Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

Long-term azithromycin therapy in patients with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and repeated pulmonary exacerbations

L’objectiu es determinar si el tractament amb azitromicina a llarg termini redueix la freqüència d’exacerbacions respiratòries en pacients amb malaltia pulmonar obstructiva crònica (MPOC) greu. Estudi retrospectiu observacional que avalua els beneficis clínics del tractament amb azitromicina a llarg termini (500 mg per via oral tres vegades per setmana) durant 12 mesos en pacients amb MPOC greu amb un mínim de 4 exacerbacions agudes (EAMPOC) per any o colonitzats per Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Es comparen amb els 12 mesos previs a l’introducció de l’azitromicina: nombre de EAMPOC, hospitalitzacions i dies d'estada hospitalària. L’azitromicina a llarg termini s’associa a una reducció significativa de EAMPOC, hospitalitzacions i dies d’estada hospitalària en pacients amb EPOC greu independentment de la colonització basal.

What do academic libraries have to do with Open Educational Resources? Theme : Long term sustainability of open education projects first steps to start up

This paper will discuss the possible roles of academic libraries in promoting, supporting, and sustaining institutional Open Educational Resource initiatives. It will note areas in which libraries or librarians have skills and knowledge that intersect with some of the needs of academic staff and students as they use and release OERs. It will also present the results of a brief survey of the views of some OER initiatives on the current and potential role of academic libraries.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Long-term effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral theraphy in a cohort of HIV-1 infected patients.

Eligibility criteria might explain differences in viral response to combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) between clinical trials and routine care setting. Prospective analysis including HIV-1 infected patients starting cART between January 2004 and December 2009, at Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron. Effectiveness evaluated as time to treatment failure (TF), defined as virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death or treatment discontinuation whatever the reason other than switching. Effectiveness month 12, 24 and 36 was 82.9%, 78.5% and 76%, respectively. 57 (24.6%) patients presented TF, mainly due to intolerance or toxicity. Higher risk in patients starting before 2006 and those with protease inhibitor based regimen.

Impairment of mossy fiber long-term potentiation and associative learning in pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide type I receptor-deficient Mice

The pituitary adenylate cyclase activating polypeptide (PACAP) type I receptor (PAC1) is a G-protein-coupled receptor binding the strongly conserved neuropeptide PACAP with 1000-fold higher affinity than the related peptide vasoactive intestinal peptide. PAC1-mediated signaling has been implicated in neuronal differentiation and synaptic plasticity. To gain further insight into the biological significance of PAC1-mediated signaling in vivo, we generated two different mutant mouse strains, harboring either a complete or a forebrain-specific inactivation of PAC1. Mutants from both strains show a deficit in contextual fear conditioning, a hippocampus-dependent associative learning paradigm. In sharp contrast, amygdala-dependent cued fear conditioning remains intact. Interestingly, no deficits in other hippocampus-dependent tasks modeling declarative learning such as the Morris water maze or the social transmission of food preference are observed. At the cellular level, the deficit in hippocampus-dependent associative learning is accompanied by an impairment of mossy fiber long-term potentiation (LTP). Because the hippocampal expression of PAC1 is restricted to mossy fiber terminals, we conclude that presynaptic PAC1-mediated signaling at the mossy fiber synapse is involved in both LTP and hippocampus-dependent associative learning.

Deferred effects of nursery school on adolescents' school performance in Spain

This research analysis the long-term effects of nursery school attendance before the age of three in Spain. The effects are measured when the individuals are adolescents and attend secondary school. The article deals with the controversy over the long-term effects of nursery school attendance and its potential effect on reducing inequalities and social exclusion. The results estimate a significant long-term effect of nursery school attendance on improving educational performance, although the beneficial effects are lower among adolescents residing in the lower status households.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

Hiring and firing costs, adverse selection and long-term unemployment

In this paper, we present a matching model with adverse selection that explains why flows into and out of unemployment are much lower in Europe compared to North America, while employment-to-employment flows are similar in the two continents. In the model,firms use discretion in terms of whom to fire and, thus, low quality workers are more likely to be dismissed than high quality workers. Moreover, as hiring and firing costs increase, firms find it more costly to hire a bad worker and, thus, they prefer to hire out of the pool of employed job seekers rather than out of the pool of the unemployed, who are more likely to turn out to be 'lemons'. We use microdata for Spain and the U.S. and find that the ratio of the job finding probability of the unemployed to the job finding probability of employed job seekers was smaller in Spain than in the U.S. Furthermore, using U.S. data, we find that the discrimination of the unemployed increased over the 1980's in those states that raised firing costs by introducing exceptions to the employment-at-will doctrine.

Is altruism important for understanding the long-run effects of social security?

This paper quantifies the effects of social security on capital accumulation and wealth distribution in a life cycle framework with altruistic individuals. The main findings of this paper are that the current U.S. social security system has a significant impact on capital accumulation and wealth distribution. I find that social security crowds out 8\% of the capital stock of an economy without social security. This effect is driven by the distortions of labor supply due to the taxation of labor income rather than by the intergenerational redistribution of income imposed by the social security system. In contrast to previous analysis of social security, I found that social security does not affect the savings rate of the economy. Another interesting finding is that even though the current U.S. social security system is progressive in its benefits, it may lead to a more disperse distribution of wealth.

Long term debt with hidden borrowing

We consider borrowers with the opportunity to raise funds from a competitive baking sector,that shares information about borrowers, and an alternative hidden lender. We highlight thatthe presence of the hidden lender restricts the contracts that can be obtained from the banking sector and that in equilibrium some borrowers obtain funds from both the banking sector and the (inefficient) hidden lender simultaneously. We further show that as the inefficiency of the hidden lender increases, total welfare decreases. By extending the model to examine a partially hidden lender, we further highlight the key role of information.

Glibenclamide enhances neurogenesis and improves long-term functional recovery after transient focal cerebral ischemia

Glibenclamide is neuroprotective against cerebral ischemia in rats. We studied whether glibenclamide enhances long-term brain repair and improves behavioral recovery after stroke. Adult male Wistar rats were subjected to transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) for 90 minutes. A low dose of glibenclamide (total 0.6mg) was administered intravenously 6, 12, and 24 hours after reperfusion. We assessed behavioral outcome during a 30-day follow-up and animals were perfused for histological evaluation. In vitro specific binding of glibenclamide to microglia increased after pro-inflammatory stimuli. In vivo glibenclamide was associated with increased migration of doublecortin-positive cells in the striatum toward the ischemic lesion 72 hours after MCAO, and reactive microglia expressed sulfonylurea receptor 1 (SUR1) and Kir6.2 in the medial striatum. One month after MCAO, glibenclamide was also associated with increased number of NeuN-positive and 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine-positive neurons in the cortex and hippocampus, and enhanced angiogenesis in the hippocampus. Consequently, glibenclamide-treated MCAO rats showed improved performance in the limb-placing test on postoperative days 22 to 29, and in the cylinder and water-maze test on postoperative day 29. Therefore, acute blockade of SUR1 by glibenclamide enhanced long-term brain repair in MCAO rats, which was associated with improved behavioral outcome.

Predictive factors in the long term outcome in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: six years follow up of 107 patients

There is little information concerning the long term outcome of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). Thus 109 patients with reflux symptoms (33 with erosive oesophagitis) with a diagnosis of GORD after clinical evaluation and oesophageal testing were studied. All patients were treated with a stepwise approach: (a) lifestyle changes were suggested aimed at reducing reflux and antacids and the prokinetic agent domperidone were prescribed; (b) H2 blockers were added after two months when symptoms persisted; (c) anti-reflux surgery was indicated when there was no response to (b). Treatment was adjusted to maintain clinical remission during follow up. Long term treatment need was defined as minor when conservative measures sufficed for proper control, and as major if daily H2 blockers or surgery were required. The results showed that one third of the patients each had initial therapeutic need (a), (b), and (c). Of 103 patients available for follow up at three years and 89 at six years, respective therapeutic needs were minor in 52% and 55% and major in 48% and 45%. Eighty per cent of patients in (a), 67% in (b), and 17% in (c) required only conservative measures at six years. A decreasing lower oesophageal sphincter pressure (p < 0.001), radiological reflux (p = 0.028), and erosive oesophagitis (p = 0.031), but not initial clinical scores, were independent predictors of major therapeutic need as shown by multivariate analysis. The long term outcome of GORD is better than previously perceived.

Willigness to pay for long-term care coverage: the role of private information and self-insurance

Both public and private insurance for long-term care is undeveloped in some European countries such as in Spain and empirical evidence is still limited. This paper aims at exmining the determinants of the demand for Long Term Care (LTC) coverage in Spain using contingent valuation techniques. Our findings indicate that only one-fifth of the population is willing to pay to assure coverage decisions are significantly affected by private information asymmetry and housing tenure in giving rise to self-insurance reduces the probability of insurance being hypothetically purchased.