The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

The complexity of random ordered structures

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Optimal monitoring to implement clean technologies when pollution is random

We analyze a model where firms chose a production technology which, together with some random event, determines the final emission level. We consider the coexistence of two alternative technologies: a "clean" technology, and a "dirty" technology. The environmental regulation is based on taxes over reported emissions, and on penalties over unreported emissions. We show that the optimal inspection policy is a cut-off strategy, for several scenarios concerning the observability of the adoption of the clean technology and the cost of adopting it. We also show that the optimal inspection policy induces the firm to adopt the clean technology if the adoption cost is not too high, but the cost levels for which the firm adopts it depend on the scenario.

Characterisation of neutron spectra in mixed high energy fields in lineal accelerators: response functions validation

Actualment, la resposta de la majoria d’instrumentació operacional i dels dosímetres personals utilitzats en radioprotecció per a la dosimetria neutrònica és altament dependent de l’energia dels espectres neutrònics a analitzar, especialment amb camps neutrònics amb una important component intermitja. En conseqüència, la interpretació de les lectures d’aquests aparells es complicada si no es té un coneixement previ de la distribució espectral de la fluència neutrònica en els punts d’interès. El Grup de Física de les Radiacions de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (GFR-UAB) ha desenvolupat en els últims anys un espectròmetre de neutrons basat en un Sistema d’Esferes Bonner (BSS) amb un contador proporcional d’3He com a detector actiu. Els principals avantatges dels espectròmetres de neutrons per BSS són: la seva resposta isotròpica, la possibilitat de discriminar la component neutrònica de la gamma en camps mixtos, i la seva alta sensibilitat neutrònica als nivells de dosi analitzats. Amb aquestes característiques, els espectròmetres neutrònics per BSS compleixen amb els estándards de les últimes recomanacions de la ICRP i poden ser utilitzats també en el camp de la dosimetria neutrònica per a la mesura de dosis en el rang d’energia que va dels tèrmics fins als 20 MeV, en nou ordres de magnitud. En el marc de la col•laboració entre el GFR - UAB i el Laboratorio Nazionale di Frascati – Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (LNF-INFN), ha tingut lloc una experiència comparativa d’espectrometria per BSS amb els feixos quasi monoenergètics de 2.5 MeV i 14 MeV del Fast Neutron Generator de l’ENEA. En l’exercici s’ha determinat l’espectre neutrònic a diferents distàncies del blanc de l’accelerador, aprofitant el codi FRUIT recentment desenvolupat pel grup LNF. Els resultats obtinguts mostren una bona coherència entre els dos espectròmetres i les dades mesurades i simulades.

Dance movement patterns recognition

"Es tracta d'un projecte dividit en dues parts independents però complementàries, realitzades per autors diferents. Aquest document conté originàriament altre material i/o programari només consultable a la Biblioteca de Ciència i Tecnologia"

Random graphs on surfaces

Counting labelled planar graphs, and typical properties of random labelled planar graphs, have received much attention recently. We start the process here of extending these investigations to graphs embeddable on any fixed surface S. In particular we show that the labelled graphs embeddable on S have the same growth constant as for planar graphs, and the same holds for unlabelled graphs. Also, if we pick a graph uniformly at random from the graphs embeddable on S which have vertex set {1, . . . , n}, then with probability tending to 1 as n → ∞, this random graph either is connected or consists of one giant component together with a few nodes in small planar components.

A class of stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents related to Glauber dynamics on random graphs

We introduce and study a class of infinite-horizon nonzero-sum non-cooperative stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents using ideas of statistical mechanics. First we show, in the general case of asymmetric interactions, the existence of a strategy that allows any player to eliminate losses after a finite random time. In the special case of symmetric interactions, we also prove that, as time goes to infinity, the game converges to a Nash equilibrium. Moreover, assuming that all agents adopt the same strategy, using arguments related to those leading to perfect simulation algorithms, spatial mixing and ergodicity are proved. In turn, ergodicity allows us to prove “fixation”, i.e. that players will adopt a constant strategy after a finite time. The resulting dynamics is related to zerotemperature Glauber dynamics on random graphs of possibly infinite volume.

Jugant amb l'atzar i la probabilitat

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. Quins científics van interessar-se per la probabilitat en els seus inicis?, quins altres van fer-la evolucionar? i quins conceptes coneixem i apliquem a l'actualitat? són preguntes que el treball teòric es proposa respondre. Pel que fa a la part pràctica del treball, el seu objectiu és el de crear un mecanisme capaç de generar nombres aleatoris a partir d'un taulell condicionat per paràmetres. El treball s'estructura en 4 blocs que aborden diversos camps de la probabilitat: la història de la probabilitat, els conceptes bàsics de la probabilitat, una introducció pràctica al mecanisme aleatori i el treball de camp. Els resultats finals rebel·len la possibilitat de generar nombres aleatoris a partir d'aparells senzills.

Aspects of Iwasawa theory over function fields

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Spectral analysis of random sparse matrices

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Propagation connectivity of random hypergraphs

We study the concept of propagation connectivity on random 3-uniform hypergraphs. This concept is inspired by a simple linear time algorithm for solving instances of certain constraint satisfaction problems. We derive upper and lower bounds for the propagation connectivity threshold, and point out some algorithmic implications.

Pseudomarkets with priorities in large random assignment economies

I study large random assignment economies with a continuum of agents and a finite number of object types. I consider the existence of weak priorities discriminating among agents with respect to their rights concerning the final assignment. The respect for priorities ex ante (ex-ante stability) usually precludes ex-ante envy-freeness. Therefore I define a new concept of fairness, called no unjustified lower chances: priorities with respect to one object type cannot justify different achievable chances regarding another object type. This concept, which applies to the assignment mechanism rather than to the assignment itself, implies ex-ante envy-freeness among agents of the same priority type. I propose a variation of Hylland and Zeckhauser' (1979) pseudomarket that meets ex-ante stability, no unjustified lower chances and ex-ante efficiency among agents of the same priority type. Assuming enough richness in preferences and priorities, the converse is also true: any random assignment with these properties could be achieved through an equilibrium in a pseudomarket with priorities. If priorities are acyclical (the ordering of agents is the same for each object type), this pseudomarket achieves ex-ante efficient random assignments.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

Control of optical fields and single photon emitters by advanced nanoantenna structures

The control of optical fields on the nanometre scale is becoming an increasingly important tool in many fields, ranging from channelling light delivery in photovoltaics and light emitting diodes to increasing the sensitivity of chemical sensors to single molecule levels. The ability to design and manipulate light fields with specific frequency and space characteristics is explored in this project. We present an alternative realisation of Extraordinary Optical Transmission (EOT) that requires only a single aperture and a coupled waveguide. We show how this waveguide-resonant EOT improves the transmissivity of single apertures. An important technique in imaging is Near-Field Scanning Optical Microscopy (NSOM); we show how waveguide-resonant EOT and the novel probe design assist in improving the efficiency of NSOM probes by two orders of magnitude, and allow the imaging of single molecules with an optical resolution of as good as 50 nm. We show how optical antennas are fabricated into the apex of sharp tips and can be used in a near-field configuration.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn