The Role of supply constraints in multiplier analysis

Multiplier analysis based upon the information contained in Leontief's inverse is undoubtedly part of the core of the input-output methodology and numerous applications an extensions have been developed that exploit its informational content. Nonetheless there are some implicit theoretical assumptions whose implications have perhaps not been fully assessed. This is the case of the 'excess capacity' assumption. Because of this assumption resources are available as needed to adjust production to new equilibrium states. In real world applications, however, new resources are scarce and costly. Supply constraints kick in and hence resource allocation needs to take them into account to really assess the effect of government policies. Using a closed general equilibrium model that incorporates supply constraints, we perform some simple numerical exercises and proceed to derive a 'constrained' multiplier matrix that can be compared with the standard 'unrestricted' multiplier matrix. Results show that the effectiveness of expenditure policies hinges critically on whether or not supply constraints are considered.

Going beyond energy intensity to understand the energy metabolism of nations: the case of Argentina

The link between energy consumption and economic growth has been widely studied in the economic literature. Understanding this relationship is important from both an environmental and a socio-economic point of view, as energy consumption is crucial to economic activity and human environmental impact. This relevance is even higher for developing countries, since energy consumption per unit of output varies through the phases of development, increasing from an agricultural stage to an industrial one and then decreasing for certain service based economies. In the Argentinean case, the relevance of energy consumption to economic development seems to be particularly important. While energy intensity seems to exhibit a U-Shaped curve from 1990 to 2003 decreasing slightly after that year, total energy consumption increases along the period of analysis. Why does this happen? How can we relate this result with the sustainability debate? All these questions are very important due to Argentinean hydrocarbons dependence and due to the recent reduction in oil and natural gas reserves, which can lead to a lack of security of supply. In this paper we study Argentinean energy consumption pattern for the period 1990-2007, to discuss current and future energy and economic sustainability. To this purpose, we developed a conventional analysis, studying energy intensity, and a non conventional analysis, using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) accounting methodology. Both methodologies show that the development process followed by Argentina has not been good enough to assure sustainability in the long term. Instead of improving energy use, energy intensity has increased. The current composition of its energy mix, and the recent economic crisis in Argentina, as well as its development path, are some of the possible explanations.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Simulating the Impact of Sectorial Productivity Gains on Two Regional Economies: Key Sectors from a Supply Side Perspective

In this paper we simulate and analyse the economic impact that sectorial productivity gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular we study the quantitative effect that each sector’s productivity gain has on household welfare (real disposable income and equivalent variation), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government’s net income (net taxation revenues of social transfers to households). The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which we assume perfect competition and cleared markets, including factor markets. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow us to identify those sectors with the greatest impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: Productivity gains, key sectors, computable general equilibrium

Uranium reserve, nuclear fuel cycle delusion, CO2 emission from the sea, and electricity supply: reflections after the fuel meltdown of Fukushima nuclear power units

The Great Tohoku-Kanto earthquake and resulting tsunami has brought considerable attention to the issue of the construction of new power plants. We argue in this paper, nuclear power is not a sustainable solution to energy problems. First, we explore the stock of uranium-235 and the different schemes developed by the nuclear power industry to exploit this resource. Second, we show that these methods, fast breeder and MOX fuel reactors, are not feasible. Third, we show that the argument that nuclear energy can be used to reduce CO2 emissions is false: the emissions from the increased water evaporation from nuclear power generation must be accounted for. In the case of Japan, water from nuclear power plants is drained into the surrounding sea, raising the water temperature which has an adverse affect on the immediate ecosystem, as well as increasing CO2 emissions from increased water evaporation from the sea. Next, a short exercise is used to show that nuclear power is not even needed to meet consumer demand in Japan. Such an exercise should be performed for any country considering the construction of additional nuclear power plants. Lastly, the paper is concluded with a discussion of the implications of our findings.

Teleost fish larvae adapt to dietary arachidonic acid supply through modulation of the expression of lipid metabolism and stress response genes

Dietary fatty acid supply can affect stress response in fish during early development. Although knowledge on the mechanisms involved in fatty acid regulation of stress tolerance is scarce, it has often been hypothesised that eicosanoid profiles can influence cortisol production. Genomic cortisol actions are mediated by cytosolic receptors which may respond to cellular fatty acid signalling. An experiment was designed to test the effects of feeding gilthead sea-bream larvae with four microdiets, containing graded arachidonic acid (ARA) levels (0·4, 0·8, 1·5 and 3·0 %), on the expression of genes involved in stress response (steroidogenic acute regulatory protein, glucocorticoid receptor and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase), lipid and, particularly, eicosanoid metabolism (hormone-sensitive lipase, PPARα, phospholipase A2, cyclo-oxygenase-2 and 5-lipoxygenase), as determined by real-time quantitative PCR. Fish fatty acid phenotypes reflected dietary fatty acid profiles. Growth performance, survival after acute stress and similar whole-body basal cortisol levels suggested that sea-bream larvae could tolerate a wide range of dietary ARA levels. Transcription of all genes analysed was significantly reduced at dietary ARA levels above 0·4 %. Nonetheless, despite practical suppression of phospholipase A2 transcription, higher leukotriene B4 levels were detected in larvae fed 3·0 % ARA, whereas a similar trend was observed regarding PGE2 production. The present study demonstrates that adaptation to a wide range of dietary ARA levels in gilthead sea-bream larvae involves the modulation of the expression of genes related to eicosanoid synthesis, lipid metabolism and stress response. The roles of ARA, other polyunsaturates and eicosanoids as signals in this process are discussed.

Biophysical requirements of power-supply systems: nuclear energy and fossil energy

The report presents a grammar capable of analyzing the process of production of electricity in modular elements for different power-supply systems, defined using semantic and formal categories. In this way it becomes possible to individuate similarities and differences in the process of production of electricity, and then measure and compare “apples” with “apples” and “oranges” with “oranges”. For instance, when comparing the various unit operations of the process of production of electricity with nuclear energy to the analogous unit operations of the process of production of fossil energy, we see that the various phases of the process are the same. The only difference is related to characteristics of the process associated with the generation of heat which are completely different in the two systems. As a matter of facts, the performance of the production of electricity from nuclear energy can be studied, by comparing the biophysical costs associated with the different unit operations taking place in nuclear and fossil power plants when generating process heat or net electricity. By adopting this approach, it becomes possible to compare the performance of the two power-supply systems by comparing their relative biophysical requirements for the phases that both nuclear energy power plants and fossil energy power plants have in common: (i) mining; (ii) refining/enriching; (iii) generating heat/electricity; (iv) handling the pollution/radioactive wastes. This report presents the evaluation of the biophysical requirements for the two powersupply systems: nuclear energy and fossil energy. In particular, the report focuses on the following requirements: (i) electricity; (ii) fossil-fuels, (iii) labor; and (iv) materials.

Reduction in catheter-related bloodstream infections in critically ill patients through a multiple system intervention.

Els catéters venosos centrals són necessaris per al maneig del pacient crític però poden ser l´origen d´una bacteriemia. Aquest estudi prospectiu de cohort té com a objectiu determinar la utilitat de l´aplicació d´unes mesures bàsiques de prevenció per disminuir la incidència de bacteriemia associada a catéter. Els resultats de l´estudi confirmen que l´aplicació d´aquest sistema d´intervenció múltiple basat en l´evidencia redueix de forma significativa les bacteriemies associades a catéter a la nostra UCI.

Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality

The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.

Reduction theorems for operators on the cones of monotone functions

For a quasilinear operator on the semiaxis a reduction theorem is proved on the cones of monotone functions in Lp - Lq setting for 0 < q < ∞, 1<= p < ∞. The case 0 < p < 1 is also studied for operators with additional properties. In particular, we obtain critera for three-weight inequalities for the Hardy-type operators with Oinarov' kernel on monotone functions in the case 0 < q < p <= 1.

Comparing methods for dimensionality reduction when data are density functions

Functional Data Analysis (FDA) deals with samples where a whole function is observedfor each individual. A particular case of FDA is when the observed functions are densityfunctions, that are also an example of infinite dimensional compositional data. In thiswork we compare several methods for dimensionality reduction for this particular typeof data: functional principal components analysis (PCA) with or without a previousdata transformation and multidimensional scaling (MDS) for diferent inter-densitiesdistances, one of them taking into account the compositional nature of density functions. The difeerent methods are applied to both artificial and real data (householdsincome distributions)

Thermodynamics and log–contrast analysis in fluid geochemistry

There are two principal chemical concepts that are important for studying the naturalenvironment. The first one is thermodynamics, which describes whether a system is atequilibrium or can spontaneously change by chemical reactions. The second main conceptis how fast chemical reactions (kinetics or rate of chemical change) take place wheneverthey start. In this work we examine a natural system in which both thermodynamics andkinetic factors are important in determining the abundance of NH+4 , NO−2 and NO−3 insuperficial waters. Samples were collected in the Arno Basin (Tuscany, Italy), a system inwhich natural and antrophic effects both contribute to highly modify the chemical compositionof water. Thermodynamical modelling based on the reduction-oxidation reactionsinvolving the passage NH+4 -& NO−2 -& NO−3 in equilibrium conditions has allowed todetermine the Eh redox potential values able to characterise the state of each sample and,consequently, of the fluid environment from which it was drawn. Just as pH expressesthe concentration of H+ in solution, redox potential is used to express the tendency of anenvironment to receive or supply electrons. In this context, oxic environments, as thoseof river systems, are said to have a high redox potential because O2 is available as anelectron acceptor.Principles of thermodynamics and chemical kinetics allow to obtain a model that oftendoes not completely describe the reality of natural systems. Chemical reactions may indeedfail to achieve equilibrium because the products escape from the site of the rectionor because reactions involving the trasformation are very slow, so that non-equilibriumconditions exist for long periods. Moreover, reaction rates can be sensitive to poorly understoodcatalytic effects or to surface effects, while variables as concentration (a largenumber of chemical species can coexist and interact concurrently), temperature and pressurecan have large gradients in natural systems. By taking into account this, data of 91water samples have been modelled by using statistical methodologies for compositionaldata. The application of log–contrast analysis has allowed to obtain statistical parametersto be correlated with the calculated Eh values. In this way, natural conditions in whichchemical equilibrium is hypothesised, as well as underlying fast reactions, are comparedwith those described by a stochastic approach

Full label space reduction in MPLS networks: asymmetric merged tunneling

Traffic Engineering objective is to optimize network resource utilization. Although several works have been published about minimizing network resource utilization in MPLS networks, few of them have been focused in LSR label space reduction. This letter studies Asymmetric Merged Tunneling (AMT) as a new method for reducing the label space in MPLS network. The proposed method may be regarded as a combination of label merging (proposed in the MPLS architecture) and asymmetric tunneling (proposed recently in our previous works). Finally, simulation results are performed by comparing AMT with both ancestors. They show a great improvement in the label space reduction factor

Label Space Reduction in MPLS Networks: How Much Can A Single Stacked Label Do?

Most network operators have considered reducing LSR label spaces (number of labels used) as a way of simplifying management of underlaying virtual private networks (VPNs) and therefore reducing operational expenditure (OPEX). The IETF outlined the label merging feature in MPLS-allowing the configuration of multipoint-to-point connections (MP2P)-as a means of reducing label space in LSRs. We found two main drawbacks in this label space reduction a)it should be separately applied to a set of LSPs with the same egress LSR-which decreases the options for better reductions, and b)LSRs close to the edge of the network experience a greater label space reduction than those close to the core. The later implies that MP2P connections reduce the number of labels asymmetrically

Assessing the viability of power-supply systems: a tentative protocol

This Technical Report presents a tentative protocol used to assess the viability of powersupply systems. The viability of power-supply systems can be assessed by looking at the production factors (e.g. paid labor, power capacity, fossil-fuels) – needed for the system to operate and maintain itself – in relation to the internal constraints set by the energetic metabolism of societies. In fact, by using this protocol it becomes possible to link assessments of technical coefficients performed at the level of the power-supply systems with assessments of benchmark values performed at the societal level throughout the relevant different sectors. In particular, the example provided here in the case of France for the year 2009 makes it possible to see that in fact nuclear energy is not viable in terms of labor requirements (both direct and indirect inputs) as well as in terms of requirements of power capacity, especially when including reprocessing operations.