A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Morphological changes in convection-diffusion-limited deposition

The effect of hydrodynamic flow upon diffusion-limited deposition on a line is investigated using a Monte Carlo model. The growth process is governed by the convection and diffusion field. The convective diffusion field is simulated by the biased-random walker resulting from a superimposed drift that represents the convective flow. The development of distinct morphologies is found with varying direction and strength of drift. By introducing a horizontal drift parallel to the deposition plate, the diffusion-limited deposit changes into a single needle inclined to the plate. The width of the needle decreases with increasing strength of drift. The angle between the needle and the plate is about 45° at high flow rate. In the presence of an inclined drift to the plate, the convection-diffusion-limited deposit leads to the formation of a characteristic columnar morphology. In the limiting case where the convection dominates, the deposition process is equivalent to ballistic deposition onto an inclined surface.

Morphology and segregation in two-component diffusion-limited aggregation

A diffusion-limited-aggregation (DLA) model with two components (A and B species) is presented to investigate the structure of the composite deposits. The sticking probability PAB (=PBA) between the different species is introduced into the original DLA model. By using computer simulation it is shown that various patterns are produced with varying the sticking probabilities PAB (=PBA) and PAA (= PBB), where PAA (=PBB) is the sticking probability between the same species. Segregated patterns can be analyzed under the condition PAB < PAA, assumed throughout the paper. With decreasing sticking probability PAB, a clustering of the same species occurs. With sufficiently small values of both sticking probabilities PAB and PAA, the deposit becomes dense and the segregated patterns of the composite deposit show a striped structure. The effect of the concentration on the pattern morphology is also shown.

Spontaneous mirror symmetry breaking in the limited enantioselective autocatalysis model: abyssal hydrotermal vents as scenario for the emergence of chirality in prebiotic chemistry

The emergence of chirality in enantioselective autocatalysis for compounds unable to transform according to the Frank-like reaction network is discussed with respect to the controversial limited enantioselectivity (LES) model composed of coupled enantioselective and non-enantioselective autocatalyses. The LES model cannot lead to spontaneous mirror symmetry breaking (SMSB) either in closed systems with a homogeneous temperature distribution or in closed systems with a stationary non-uniform temperature distribution. However, simulations of chemical kinetics in a two-compartment model demonstrate that SMSB may occur if both autocatalytic reactions are spatially separated at different temperatures in different compartments but coupled under the action of a continuous internal flow. In such conditions, the system can evolve, for certain reaction and system parameters, toward a chiral stationary state; that is, the system is able to reach a bifurcation point leading to SMSB. Numerical simulations in which reasonable chemical parameters have been used suggest that an ade- quate scenario for such a SMSB would be that of abyssal hydrothermal vents, by virtue of the typical temper- ature gradients found there and the role of inorganic solids mediating chemical reactions in an enzyme-like role. Key Words: Homochirality Prebiotic chemistry.

Tagging reveals limited exchange of immature loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) between regions in the western Mediterranean.

Exchange of immature loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) between the northern and southern regions of the western Mediterranean was investigated using data obtained from several Spanish tagging programmes. Tagged turtles ranged in straight carapace length from 23.0 to 74.0 cm. Thirty-six turtles were recaptured after an average interval of 390.5±462.6 days (SD). As the mean dispersal distance (MDD) of a turtle population that spreads over the western Mediterranean would stabilize after 117 days (CI 95%: 98 to 149), two analyses were conducted that included data from turtles recaptured after 98 and 149 days respectively. In both analyses, turtles were recaptured more often than expected in the same region where they had been tagged. No difference was found in either of the two regions between the average distance between the capture and recapture locations and the expected MDD if the turtles were to remain in the region where they were first captured. Turtles recaptured after 15 and 25 days respectively were excluded from the analysis to ensure data independence. The overall evidence indicates that immature turtles exhibit strong site fidelity to certain areas and that there is a strong barrier to dispersal between the northern and southern parts of the western Mediterranean. Therefore, loggerhead turtles in the western Mediterranean should be split into at least two management units.

Effect of drift on segregation in two-component diffusion-limited aggregation

An effect of drift is investigated on the segregation pattern in diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) with two components (A and B species). The sticking probability PAB (=PBA) between the different species is introduced into the DLA model with drift, where the sticking probability PAA (=PBB) between the same species equals 1. By using computer simulation it is found that the drift has an important effect on not only the morphology but also the segregation pattern. Under the drift and the small sticking probability, a characteristic pattern appears where elongated clusters of A species and of B species are periodically dispersed. The period decreases with increasing drift. The periodic structure of the deposits is characterized by an autocorrelation function. The shape of the cluster consisting of only A species (or B species) shows a vertically elongated filamentlike structure. Each cluster becomes vertically longer with decreasing sticking probability PAB. The segregation pattern is distinctly different from that with no drift and a small sticking probability PAA. The effect of the concentration on the segregation pattern is also shown.

Spontaneous Emergence of Chirality in the Limited Enantioselectivity Model: Autocatalytic Cycle Driven by an External Reagent

The emergence of chirality in enantioselective autocatalysis for compounds unable to transform according to the Frank-like reaction network is discussed with respect to the controversial limited enantioselectivity (LES) model composed of coupled enantioselective and non-enantioselective autocatalyses. The LES model cannot lead to spontaneous mirror symmetry breaking (SMSB) either in closed systems with a homogeneous temperature distribution or in closed systems with a stationary non-uniform temperature distribution. However, simulations of chemical kinetics in a two-compartment model demonstrate that SMSB may occur if both autocatalytic reactions are spatially separated at different temperatures in different compartments but coupled under the action of a continuous internal flow. In such conditions, the system can evolve, for certain reaction and system parameters, toward a chiral stationary state; that is, the system is able to reach a bifurcation point leading to SMSB. Numerical simulations in which reasonable chemical parameters have been used suggest that an adequate scenario for such a SMSB would be that of abyssal hydrothermal vents, by virtue of the typical temperature gradients found there and the role of inorganic solids mediating chemical reactions in an enzyme-like role.

Cooperation in R&D, firm size and type of partnership: Evidence for the Spanish automotive industry

This paper aims to analyse cooperation in R&D in the automobile industry in Spain. It first examines to what extent firms cooperate with external actors in the field of technological innovation, and if so, with what type of cooperation partner, paying special attention to the differentiation according to the size of the firms. Second, it aims to study how the firm’s size may affect not only the decision of cooperating but also with which type of partner, while controlling for other determinants that have been considered in the literature as main drivers of collaborative activities in R&D. We use data provided by the Technological Innovation Panel in the 2006-2008 period for firms in the automotive sector. We estimate a bivariate probit model that takes into account the two types of cooperation mostly present in the automotive industry, vertical and institutional, explicitly considering the interdependencies that may arise in the simultaneous choice of both.

Cooperation in R&D, firm size and type of partnership: Evidence for the Spanish automotive industry

This paper aims to analyse cooperation in R&D in the automobile industry in Spain. It first examines to what extent firms cooperate with external actors in the field of technological innovation, and if so, with what type of cooperation partner, paying special attention to the differentiation according to the size of the firms. Second, it aims to study how the firm’s size may affect not only the decision of cooperating but also with which type of partner, while controlling for other determinants that have been considered in the literature as main drivers of collaborative activities in R&D. We use data provided by the Technological Innovation Panel in the 2006-2008 period for firms in the automotive sector. We estimate a bivariate probit model that takes into account the two types of cooperation mostly present in the automotive industry, vertical and institutional, explicitly considering the interdependencies that may arise in the simultaneous choice of both.