On the relevance of modeling volatility for pricing purposes

This paper presents a two-factor (Vasicek-CIR) model of the term structure of interest rates and develops its pricing and empirical properties. We assume that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread. Assuming a certain process for both factors, a general bond pricing equation is derived and a closed-form expression for bond prices is obtained. Empirical evidence of the model's performance in comparisson with a double Vasicek model is presented. The main conclusion is that the modeling of the volatility in the long-term rate process can help (in a large amount) to fit the observed data can improve - in a reasonable quantity - the prediction of the future movements in the medium- and long-term interest rates. However, for shorter maturities, it is shown that the pricing errors are, basically, negligible and it is not so clear which is the best model to be used.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

The provision of relative performance feedback information: An experimental analysis of performance and happiness

This paper studies the effect of providing relative performance feedback information onindividual performance and on individual affective response, when agents are rewardedaccording to their absolute performance. In a laboratory set-up, agents perform a realeffort task and when receiving feedback, they are asked to rate their happiness, arousaland feeling of dominance. Control subjects learn only their absolute performance, whilethe treated subjects additionally learn the average performance in the session.Performance is 17 percent higher when relative performance feedback is provided.Furthermore, although feedback increases the performance independent of the content(i.e., performing above or below the average), the content is determinant for theaffective response. When subjects are treated, the inequality in the happiness and thefeeling of dominance between those subjects performing above and below the averageincreases by 8 and 6 percentage points, respectively.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

Semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+in+ semiconductor structures: relevance of Pauli and long range Coulomb interactions

We work out a semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+-i-n+ semiconductor structures aiming at studying two fundamental physical correlations coming from Pauli exclusion principle and long-range Coulomb interaction. The theory provides a unifying scheme which, in addition to the current-voltage characteristics, describes the suppression of shot noise due to Pauli and Coulomb correlations in the whole range of system parameters and applied bias. The whole scenario is summarized by a phase diagram in the plane of two dimensionless variables related to the sample length and contact chemical potential. Here different regions of physical interest can be identified where only Coulomb or only Pauli correlations are active, or where both are present with different relevance. The predictions of the theory are proven to be fully corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Turn-on-time statistics of modulated lasers subjected to resonant weak optical feedback

We present analytical calculations of the turn-on-time probability distribution of intensity-modulated lasers under resonant weak optical feedback. Under resonant conditions, the external cavity round-trip time is taken to be equal to the modulation period. The probability distribution of the solitary laser results are modified to give reduced values of the mean turn-on-time and its variance. Numerical simulations have been carried out showing good agreement with the analytical results.

Relevance of dynamic wetting in viscous fingering patterns

We demonstrate that wetting effects at moving contact lines have a strong impact in viscous fingering patterns. Experiments in a rotating Hele-Shaw (HS) cell, dry or prewetted, show consistent morphological differences. When the wetting fluid invades a dry region, contact angle dynamics yield a kinetic contribution to the interface pressure drop that scales with capillary number as Ca2¿3 but is significantly larger than the Park-Homsy kinetic correction. Numerical results are in very good agreement with experiments and show that standard HS equations work best for prewetted cells.

Spectrum of gluten sensitive enteropathy in first degree relatives of patients with coeliac disease: clinical relevance of lymphocytic enteritis.

Background: Limited data on a short series of patients suggest that lymphocytic enteritis (classically considered as latent coeliac disease) may produce symptoms of malabsorption, although the true prevalence of this situation is unknown. Serological markers of coeliac disease are of little diagnostic value in identifying these patients. Aims: To evaluate the usefulness of human leucocyte antigen-DQ2 genotyping followed by duodenal biopsy for the detection of gluten-sensitive enteropathy in first-degree relatives of patients with coeliac disease and to assess the clinical relevance of lymphocytic enteritis diagnosed with this screening strategy. Patients and methods: 221 first-degree relatives of 82 DQ2+ patients with coeliac disease were consecutively included. Duodenal biopsy (for histological examination and tissue transglutaminase antibody assay in culture supernatant) was carried out on all DQ2+ relatives. Clinical features, biochemical parameters and bone mineral density were recorded. Results: 130 relatives (58.8%) were DQ2+, showing the following histological stages: 64 (49.2%) Marsh 0; 32 (24.6%) Marsh I; 1 (0.8%) Marsh II; 13 (10.0%) Marsh III; 15.4% refused the biopsy. 49 relatives showed gluten sensitive enteropathy, 46 with histological abnormalities and 3 with Marsh 0 but positive tissue transglutaminase antibody in culture supernatant. Only 17 of 221 relatives had positive serological markers. Differences in the diagnostic yield between the proposed strategy and serology were significant (22.2% v 7.2%, p<0.001). Relatives with Marsh I and Marsh II¿III were more often symptomatic (56.3% and 53.8%, respectively) than relatives with normal mucosa (21.1%; p=0.002). Marsh I relatives had more severe abdominal pain (p=0.006), severe distension (p=0.047) and anaemia (p=0.038) than those with Marsh 0. The prevalence of abnormal bone mineral density was similar in relatives with Marsh I (37%) and Marsh III (44.4%). Conclusions: The high number of symptomatic patients with lymphocytic enteritis (Marsh I) supports the need for a strategy based on human leucocyte antigen-DQ2 genotyping followed by duodenal biopsy in relatives of patients with coeliac disease and modifies the current concept that villous atrophy is required to prescribe a gluten-free diet.

Feedback control of unstable cellular solidification fronts

We present a feedback control scheme to stabilize unstable cellular patterns during the directional solidification of a binary alloy. The scheme is based on local heating of cell tips which protrude ahead of the mean position of all tips in the array. The feasibility of this scheme is demonstrated using phase-field simulations and, experimentally, using a real-time image processing algorithm, to track cell tips, coupled with a movable laser spot array device to heat the tips locally. We demonstrate, both numerically and experimentally, that spacings well below the threshold for a period-doubling instability can be stabilized. As predicted by the numerical calculations, cellular arrays become stable with uniform spacing through the feedback control which is maintained with minimal heating.

Spatial distribution and biomass of aquatic rooted macrophytes and their relevance in the metabolism of a Mediterranean coastal lagoon

This work aims to characterise the current autotrophic compartment of the Albufera des Grau coastal lagoon (Menorca, Balearic Islands) and to assess the relationship between the submerged macrophytes and the limnological parameters of the lagoon. During the study period the submerged vegetation was dominated by the macrophyte Ruppia cirrhosa, which formed dense extensive meadows covering 79% of the surface. Another macrophyte species, Potamogeton pectinatus, was also observed but only forming small stands near the rushing streams. Macroalgae were only occasionally observed. Macrophyte biomass showed a clear seasonal trend, with maximum values in July. The biomass of R. cirrhosa achieved 1760 g DW m-2, the highest biomass ever reported for this species in the literature. The seasonal production-decomposition cycle of the macrophyte meadows appears to drive the nutrient dynamics and carbon fluxes in the lagoon. Despite the significant biomass accumulation and the absence of a washout of nutrients and organic matter to the sea, the lagoon did not experience a dystrophic collapse. These results indicate that internal metabolism is more important than exchange processes in the lagoon.

Pseudo-two-girdles c-axis fabric patterns in a quartz-feldspar mylonite (Costabona granodiorite, Canigo massif)

An example of the relationship that exist between the preferred crystaliografic orientation of quartz grains and the attitude of the mylonite foliation of quartz-feldspar mylonites is described. These rocks are the result of the inhomogeneous deformation under low-grade metamorphic conditions of a late Hercynian granodiorite, intruded into the gneisses of the slopes of the Canig massif (Eastern Pyrenees). The Costabona mylonites have a quartz c-axis fabric in pseudo-twogirdles symmetrical with respect to the mylonite foliation and perpendicular to the shearband systems which produce an extensional crenulation of the mylonite foliation.

Motivic analysis and its relevance to raga identification in carnatic music

A raga is a collective melodic expression consisting of motifs. A raga can be identified using motifs which areunique to it. Motifs can be thought of as signature prosodic phrases. Different ragas may be composed of the same setof notes, or even phrases, but the prosody may be completely different. In this paper, an attempt is made to determinethe characteristic motifs that enable identification of a raga and distinguish between them. To determine this, motifs are first manually marked for a set of five popular raga by a professional musician. The motifs are then normalisedwith respect to the tonic. HMMs are trained for each motif using 80% of the data and about 20% are used for testing. The results do indicate that about 80% of the motifs are identified as belonging to a specific raga accurately.

Relevance of death receptors in nervous system: role in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases and targets for therapy

L’apoptosi és un procés fisiològic que controla el nombre de cèl·lules en organismes superiors. L’apoptosi està estrictament regulada i s’ha vist que està implicada en la patogènesi d’algunes malalties del sistema nerviós. En aquest sentit, un excés de mort cel·lular contribueix a les malalties neurodegenerati- ves, mentre que, el seu dèficit és una de les raons del desenvolupament de tumors. El punt principal de regulació del procés apoptòtic és l’activació de les caspases, cisteïna-proteases que tenen especificitat pels residus aspàrtic. Les caspases es poden activar per dos mecanismes principals: (1) alliberament de citocrom C dels mitocondris alterats al citoplasma i (2) l’activació dels receptors de la membrana anomenats receptors de mort (DR, de l’anglès death receptor). Aquests receptors s’han caracteritzat extensament en el sistema immunitari, mentre que en el sistema nerviós les seves funcions són encara desconegudes. El present article se centra en el paper dels DR en la patogènesi de malalties neurodegeneratives i suggereix el seu potencial des del punt de vista terapèutic. També es descriuen diverses molècules intracel·lulars caracteritzades per la seva habilitat en la modulació dels DR. Entre elles, presentem dues noves proteïnes – lifeguard i FAIM – que s’expressen específicament al sistema nerviós.

The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: the case of Spain

We estimate how climate variables affect price and acreage of productive farmland using the Ricardian approach. Furthermore, we use our estimations to evaluate the joint effects of possible cli- mate changes within the time horizon of 2010 and 2050. Our results show that the price of rainfed land in Spain tends to increase but rainfed acreage decreases. On the other hand, the effect on irrigated farmland price and acreage presents some mixed results, however, in the long run the dominant pattern is clearly increasing for both prices and acreage.