Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Temperament in Bach’s Well-tempered clavier: a historical survey and a new evaluation according to dissonance theory

After a historical survey of temperament in Bach’s Well-Tempered Clavier by Johann Sebastian Bach, an analysis of the work has been made by applying a number of historical good temperaments as well as some recent proposals. The results obtained show that the global dissonance for all preludes and fugues in major keys can be minimized using the Kirnberger II temperament. The method of analysis used for this research is based on the mathematical theories of sensory dissonance, which have been developed by authors such as Hermann Ludwig Ferdinand von Helmholtz, Harry Partch, Reinier Plomp, Willem J. M. Levelt and William A. Sethares

Sumak Kawsay, or the concept of living well, and perceptions about natural, urban and rural areas: the case of Cuenca (Ecuador)

This research explores critical environmental concepts from the standpoint of political ecology. It contrasts the Ecuadorian Kichua indigenous concept of Sumak Kawsay (i.e., living well), with discourses about natural, urban and rural areas. Sumak Kawsay was included in Ecuador’s 2008 constitution as an alternative to the neoclassical idea of development. This work reveals interesting insights from a variety of social and political viewpoints from both rural and urban areas. The research is based on the medium sized city of Cuenca, which is located in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. We used an adaptation of the Q Method to investigate stakeholders’ perceptions. Four remarkably well-defined viewpoints were revealed. Although these views contrast strongly with Sumak Kawsay, it is possible to transform this paradigm in the foundation of Cuenca’s public policies and institutional structure.

A Comparative analysis of oil production setors in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

Aquest article s'aplica un enfocament comparatiu de la gestió del sector petrolier en dos països rics en petroli a l'Orient Mitjà: Aràbia Saudita i els Emirats Àrabs Units (EAU). Més explícitament, s'examinen els factors que millor expliquen la variació en les estratègies que han vingut aplicant en el sector des de l'establiment de les seves empreses petrolieres nacionals (NOC). Recorrent a la literatura sobre expropiació / privatització en el camp d'Estudis de l'Energia, en aquest treball es proposa un marc teòric per analitzar la lògica que hi ha al darrera de les diferents formes d'exploració i les estratègies de producció en el sector petrolier. Teòricament, aquesta investigació té com a objectiu avançar en un conjunt d'eines d'anàlisi per abordar millor i entendre els determinants reals del procés de presa de decisions en el upstream. Empíricament, el model es prova en els casos divergents d'Aràbia Saudita i els Emirats Àrabs Units, i una sèrie de lliçons s'han extret. En última instància, aquest treball ha d'augmentar la conscienciació entre els erudits i els polític, tant sobre el poc coneixement que tenim sobre els mecanismes interns que impulsen les estratègies ascendents en el majors estats productor de petroli.

On the foundations of well-being economics and policy

When one wishes to implement public policies, there is a previous need of comparing different actions and valuating and evaluating them to assess their social attractiveness. Recently the concept of well-being has been proposed as a multidimensional proxy for measuring societal prosperity and progress; a key research topic is then on how we can measure and evaluate this plurality of dimensions for policy decisions. This paper defends the thesis articulated in the following points: 1. Different metrics are linked to different objectives and values. To use only one measurement unit (on the grounds of the so-called commensurability principle) for incorporating a plurality of dimensions, objectives and values, implies reductionism necessarily. 2. Point 1) can be proven as a matter of formal logic by drawing on the work of Geach about moral philosophy. This theoretical demonstration is an original contribution of this article. Here the distinction between predicative and attributive adjectives is formalised and definitions are provided. Predicative adjectives are further distinguished into absolute and relative ones. The new concepts of set commensurability and rod commensurability are introduced too. 3. The existence of a plurality of social actors, with interest in the policy being assessed, causes that social decisions involve multiple types of values, of which economic efficiency is only one. Therefore it is misleading to make social decisions based only on that one value. 4. Weak comparability of values, which is grounded on incommensurability, is proved to be the main methodological foundation of policy evaluation in the framework of well-being economics. Incommensurability does not imply incomparability; on the contrary incommensurability is the only rational way to compare societal options under a plurality of policy objectives. 5. Weak comparability can be implemented by using multi-criteria evaluation, which is a formal framework for applied consequentialism under incommensurability. Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation, in particular, allows considering both technical and social incommensurabilities simultaneously.

Characterization of human gene expression changes after olive oil ingestion: an exploratory approach

Olive oil consumption is protective against risk factors for cardiovascular and cancer diseases. A nutrigenomic approach was performed to assess whether changes in gene expression could occur in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells after oli ve oil ingestion at postprandial state. Six healthy male volunteers ingested, at fasting state, 50 ml of olive oil. Prior to intervention a 1-week washout period with a controlled diet and sunflower oil as the only source of fat was followed. During the 3 days before and on the intervention day, a very low-phenolic compound diet was followed. At baseline (0 h) and at post-ingestion (6 h), total RNA was isolated and gene expression (29,082 genes) was evaluated by microarray. From microarray data, nutrient-gene interactions were observed in genes related to metabolism, cellular processes, cancer, and atherosclerosis (e.g. USP48 by 2.16; OGT by 1.68-fold change) and associated processes such as inflammation (e.g. AKAP13 by 2.30; IL-10 by 1.66-fold change) and DNA damage (e.g. DCLRE1C by 1.47; POLK by 1.44- fold change). When results obtained by microarray were verified by qRT-PCR in nine genes, full concordance was achieved only in the case of up-regulated genes. Changes were observed at a real-life dose of olive oil, as it is daily consumed in some Mediterranean areas. Our results support the hypothesis that postprandial protective changes related to olive oil consumption could be mediated through gene expression changes.

The emergence of biofuels and the co-movement between crude oil and agricultural prices

Biofuels are becoming an alternative to non-renewable energy sources but we know little about the economic mechanisms influencing their prices. This paper studies the interrelationships between the spot prices of oil and those of agricultural commodities used as biofuel feedstocks. Using daily data since 1988, we identify a co-movement after 2005 that does not appear for other food-related commodities and is not due to general economic variables. We also find traces of the co-movement in the prices of a large biofuel stock. The results amount to the first systematic piece of empirical evidence linking spot oil and agricultural markets via the emergence of biofuels.

Mononuclear cell transcriptome response after sustained virgin olive oil consumption in humans: an exploratory nutrigenomics study

Virgin olive oil (VOO) is considered to be one of the main components responsible for the health benefits of the Mediterranean diet, particularly against atherosclerosis where peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMNCs) play a crucial role in atherosclerosis development and progression. The objective of this article was to identify the PBMNC genes that respond to VOO consumption in order to ascertain the molecular mechanisms underlying the beneficial action of VOO in the prevention of atherosclerosis. Gene expression profiles of PBMNCs from healthy individuals were examined in pooled RNA samples by microarrays after 3 weeks of moderate and regular consumption of VOO, as the main fat source in a diet controlled for antioxidant content. Gene expression was verified by qPCR. The response to VOO consumption was confirmed for individual samples (n = 10) by qPCR for 10 upregulated genes (ADAM17, ALDH1A1, BIRC1, ERCC5, LIAS, OGT, PPARBP, TNFSF10, USP48, and XRCC5). Their putative role in the molecular mechanisms involved in atherosclerosis development and progression is discussed, focusing on a possible relation with VOO consumption. Our data support the hypothesis that 3 weeks of nutritional intervention with VOO supplementation, at doses common in the Mediterranean diet, can alter the expression of genes related to atherosclerosis development and progression.

Oil price shocks, income and democracy

We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations ondemocratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploitthe very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations tostudy the effect of persistent (oil price-driven) income shocks ondemocracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oilexports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutionsfollowing upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to apositive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score byaround 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentagepoints in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratictransition is around 0.4 percentage points.

Illusory correlation in the remuneration of chief executive officers: It pays to play golf, and well

Illusory correlation refers to the use of information in decisions that is uncorrelated with the relevantcriterion. We document illusory correlation in CEO compensation decisions by demonstrating thatinformation, that is uncorrelated with corporate performance, is related to CEO compensation. We usepublicly available data from the USA for the years 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004 to examine the relationsbetween golf handicaps of CEOs and corporate performance, on the one hand, and CEO compensationand golf handicaps, on the other hand. Although we find no relation between handicap and corporateperformance, we do find a relation between handicap and CEO compensation. In short, golfers earnmore than non-golfers and pay increases with golfing ability. We relate these findings to the difficultiesof judging compensation for CEOs. To overcome this and possibly other illusory correlations inthese kinds of decisions, we recommend the use of explicit, mechanical decision rules.

Take-the-best and other simple strategies: Why and when they work 'well' in binary choice

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of bothrules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifiesthe relative predictive accuracies of the lexicographic rule 'take-the-best'(TTB) and other simple strategies for binary choice. We identify threefactors: how the environment weights variables; characteristics of choicesets; and error. For cases involving from three to five binary cues, TTBis effective across many environments. However, hybrids of equal weights(EW) and TTB models are more effective as environments become morecompensatory. In the presence of error, TTB and similar models do not predictmuch better than a naïve model that exploits dominance. We emphasizepsychological implications and the need for more complete theories of theenvironment that include the role of error.

Oil and economy in Mexico, 1900-1930s

This brief essay reviews the macro framework of oil and economy in Mexicoin the early days of the oil industry, from 1900 to 1938. The first sectiondisplays the figures of production at the world level and shows how Mexicobecome a major oil producer in the 1920s. The second section look at theMexican economy of the first third of the century followed by a thirdsection on the importance of the oil sector in terms of trade and fiscalincome. The last section reviews the literature and the outlooks of thecontemporaries over the development of the oil industry in the early partof the 20th century. The paper will be of use for those producing in depthanalyses of the Mexican oil industry in this period.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Processes and consequences in business ethical dilemmas: The oil industry and climate changes

This paper proposes a framework to examine business ethical dilemmas andbusiness attitudes towards such dilemmas. Business ethical dilemmas canbe understood as reflecting a contradiction between a socially detrimentalprocess and a self-interested profitable consequence. This representationallows us to distinguish two forms of behavior differing by whetherpriority is put on consequences or on processes. We argue that theseforms imply very different business attitudes towards society:controversial or competitive for the former and aligned or cooperativefor the latter. These attitudes are then analyzed at the discursive level in order to address the question of good faith in businessargumentation, i.e. to which extent are these attitudes consistent withactual business behaviors. We argue that consequential attitudes mostlyinvolve communication and lobbying actions aiming at eluding the dilemma.Therefore, the question of good faith for consequential attitudes liesin the consistency between beliefs and discourse. On the other hand,procedural attitudes acknowledge the dilemma and claim a change of theprocess of behavior. They thus raise the question of the consistencybetween discourses and actual behavior. We apply this processes/consequencesframework to the case of the oil industry s climate change ethical dilemmawhich comes forth as a dilemma between emitting greenhouse gases and making more profits . And we examine the different attitudes of two oilcorporations-BP Amoco and ExxonMobil-towards the dilemma.

The role of Mexico in the first oil shortage: 1918-1922, an international perspective

In 1921 Mexico produced a quarter of world s petroleum, making the country the secondlargest producer in the world, but by 1930 it only accounted for 3 per cent of world sproduction. To date the discussion has mostly relied on events taking place in Mexico forexplaining the decline of the industry. Very little attention has been placed todevelopments in petroleum industry elsewhere, except Venezuela. Practically noattention has been paid to the reasons for the rise of oil output in Mexico. This neglectsthe massive changes taking place in the petroleum industry worldwide during the GreatWar years and its aftermath, and overall ignores the shortage of oil that occurred in theworld s markets between 1918-1921. These are crucial events in order to understand theearly rise of the Mexican oil industry and set the basis for a better understanding of thesubsequent sudden decline.