Manejo de la capacidad de recuperación en el modelo RMM del CERT

Este artículo compara diferentes marcos de trabajo y estándares del manejo de riesgo o relacionados, estableciendo ventajas y desventajas de su implementación; entre ellos, BS 25999, BS 25777, ISO/IEC 27000, COSO-ERM, ISO/IEC 20000, ITIL, Cobit 5, CERT-RMM, NIST SP-37. Describe cuales de los marcos comparados soporta procesos de negocio, procesos de TI, medición de la madurez e integración con otros marcos.

Manejo de las Lesiones Renales Menores de 4 Centímetros Mediante Ablación por Radiofrecuencia Percutánea

La nefrectomía parcial se ha constituido en el tratamiento de referencia de los tumores renales pequeños. En pacientes de alto riesgo quirúrgico se han planteado técnicas mínimamente invasivas como la ablación por radiofrecuencia como una alternativa terapéutica. En este estudio evaluamos nuestra experiencia en la aplicación de esta técnica en cuanto sus resultados oncológicos y en cuanto a su efecto sobre la función renal a los 3 y 12 meses de seguimiento. Se concluye que se trata de una técnica que no altera la función renal con resultados oncológicos prometedores que deben ser validados por estudios a largo plazo.

Estudio de la calidad ambiental de la Bahía de Cárdenas para un futuro manejo integrado de zonas costeras

Estudi de la qualitat ambiental de la Bahía de Cárdenas (Cuba) mitjançant una sèrie d’indicadors físico-químics de l’aigua que reflecteixen l’estat actual de l’ecosistema. Els resultats s’han contrastat amb la legislació cubana per tal de determinar el grau de contaminació de l’aigua. S’han estudiat les fonts contaminants i finalment s’han proposat una sèrie d’actuacions per a la seva millora

Adherencia a las guías de práctica clínica en el manejo intrahospitalario y al alta de los pacientes ingresados por síndrome coronario agudo. Influencia en la evolución.

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es evaluar el manejo intrahospitalario y al alta del SCA, para evaluar el grado de adherencia a las guías clínicas y ver su efecto en la evolución. Para ello realizamos registro continuo de pacientes consecutivos incluyendo los hospitalizados con diagnóstico de SCA y dolor torácico a estudio (DTE). Se ha realizado una primera evaluación durante el ingreso hospitalario y posteriormente al mes, 3 y 6 meses. Con respecto a los resultados y conclusiones destacar en primer lugar que la mayoría de los pacientes ingresados con el diagnóstico de dolor torácico a estudio muestran una baja probabilidad de cardiopatía isquémica. En el SCACEST la adherencia en cuanto a las recomendaciones de coronariografía y reperfusión son seguidas de acuerdo a otros registros publicados en la literatura. Se aprecia un manejo poco invasivo del SCASEST con porcentajes muy reducidos de cateterismo precoz en las primeras 24 horas en pacientes de riesgo moderado-alto. El tiempo de isquemia es uno de los aspectos claramente a mejorar en nuestro medio, en los dos tipos de SCA. En lo referido al manejo farmacológico, la adherencia a las recomendaciones es muy alta, incluso superior a las objetivadas en estudios publicados. En los pacientes con eventos cardiacos en el seguimiento se aprecia un manejo más conservador sin optar por una estrategia diagnóstico-terapéutica precoz, y un empleo menor de los fármacos de primera línea para la prevención secundaria de eventos coronarios.

Papel del hierro endovenoso para el manejo de la anemia preoperatoria en cirugía ortopédica mayor dentro de un programa de ahorro de sangre

Objetivos La anemia preoperatoria es frecuente en cirugía ortopédica mayor y es un factor predictivo de transfusión y de peor evolución postoperatoria. El objetivo de este estudio es evaluar la utilidad y seguridad del hierro endovenoso como tratamiento de la anemia preoperatoria y ferropenia en cirugía ortopédica mayor, y valorar la respuesta según el hierro utilizado y/o el tipo de anemia de acuerdo con el algoritmo de actuación de nuestro programa de ahorro de sangre. Material y métodos Análisis retrospectivo de una base de datos prospectiva de los pacientes programados para prótesis total de cadera (PTC) y de rodilla (PTR), en los últimos 5 años. Utilizamos la base de datos online PAS (Programa de Ahorro de Sangre) en www.awge.org que incluye: edad, sexo, peso, ASA, metabolismo del hierro, evolución de la hemoglobina (Hb), efectos adversos y transfusión. Resultados Se incluyeron en el PAS 3.488 pacientes de los cuales 612 (17,5%) presentaban anemia preoperatoria y 169 (27,6%) fueron tratados con hierro endovenoso (HE) De los pacientes tratados con HE (169), 35 recibieron hierro sacarosa (HS) y 134 hierro carboximaltosa (HCM). De acuerdo con el algoritmo de tratamiento, 101 lo recibieron por anemia por déficit de hierro (ADH), 26 por ferropenia sin anemia (DH), 21 por anemia de proceso crónico (APC) y 21 en otros tipos de anemia. El incremento de la Hb fue de 1 ± 09 g/dl en el DH, de 1.7± 1 g/dl en ADH y de 2.1 ± 1 g/dl en APC y otras anemias (P<0.001). El grupo del HCM la adherencia al tratamiento fue superior y necesitaron menos visitas (p<0.001). Los efectos adversos fueron leves y similares en ambos grupos. Conclusiones El hierro endovenoso (HS o HCM) es un tratamiento eficaz y seguro de la anemia preoperatoria en cirugia ortopédica mayor, aunque el HCM tiene la ventaja de conseguir el mismo resultado con sólo una administración.

Financial Crises and International Portfolio Dynamics

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents, especially during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. This is because when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This is especially true during severe crises and during systemic crises. The evidence can shed light on the nature of shocks driving international capital flows. It seems to favor shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically -e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information- over productivity shocks.

Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentalsand asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomicvariables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Resolving identities: Successive crises in a trading room after 9/11

How do organizations cope with extreme uncertainty? The existing literatureis divided on this issue: some argue that organizations deal best withuncertainty in the environment by reproducing it in the organization, whereasothers contend that the orga nization should be protected from theenvironment. In this paper we study the case of a Wall Street investment bankthat lost its entire office and trading technology in the terrorist attack ofSeptember 11 th. The traders survived, but were forced to relocate to amakeshift trading room in New Jersey. During the six months the traders spentoutside New York City, they had to deal with fears and insecurities insidethe company as well as outside it: anxiety about additional attacks,questions of professional identity, doubts about the future of the firm, andambiguities about the future re-location of the trading room. The firmovercame these uncertainties by protecting the traders identities and theirability to engage in sensemaking. The organization held together through aleadership style that managed ambiguities and created the conditions for newsolutions to emerge.

Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. The positive effect of financial liberalization is robust to different definitions. While the removal of capital account restrictions is effective by increasing financial depth, equity market liberalization affects growth directly. The empirical analysis is performed through GMM dynamic panel data estimations on a panel of 90 countries observed in the period 1975-1999.

Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages ofeconomic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where agents, who experience idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, can invest in a liquid storage technology or in a partially illiquid Cobb Douglas technology. By pooling liquidity risk, banks play a growth enhancing role in reducing inefficient liquidation of long term projects, but they may face liquidity crises associated with severe output losses. We show that middle income economies may find optimal to be exposed to liquidity crises, while poor and rich economies have more incentives to develop a fully covered banking system. Therefore, middle income economies could experience banking crises in the process of their development and, as they get richer, they eventually converge to a financially safe long run steady state. Finally, the model replicates the empirical fact of higher costs of banking crises for middle income economies.

Systemic crises and growth

In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have on average grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature. To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where weak institutions lead to severe financial constraints and low growth. Financial liberalization policies that facilitaterisk-taking increase leverage and investment. This leads to higher growth, but also toa greater incidence of crises. Conditions are established under which the costs of crises are outweighed by the benefits of higher growth.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.