The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Synovial fluid examination for the diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis in patients with chronic renal failure undergoing haemodialysis

The diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis is based upon synovial biopsy. Synovial fluid (SF) in seven patients with amyloid arthropathy associated with chronic renal failure undergoing haemodialysis were studied. The SF and synovial samples of 10 consecutive patients with seronegative mono- or oligoarthritis served as controls. Six of the seven patients with amyloid positive synovial biopsy specimens showed amyloid in their SF. No amyloid was found in the synovial tissue or fluid of the 10 patients in the control group, the sensitivity being 87.7%. The finding of amyloid in SF was highly reproducible, showing its presence in the same joint on several occasions. The deposits were Congophilia resistant to potassium permanganate pretreatment, and the immunohistochemical analysis proved that they contained beta 2 microglobulin. The high sensitivity and good reproducibility of the method shows that the finding of amyloid in SF is sufficient for the diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis. It is possible to perform immunohis

Role of fluid mixing in deep dissolution of carbonates

The presence of cavities filled with new minerals in carbonate rocks is a common feature in oil reservoirs and lead-zinc deposits. Since groundwater equilibrates rapidly with carbonates, the presence of dissolution cavities in deep carbonate host rocks is a paradox. Two alternative geochemical processes have been proposed to dissolve carbonates at depth: hydrogen sulfide oxidation to sulfuric acid, and metal sulfide precipitation. With the aid of geochemical modeling we show that mixing two warm solutions saturated with carbonate results in a new solution that dissolves limestone. Variations in the proportion of the end-member fluids can also form a supersaturated mixture and fill the cavity with a new generation of carbonate. Mixing is in general more effective in dissolving carbonates than the aforementioned processes. Moreover, mixing is consistent with the wide set of textures and mineral proportions observed in cavity infillings.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Low-loss rib waveguides containing Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2

We report on the study and modeling of the structural and optical properties of rib-loaded waveguides working in the 600-900-nm spectral range. A Si nanocrystal (Si-nc) rich SiO2 layer with nominal Si excess ranging from 10% to 20% was produced by quadrupole ion implantation of Si into thermal SiO2 formed on a silicon substrate. Si-ncs were precipitated by annealing at 1100°C, forming a 0.4-um-thick core layer in the waveguide. The Si content, the Si-nc density and size, the Si-nc emission, and the active layer effective refractive index were determined by dedicated experiments using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy, photoluminescence and m-lines spectroscopy. Rib-loaded waveguides were fabricated by photolithographic and reactive ion etching processes, with patterned rib widths ranging from 1¿to¿8¿¿m. Light propagation in the waveguide was observed and losses of 11dB/cm at 633 and 780 nm were measured, modeled and interpreted.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Fluid dynamical prediction of changed v1 flow at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Substantial collective flow is observed in collisions between lead nuclei at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) as evidenced by the azimuthal correlations in the transverse momentum distributions of the produced particles. Our calculations indicate that the global v1-flow, which at RHIC peaked at negative rapidities (named third flow component or antiflow), now at LHC is going to turn toward forward rapidities (to the same side and direction as the projectile residue). Potentially this can provide a sensitive barometer to estimate the pressure and transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma. Our calculations also take into account the initial state center-of-mass rapidity fluctuations, and demonstrate that these are crucial for v1 simulations. In order to better study the transverse momentum flow dependence we suggest a new "symmetrized" v1S(pt) function, and we also propose a new method to disentangle global v1 flow from the contribution generated by the random fluctuations in the initial state. This will enhance the possibilities of studying the collective Global v1 flow both at the STAR Beam Energy Scan program and at LHC.

Interfacial instabilities of a fluid annulus in a rotating Hele-Shaw cell

We have studied the interfacial instabilities experienced by a liquid annulus as it moves radially in a circular Hele-Shaw cell rotating with angular velocity Omega. The instability of the leading interface (oil displacing air) is driven by the density difference in the presence of centrifugal forcing, while the instability of the trailing interface (air displacing oil) is driven by the large viscosity contrast. A linear stability analysis shows that the stability of the two interfaces is coupled through the pressure field already at a linear level. We have performed experiments in a dry cell and in a cell coated with a thin fluid layer on each plate, and found that the stability depends substantially on the wetting conditions at the leading interface. Our experimental results of the number of fingers resulting from the instability compare well with the predictions obtained through a numerical integration of the coupled equations derived from a linear stability analysis. Deep in the nonlinear regime we observe the emission of liquid droplets through the formation of thin filaments at the tip of outgrowing fingers.

Three-dimensional aspects of fluid flows in channels. II. Effects of meniscus and thin film regimes on viscous fingers

We perform a three-dimensional study of steady state viscous fingers that develop in linear channels. By means of a three-dimensional lattice-Boltzmann scheme that mimics the full macroscopic equations of motion of the fluid momentum and order parameter, we study the effect of the thickness of the channel in two cases. First, for total displacement of the fluids in the channel thickness direction, we find that the steady state finger is effectively two-dimensional and that previous two-dimensional results can be recovered by taking into account the effect of a curved meniscus across the channel thickness as a contribution to surface stresses. Second, when a thin film develops in the channel thickness direction, the finger narrows with increasing channel aspect ratio in agreement with experimental results. The effect of the thin film renders the problem three-dimensional and results deviate from the two-dimensional prediction.