A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

The referendum and popular consultations in the Autonomous State

The referendum is a poorly used mechanism for direct participation in the Spanish system, at both state and regional level. The discussion on the feasibility of this system at regional level has been examined by the Constitutional Court. Influenced by the reluctance with which constituents viewed the mechanisms of direct democracy, they still have a reductive view of the referendum. The State therefore reserves the right to exercise very intensive controls on the provision and authorization of referendums and on the specific exercise of each referendum

Social capital and government in the production of public goods

As a response to the rapidly growing empirical literature on social capital and the evidence of its correlation with government performance, we build a theoretical framework to study the interactions between social capital and government's action. This paper presents a model of homogeneous agents in an overlapping generations framework incorporating social capital as the values transmitted from parent to child. The government's role is to provide public goods. First, government expenditure is exogenously given. Then, it will be chosen at the preferred level of the representative agent. For both setups the equilibrium outcomes are characterized and the resulting dynamics studied. Briefly we include an analysis of the effect of productivity growth on the evolution of social capital. The results obtained caution caution against both the crowding out effect of the welfare state and the impact of sustained economic growth on social capital.

La nación de "los otros". Afrodescendientes porteños y la construcción de la nación argentina a fines del siglo XIX

Investigación producida a partir de una estancia en Buenos Aires en septiembre del 2007. Los procesos de consolidación de las naciones-estado llevan consigo una serie de políticas y prácticas que se focalizan en la construcción del "pueblo". Particularmente, la construcción del estado nacional argentino en el siglo XIX implicó la definición -por parte de los grupos de poder- de un pueblo que cumpliera con las expectativas que se esperaban de una joven nación que se encaminaba hacia la civilización y el progreso, es decir, lo que en esa época se correspondía con un imaginario de pueblo blanco y europeo. Así, se propiciaron políticas de erosión de quienes habitaban en el territorio nacional pero que no cumplían con aquellos mandatos, promoviendo su “invisibilización”. Nosotros trabajamos una de estas comunidades erosionadas de la memoria y de la historia nacional argentina, la comunidad de afrodescendientes de Buenos Aires. El objeto de la investigación que se está llevando a cabo es justamente el análisis de la población afroargentina de Buenos Aires en las últimas décadas del siglo XIX, un momento en que su presencia e historia estaban siendo negadas de los discursos y de las prácticas. Esta investigación de corte histórico-antropológico necesita para su consecución de un trabajo exhaustivo de archivos, objetivo principal de la beca de investigación fuera de Cataluña. Lo que se intentó en el viaje fue encontrar y rescatar fuentes que permitieran entrever las dinámicas de esta comunidad, sus formas de resistir y/o de negociar un estado nacional cada vez más fuerte y que sentaba las bases de lo que debía ser el “pueblo argentino”.

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

Hemilabile phosphine ligands in molybdenum and tungsten octahedral environments

The synthesis of three bidentate, hemilabile phosphine ligands, newly synthesized in the research group (TPOdiphos, DPPrPOdiphos and SODPdiphos), has been up-scaled and optimized. The ligand substitution reaction on Mo(CO)6 and W(CO)6 has been studied and the corresponding complexes fac-[MTPOdiphos(CO)3], fac-[MDPPrPOdiphos(CO)3], and fac-[MSODPdiphos(CO)3], (M= Mo, W) have been isolated in good yields and characterized by NMR, IR and HR MS. In the case of fac- [MoTPOdiphos(CO)3] the XRD crystal structure was resolved. The complexes were found to be octahedral, neutral molecules, with the metal in the zero oxidation state and the ligand adopting a facial P,P,O-coordination. The hard ligand atom (oxygen) is expected to exhibit special features the future applications of these novel ligands.

State Failure – A Rationale for EU Foreign Policy?

'Estats fallits' ha arribat a ser un lema popular per als acadèmics i els polítics per igual. En opinió dels governs occidentals i les institucions internacionals, els estats fallits no compleixen amb les condicions necessàries per assolir el desenvolupament econòmic i social i alhora proporcionar un terreny fèrtil per als actors violents conflictes i no estatals que participen en la delinqüència internacional. La Unió Europea té una relació de llarga data amb els països de l'Àfrica subsahariana, molts dels quals es caracteritzen per ser fallat. En aquest treball es pretén analitzar si el compromís retòric de la UE per fer front a la insuficiència de l'Estat es tradueix en un enfocament coherent davant les causes profundes de la fragilitat de l'Estat i pregunta pels factors que expliquen el compromís de la UE amb els problemes que enfronten aquests estats. Mitjançant la comparació de les polítiques europees cap a la República Democràtica del Congo, Sierra Leone i la República Centreafricana, s'argumenta que la resposta de la UE als Estats fallits es desenvolupa d'una manera incoherent esbiaixada cap a les situacions de conflicte en lloc de ser guiat per una preocupació més general per fragilitat . L'anàlisi suggereix que la participació de la UE es deu principalment a interessos coincidents en els Estats membres i de la UE.

Analysis and Design of a secure WLAN solution for Cobre Las Cruces

Cobre Las Cruces is a renowned copper mining company located in Sevilla, with unexpected problems in wireless communications that have a direct affectation in production. Therefore, the main goals are to improve the WiFi infrastructure, to secure it and to detect and prevent from attacks and from the installation of rogue (and non-authorized) APs. All of that integrated with the current ICT infrastructure.This project has been divided into four phases, although only two of them have been included into the TFC; they are the analysis of the current situation and the design of a WLAN solution.Once the analysis part was finished, some weaknesses were detected. Subjects such as lack of connectivity and control, ignorance about installed WiFi devices and their localization and state and, by and large, the use of weak security mechanisms were some of the problems found. Additionally, due to the fact that the working area became larger and new WiFi infrastructures were added, the first phase took more time than expected.As a result of the detailed analysis, some goals were defined to solve and it was designed a centralized approach able to cope with them. A solution based on 802.11i and 802.1x protocols, digital certificates, a probe system running as IDS/IPS and ligthweight APs in conjunction with a Wireless LAN Controller are the main features.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is knownabout its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-timestudents were prompted at random via cellular telephones to report on mood state and threeemotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions valence, arousal, and dominance were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley &Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explainedsignificant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for varianceover and above reason (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessedin a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data withsimple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided inan Appendix.

Long-run substitutability between more and less educated workers: Evidence from U.S. States 1950-1990

We estimate the aggregate long-run elasticity of substitution between more and less educatedworkers (the slope of the demand curve for more relative to less educated workers) at theUS state level. Our data come from the (five)1950-1990 decennial censuses. Our empiricalapproach allows for state and time fixed effects and relies on time and state dependentchild labor and compulsory school attendance laws as instruments for (endogenous) changesin the relative supply of more educated workers. We find the aggregate long-run elasticity ofsubstitution between more and less educated workers to be around 1.5.

The implicit theory of historical change in the work of Alan S. Milward

Alan S. Milward was an economic historian who developed an implicit theory ofhistorical change. His interpretation which was neither liberal nor Marxist positedthat social, political, and economic change, for it to be sustainable, had to be agradual process rather than one resulting from a sudden, cataclysmicrevolutionary event occurring in one sector of the economy or society. Benignchange depended much less on natural resource endowment or technologicaldevelopments than on the ability of state institutions to respond to changingpolitical demands from within each society. State bureaucracies were fundamentalto formulating those political demands and advising politicians of ways to meetthem. Since each society was different there was no single model of developmentto be adopted or which could be imposed successfully by one nation-state onothers, either through force or through foreign aid programs. Nor coulddevelopment be promoted simply by copying the model of a more successfuleconomy. Each nation-state had to find its own response to the political demandsarising from within its society. Integration occurred when a number of nation states shared similar political objectives which they could not meet individuallybut could meet collectively. It was not simply the result of their increasinginterdependence. It was how and whether nation-states responded to thesedomestic demands which determined the nature of historical change.