Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Interactions between grain size and composition of sediments: two examples

Two contrasting case studies of sediment and detrital mineral composition are investigated in order to outline interactions between chemical composition and grain size. Modern glacial sediments exhibit a strong dependence of the two parameters due to the preferential enrichment of mafic minerals, especially biotite, in the fine-grained fractions. On the other hand, the composition of detrital heavy minerals (here: rutile) appears to be not systematically related to grain-size, but is strongly controlled by location, i.e. the petrology of the source rocks of detrital grains. This supports the use of rutile as a well-suited tracer mineral for provenance studies. The results further suggest that (i) interpretations derived from whole-rock sediment geochemistry should be flanked by grain-size observations, and (ii) a more sound statistical evaluation of these interactions require the development of new tailor-made statistical tools to deal with such so-called two-way compositions

Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

Strategies for an integrated distribution problem

The problems arising in the logistics of commercial distribution are complexand involve several players and decision levels. One important decision isrelated with the design of the routes to distribute the products, in anefficient and inexpensive way.This article explores three different distribution strategies: the firststrategy corresponds to the classical vehicle routing problem; the second isa master route strategy with daily adaptations and the third is a strategythat takes into account the cross-functional planning through amulti-objective model with two objectives. All strategies are analyzed ina multi-period scenario. A metaheuristic based on the Iteratetd Local Search,is used to solve the models related with each strategy. A computationalexperiment is performed to evaluate the three strategies with respect to thetwo objectives. The cross functional planning strategy leads to solutions thatput in practice the coordination between functional areas and better meetbusiness objectives.

A new light on Minkowski's? $(x)$ function

The well--known Minkowski's? $(x)$ function is presented as the asymptotic distribution function of an enumeration of the rationals in (0,1] based on their continued fraction representation. Besides, the singularity of ?$(x)$ is clearly proved in two ways: by exhibiting a set of measure one in which ?ï$(x)$ = 0; and again by actually finding a set of measure one which is mapped onto a set of measure zero and viceversa. These sets are described by means of metrical properties of different systems for real number representation.

Detection of moving groups among early type stars

Our procedure to detect moving groups in the solar neighbourhood (Chen et al., 1997) in the four-dimensional space of the stellar velocity components and age has been improved. The method, which takes advantadge of non-parametric estimators of density distribution to avoid any a priori knowledge of the kinematic properties of these stellar groups, now includes the effect of observational errors on the process to select moving group stars, uses a better estimation of the density distribution of the total sample and field stars, and classifies moving group stars using all the available information. It is applied here to an accurately selected sample of early-type stars with known radial velocities and Strömgren photometry. Astrometric data are taken from the HIPPARCOS catalogue (ESA, 1997), which results in an important decrease in the observational errors with respect to ground-based data, and ensures the uniformity of the observed data. Both the improvement of our method and the use of precise astrometric data have allowed us not only to confirm the existence of classical moving groups, but also to detect finer structures that in several cases can be related to kinematic properties of nearby open clusters or associations.

Micro-Raman study of stress distribution in local isolation structures and correlation with transmission electron microscopy

Stress in local isolation structures is studied by micro‐Raman spectroscopy. The results are correlated with predictions of an analytical model for the stress distribution and with cross‐sectional transmission electron microscopy observations. The measurements are performed on structures on which the Si3N4 oxidation mask is still present. The influence of the pitch of the periodic local isolation pattern, consisting of parallel lines, the thickness of the mask, and the length of the bird"s beak on the stress distribution are studied. It is found that compressive stress is present in the Si substrate under the center of the oxidation mask lines, with a magnitude dependent on the width of the lines. Large tensile stress is concentrated under the bird"s beak and is found to increase with decreasing length of the bird"s beak and with increasing thickness of the Si3N4 film.

Spanning avalanches in the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model with metastable dynamics: Field dependence and geometrical properties

Spanning avalanches in the 3D Gaussian Random Field Ising Model (3D-GRFIM) with metastable dynamics at T=0 have been studied. Statistical analysis of the field values for which avalanches occur has enabled a Finite-Size Scaling (FSS) study of the avalanche density to be performed. Furthermore, a direct measurement of the geometrical properties of the avalanches has confirmed an earlier hypothesis that several types of spanning avalanches with two different fractal dimensions coexist at the critical point. We finally compare the phase diagram of the 3D-GRFIM with metastable dynamics with the same model in equilibrium at T=0.

Wave propagation in a medium with disordered excitability

The effect of quenched disorder on the propagation of autowaves in excitable media is studied both experimentally and numerically in relation to the light-sensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction. The spatial disorder is introduced through a random distribution with two different levels of transmittance. In one dimension the (time-averaged) wave speed is smaller than the corresponding to a homogeneous medium with the mean excitability. Contrarily, in two dimensions the velocity increases due to the roughening of the front. Results are interpreted using kinematic and scaling arguments. In particular, for d = 2 we verify a theoretical prediction of a power-law dependence for the relative change of the propagation speed on the disorder amplitude.

Statistical mechanics in the extended Gaussian ensemble

The extended Gaussian ensemble (EGE) is introduced as a generalization of the canonical ensemble. This ensemble is a further extension of the Gaussian ensemble introduced by Hetherington [J. Low Temp. Phys. 66, 145 (1987)]. The statistical mechanical formalism is derived both from the analysis of the system attached to a finite reservoir and from the maximum statistical entropy principle. The probability of each microstate depends on two parameters ß and ¿ which allow one to fix, independently, the mean energy of the system and the energy fluctuations, respectively. We establish the Legendre transform structure for the generalized thermodynamic potential and propose a stability criterion. We also compare the EGE probability distribution with the q-exponential distribution. As an example, an application to a system with few independent spins is presented.

Microscopic calculations of the excitation spectrum of one 3He impurity in liquid 4He

We calculate the chemical potential ¿0 and the effective mass m*/m3 of one 3He impurity in liquid 4He. First a variational wave function including two- and three-particle dynamical correlations is adopted. Triplet correlations bring the computed values of ¿0 very close to the experimental results. The variational estimate of m*/m3 includes also backflow correlations between the 3He atom and the particles in the medium. Different approximations for the three-particle distribution function give almost the same values for m*/m3. The variational approach underestimates m*/m3 by ~10% at all of the considered densities. Correlated-basis perturbation theory is then used to improve the wave function to include backflow around the particles of the medium. The perturbative series built up with one-phonon states only is summed up to infinite order and gives results very close to the variational ones. All the perturbative diagrams with two independent phonons have then been summed to compute m*/m3. Their contribution depends to some extent on the form used for the three-particle distribution function. When the scaling approximation is adopted, a reasonable agreement with the experimental results is achieved.

Magnetic structure of Li2CuO2: From ab initio calculations to macroscopic simulations

The magnetic structure of the edge-sharing cuprate compound Li2CuO2 has been investigated with highly correlated ab initio electronic structure calculations. The first- and second-neighbor in-chain magnetic interactions are calculated to be 142 and -22 K, respectively. The ratio between the two parameters is smaller than suggested previously in the literature. The interchain interactions are antiferromagnetic in nature and of the order of a few K only. Monte Carlo simulations using the ab initio parameters to define the spin model Hamiltonian result in a Nel temperature in good agreement with experiment. Spin population analysis situates the magnetic moment on the copper and oxygen ions between the completely localized picture derived from experiment and the more delocalized picture based on local-density calculations.

Magnetic structure of Li2CuO2: From ab initio calculations to macroscopic simulations

The magnetic structure of the edge-sharing cuprate compound Li2CuO2 has been investigated with highly correlated ab initio electronic structure calculations. The first- and second-neighbor in-chain magnetic interactions are calculated to be 142 and -22 K, respectively. The ratio between the two parameters is smaller than suggested previously in the literature. The interchain interactions are antiferromagnetic in nature and of the order of a few K only. Monte Carlo simulations using the ab initio parameters to define the spin model Hamiltonian result in a Nel temperature in good agreement with experiment. Spin population analysis situates the magnetic moment on the copper and oxygen ions between the completely localized picture derived from experiment and the more delocalized picture based on local-density calculations.

Wave propagation in a medium with disordered excitability

The effect of quenched disorder on the propagation of autowaves in excitable media is studied both experimentally and numerically in relation to the light-sensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction. The spatial disorder is introduced through a random distribution with two different levels of transmittance. In one dimension the (time-averaged) wave speed is smaller than the corresponding to a homogeneous medium with the mean excitability. Contrarily, in two dimensions the velocity increases due to the roughening of the front. Results are interpreted using kinematic and scaling arguments. In particular, for d = 2 we verify a theoretical prediction of a power-law dependence for the relative change of the propagation speed on the disorder amplitude.

Assessing the pH and DP of canvasses with NIR spectroscopy

The canvas support in easel paintings is composed mainly of cellulose. One of the maindegradation paths of cellulose is acid-catalysed hydrolysis, which means that in an acidic environment (low pH), its degradation proceeds at a faster rate (Strlič et al., 2005).The main effect of acid-catalysed hydrolysis is the breaking up of the polymer chains,measured by the “Degree of Polymerisation” (DP). The lowering of the DP value impliesa lower mechanical strength of the textile (Scicolone, 1993), and thus this parameter canbe used to monitor degradation. Knowing these two parameters can, therefore, be veryinformative regarding the condition of the canvas support.