Trans-equatorial migration and mixing in the wintering areas of a pelagic seabird

Despite increasing interest in long-distance migration, the wintering areas, migration corridors, and population mix in winter quarters of most pelagic marine predators are unknown. Here, we present the first study tracking migration movements of shearwaters through the non-breeding period. We used geolocators (global location sensing [GLS] units based on ambient light levels) to track 22 Cory's shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) breeding in three different areas. Most birds wintered in one or more of three relatively small areas, all clearly associated with major coastal upwelling systems of the tropical and south Atlantic. Trans-equatorial movements were dominated by prevailing trade winds and westerlies, while calm, oligotrophic areas were avoided. Breeding populations clearly differed in their preference amongst the three major wintering areas, but showed substantial mixing. This illustrates the exceptional value of GLS, not only for determining and describing the influence of oceanographic features on migration patterns, but also for assessing population mix in winter quarters. This knowledge is essential to understanding the impacts of population-level threats, such as longlining, offshore windfarms, and oil spills on multiple breeding sites, and will be critical in devising conservation policies that guarantee the sustainable exploitation of the oceans.

A class of stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents related to Glauber dynamics on random graphs

We introduce and study a class of infinite-horizon nonzero-sum non-cooperative stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents using ideas of statistical mechanics. First we show, in the general case of asymmetric interactions, the existence of a strategy that allows any player to eliminate losses after a finite random time. In the special case of symmetric interactions, we also prove that, as time goes to infinity, the game converges to a Nash equilibrium. Moreover, assuming that all agents adopt the same strategy, using arguments related to those leading to perfect simulation algorithms, spatial mixing and ergodicity are proved. In turn, ergodicity allows us to prove “fixation”, i.e. that players will adopt a constant strategy after a finite time. The resulting dynamics is related to zerotemperature Glauber dynamics on random graphs of possibly infinite volume.

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific innovation covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.

Development of specific ITS markers for plant DNA identification within herbivorous insects

DNA based techniques have proved to be very useful methods to study trophic relationships 17 between pests and their natural enemies. However, most predators are best defined as omnivores, 18 and the identification of plant-specific DNA should also allow the identification of the plant 19 species the predators have been feeding on. In this study, a PCR approach based on the 20 development of specific primers was developed as a self-marking technique to detect plant DNA 21 within the gut of one heteropteran omnivorous predator (Macrolophus pygmaeus) and two 22 lepidopteran pest species (Helicoverpa armigera and Tuta absoluta). Specific tomato primers 23 were designed from the ITS 1-2 region, which allowed the amplification of a tomato DNA 24 fragment of 332 bp within the three insect species tested in all cases (100% of detection at t = 0) 25 and did not detect DNA of other plants nor of the starved insects. Plant DNA half-lives at 25ºC 26 ranged from 5.8h, to 27.7h and 28.7h within M. pygmaeus, H. armigera and T. absoluta, 27 respectively. Tomato DNA detection within field collected M. pygmaeus suggests dietary mixing 28 in this omnivorous predator and showed a higher detection of tomato DNA in females and 29 nymphs than males. This study provides a useful tool to detect and to identify plant food sources 30 of arthropods and to evaluate crop colonization from surrounding vegetation in conservation 31 biological control programs.

Selección de péptidos sintéticos del Virus de la Hepatitis G (GBV-C/HGV) inhibidores del Péptido de Fusión HIV-I

El GB virus C (GBV-C) o virus de l'hepatitis G (HGV) es un virus format per una única cadena de RNA que pertany a la familia Flaviviridae. En els últims anys, s'han publicat nombrosos treballs en els quals s'associa la coinfecció del GBV-C i del virus de la immunodeficiència humana (VIH) amb una menor progressió de l'esmentada malaltia així com amb una major supervivència dels pacients una vegada que la SIDA s'ha desenvolupat. El mecanisme pel qual el virus GBV-C/HGV exerceix un “efecte protector” en els pacients amb VIH encara no està descrit. L’estudi de la interacció entre els virus GBVC/HGV i VIH podria donar lloc al desenvolupament de nous agents terapèutics per al tractament de la SIDA.Treballs recents mostren com la capacitat inhibitòria del virus del GBV-C/HGV és deguda a la seva glicoproteina estructural E2. S’ha vist que aquesta proteina seria capaç d’inhibir la primera fase de replicació de VIH, així com la unió i la fusió amb les membranes cel•lulars. Sobre la base d’aquests estudis, l’objectiu d’aquest treball ha estat seleccionar inhibidors del pèptid de fusió del VIH utilitzant pèptids sintètics de la proteina E2 del GBV-C/HGV. El treball realitzat ha consistit en estudiar, utilitzant assajos biofísics de leakage i de lipid mixing, la capacitat dels pèptids de la proteina estructural del virus del GBV-C/HGV per inhibir la interacció i el procés de desestabilització de membranes induïdes pel pèptid de fusió de la glicoproteina de l’embolcall, GP41, del VIH. Aquests assajos, com es descriu en treballs anteriors, han resultat útils per a la selecció i la identificació de compostos amb activitat específica anti-GP41. Es pot afirmar que efectivament els pèptids seleccionats de la proteina E2 del virus del GBV-C/HGV inhibeixen l’activitat del pèptid de fusió del VIH probablement com a consequència d’un canvi conformacional en aquest darrer.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Approximation algorithms for two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems on bounded degree graphs

In a seminal paper [10], Weitz gave a deterministic fully polynomial approximation scheme for counting exponentially weighted independent sets (which is the same as approximating the partition function of the hard-core model from statistical physics) in graphs of degree at most d, up to the critical activity for the uniqueness of the Gibbs measure on the innite d-regular tree. ore recently Sly [8] (see also [1]) showed that this is optimal in the sense that if here is an FPRAS for the hard-core partition function on graphs of maximum egree d for activities larger than the critical activity on the innite d-regular ree then NP = RP. In this paper we extend Weitz's approach to derive a deterministic fully polynomial approximation scheme for the partition function of general two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems on graphs of maximum degree d, up to the corresponding critical point on the d-regular tree. The main ingredient of our result is a proof that for two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems on the d-regular tree, weak spatial mixing implies strong spatial mixing. his in turn uses a message-decay argument which extends a similar approach proposed recently for the hard-core model by Restrepo et al [7] to the case of general two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems.

Epidemilogia de la Influença porcina

La influenza es una enfermedad de gran importancia debido a su impacto sanitario y social. La especie porcina tiene importancia epidemiológica debido a su capacidad de actuar como eslabón adaptando los virus aviares a los mamíferos. Un mejor conocimiento de la enfermedad en la especie porcina permitirá definir mejor los métodos de lucha frente la enfermedad tanto en la especie humana como en la porcina. En el presente proyecto se pretende determinar los subtipos de virus influenza actualmente presentes en la cabaña porcina de España y estimar su seroprevalencia, así como estudiar los factores de riesgo que predisponen a la presencia de los virus influenza en las granjas de porcino. Para ello, se realizará una encuesta seroepidemiológica en la que se recogerán muestras de suero de animales de distintas edades (cerdas y cerdos de engorde) y se reunirán datos correspondientes a las características de las distintas explotaciones mediante una encuesta epidemiológica. Por otro lado, y con el fin de determinar la dinámica de infección de la enfermedad, se llevará a cabo un estudio longitudinal en dos explotaciones de ciclo cerrado seropositivas frente a Influenza porcina. En éstas explotaciones se recogerán muestras de suero y de hisopos nasales de un lote entero de producción, en intervalos que oscilarán de semanalmente a mensualmente. Los animales se muestrearan desde las tres semanas de vida hasta que sean enviados al matadero (aproximadamente a los 6 meses de vida). A partir de las muestras obtenidas se realizaran pruebas diagnósticas de carácter virológico y serológico. Este estudio aportará información acerca de la diseminación de los virus influenza en las explotaciones de cerdos, por lo que refiere a su comportamiento endémico/epidémico, clinico/subclínico, etc.

Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

Convex linear combination processes for compositions

Aitchison and Bacon-Shone (1999) considered convex linear combinations ofcompositions. In other words, they investigated compositions of compositions, wherethe mixing composition follows a logistic Normal distribution (or a perturbationprocess) and the compositions being mixed follow a logistic Normal distribution. Inthis paper, I investigate the extension to situations where the mixing compositionvaries with a number of dimensions. Examples would be where the mixingproportions vary with time or distance or a combination of the two. Practicalsituations include a river where the mixing proportions vary along the river, or acrossa lake and possibly with a time trend. This is illustrated with a dataset similar to thatused in the Aitchison and Bacon-Shone paper, which looked at how pollution in aloch depended on the pollution in the three rivers that feed the loch. Here, I explicitlymodel the variation in the linear combination across the loch, assuming that the meanof the logistic Normal distribution depends on the river flows and relative distancefrom the source origins

A compositional approach to stable isotope data analysis

Isotopic data are currently becoming an important source of information regardingsources, evolution and mixing processes of water in hydrogeologic systems. However, itis not clear how to treat with statistics the geochemical data and the isotopic datatogether. We propose to introduce the isotopic information as new parts, and applycompositional data analysis with the resulting increased composition. Results areequivalent to downscale the classical isotopic delta variables, because they are alreadyrelative (as needed in the compositional framework) and isotopic variations are almostalways very small. This methodology is illustrated and tested with the study of theLlobregat River Basin (Barcelona, NE Spain), where it is shown that, though verysmall, isotopic variations comp lement geochemical principal components, and help inthe better identification of pollution sources

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing modelsbetween end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework.We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study.We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables thatlay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hiddencomponents, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members.We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained totalvariance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphicalrepresentation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysisof diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, exceptfertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition.This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations areintrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

An electronic voting platform with elliptic curve cryptography

The future of elections seems to be electronic voting systems du to its advantatges over the traditional voting. Nowadays, there are some different paradigms to ensure the security and reliability of e-voting. This document is part of a wider project which presents an e-Voting platform based on elliptic curve cryptography. It uses an hybrid combination of two of the main e-Voting paradigms to guarantee privacy and security in the counting phase, these are precisely, the mixnets and the homomorphic protocols. This document is focused in the description of the system and the maths and programming needed to solve the homomorphic part of it. In later chapters, there is a comparison between a simple mixing system and our system proposal.

Tensile strength characteristics of polypropylene composites reinforced with stone groundwood fibers from softwood

The behavior of stone groundwood / polypropylene injection-molded composites was evaluated with and without coupling agent. Stone groundwood (SGW) is a fibrous material commonly prepared in a high yield process and mainly used for papermaking applications. In this work, the use of SGW fibers was explored as a reinforcing element of polypropylene (PP) composites. The surface charge density of the composite components was evaluated, as well as the fiber’s length and diameter inside the composite material. Two mixing extrusion processes were evaluated, and the use of a kinetic mixer, instead of an internal mixer, resulted in longer mean fiber lengths of the reinforcing fibers. On the other hand, the accessibility of surface hydroxyl groups of stone groundwood fibers was improved by treating the fibers with 5% of sodium hydroxide, resulting in a noticeable increase of the tensile strength of the composites, for a similar percentage of coupling agent. A new parameter called Fiber Tensile Strength Factor is defined and used as a baseline for the comparison of the properties of the different composite materials. Finally the competitiveness of stone groundwood / polypropylene / polypropylene-co-maleic anhydride system, which compared favorably to sized glass-fiber / polypropylene GF/PP and glass-fiber / polypropylene / polypropylene-co-maleic anhydride composite formulations, was quantified by means of the fiber tensile strength factor

Anharmonicity contributions to the vibrational second hyperpolarizability of conjugated oligomers

Restricted Hartree-Fock 6-31G calculations of electrical and mechanical anharmonicity contributions to the longitudinal vibrational second hyperpolarizability have been carried out for eight homologous series of conjugated oligomers - polyacetylene, polyyne, polydiacetylene, polybutatriene, polycumulene, polysilane, polymethineimine, and polypyrrole. To draw conclusions about the limiting infinite polymer behavior, chains containing up to 12 heavy atoms along the conjugated backbone were considered. In general, the vibrational hyperpolarizabilities are substantial in comparison with their static electronic counterparts for the dc-Kerr and degenerate four-wave mixing processes (as well as for static fields) but not for electric field-induced second harmonic generation or third harmonic generation. Anharmonicity terms due to nuclear relaxation are important for the dc-Kerr effect (and for the static hyperpolarizability) in the σ-conjugated polymer, polysilane, as well as the nonplanar π systems polymethineimine and polypyrrole. Restricting polypyrrole to be planar, as it is in the crystal phase, causes these anharmonic terms to become negligible. When the same restriction is applied to polymethineimine the effect is reduced but remains quantitatively significant due to the first-order contribution. We conclude that anharmonicity associated with nuclear relaxation can be ignored, for semiquantitative purposes, in planar π-conjugated polymers. The role of zero-point vibrational averaging remains to be evaluated