. The new model proposes a new cluster definition, which properly includes the effect of fluctuations, and it is consistent both thermodynamically and kinetically. The model is able to predict successfully the free energy of formation of the critical nucleus, using only macroscopic thermodynamic properties. It also accounts for the spinodal and provides excellent agreement with the result of recent simulations.