RiskDiff: A web tool for the analysis of the difference due to risk and demographic factors for incidence or mortality data.

Background Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice. Results A web-based application, called RiskDiff has been implemented (available at http://rht.iconcologia.net/riskdiff.htm webcite), to perform this kind of statistical analyses, providing text and graphical summaries. Code from the implemented functions in R is also provided. An application to cancer mortality data from Catalonia is used for illustration. Conclusions Combining epidemiological with demographical factors is crucial for analysing incidence or mortality from a disease, especially if the population pyramids show substantial differences. The tool implemented may serve to promote and divulgate the use of this method to give advice for epidemiologic interpretation and decision making in public health.

Online and Offline Participation at the Local Level : A Quantitative Analysis of the Catalan Municipalities

This paper presents a first analysis on local electronic participatory experiences in Catalonia. The analysis is based on a database constructed and collected by the authors. The paper carries out an explanatory analysis of local initiatives in eparticipationand off line participation taking into account political variables (usually not considered in this kind of analysis) but also classical socio-economic variables that characterise municipalities. Hence, we add a quantitative analysis to the numerous case studies on local e-participation experiences. We have chosen Catalonia because is one of the European regions with more initiatives and one that has enjoyed considerable local governmental support to citizen participation initiatives since the 80s. The paper offers a characterisation of these experiences and a first explanatory analysis, considering: i) the institutional context in which these experiences are embedded, ii) the characteristics of the citizen participation processes and mechanisms on-line, and iii) a set of explanatory variables composed by the population size, thepolitical adscription of the mayor, the electoral abstention rate, age, income and level ofeducation in the municipality. The model that we present is explanatory for the municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants but it is not for the fewer than 20,000inhabitants. Actually, the number of participatory activities developed by these last municipalities is very low. Among all the variables, population size becomes the mostinfluential variable. Political variables such as political party of the mayor and the localabstention rate have a certain influence but that have to be controlled by population size.

Online and Offline Participation at the Local level: A Quantitative Analysis of the Catalan Municipalities

This article presents an analysis on local participatory experiences in Catalonia,both online and in-person. The analysis is based on a database set up by theauthors. The article carries out an explanatory analysis of local participatoryinitiatives (on- and offline) taking into account political variables (not usually con-sidered in this kind of analysis) and also classical socio-economic variables thatcharacterize municipalities. Hence, we add a quantitative analysis to the numerouscase studies on local e-participation experiences. We have chosen Catalonia becauseit is one of the European regions with more initiatives and a considerable localgovernment support for citizen participation initiatives since the 1980s. Thearticle offers a characterization of these experiences and an explanatory analysis,considering: (i) the institutional context in which these experiences are embedded,(ii) the citizen participation processes and mechanisms online and (iii) a set ofexplanatory variables composed of the population size and the province to whichthe municipality belongs, the political tendency of the mayor, the electoral absten-tion rate, age, income, level of education, broadband connection and users of theInternet in the municipality. The model that we present is explanatory for munici-palities with more than 20,000 inhabitants but it is not for fewer than 20,000inhabitants. Actually, the majority of these latter municipalities have not developedany participatory activities. Among all the variables, population size is the mostinfluential variable and affects the influence of other variables, such as the politicalparty of the mayor, the local abstention rate and the province.

Deu anys de seguiment demogràfic i genètic d’Stachys maritima a Catalunya (2001-2010). Implicacions per a un pla de recuperació

Ten years of demographic and genetic monitoring of Stachys maritima in Catalonia (2001-2010). Implications for a recovery plan.- Stachys maritima is a species typical of the coastal dunes, with a wide distribution within the Mediterranean Basin. In spite of this, the species shows a clear regression. In Catalonia, it has been observed an important reduction of its populations since early 20th century, where it has disappeared from several localities in which it was relatively common (Tarragonès, Barcelonès). Herein we present the results of the demographic monitoring of the species during the last 10 years (2001-2010) in the known localities in Catalonia. Besides corroborating the disappearance (northern Sant Martí d’Empúries), the re-discovering (Llobregat Delta beach) and the detection of new populations (inner dunes of the Montgrí), a large year-to-year fluctuation of the monitored populations is stated; the possible reasons are discussed. In addition, the present work also includes the results of the allozyme diversity analysis of the new detected populations as well as the rediscoveries of the period 2004-2008, which were not included in a former study of genetic diversity carried out in 2002-2003. It is necessary to emphasize that the contribution of the new populations to the genetic diversity of Stachys maritima is very small, which can be attributed to their limited population size and /or to founder effects. Despite that the species is included in the Annex 2 (“En Perill d’Extinció”) within the Catàleg de Flora Amenaçada de Catalunya (Catalogue of Endangered Flora of Catalonia), and some “soft” conservation measures have been applied at local level (signposting of the beach accesses, environmental education, etc.) coupled with other more significant measures (e.g. translocation of individuals discovered in an artificial sandbank), it would be necessary the coordinated action and the scientific support of any initiative of conservation that could be carried out. The general frame to initiate actions of conservation should be the recovery plan of Stachys maritima, whose draft and application is mandatory in accordance to the Catàleg

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Redistributive taxation, public expenditure, and size of governent

We introduce a model of redistributive income taxation and public expenditure. This joint treatment permits analyzing the interdependencies between the two policies: one cannot be chosen independently of the other. Empirical evidence reveals that partisan confrontation essentially falls on expenditure policies rather than on income taxation. We examine the case in which the expenditure policy (or the size of government) is chosen by majority voting and income taxation is consistently adjusted. This adjustment consists of designing the income tax schedule that, given the expenditure policy, achieves consensus among the population. The model determines the consensus in- come tax schedule, the composition of public expenditure and the size of government. The main results are that inequality is negatively related to the size of government and to the pro-rich bias in public expenditure, and positively or negatively related to the marginal income tax, depending on substitutability between government supplied and market goods. These implications are validated using OECD data.

Communication, Coordination, and Efficiency in Evolutionary One-population Models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuring efficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Does direct democracy reduce the size of government? New evidence from historical data, 1890-2000

Using historical data for all Swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000, we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending. The main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions. We find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending. However, we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government. Our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent. A 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent.

Communication, coordination and efficiency in evolutionary one-population models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuringefficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Size dependence of refractive index of Si nanoclusters embedded in SiO2

he complex refractive index of SiO2 layers containing Si nanoclusters (Si-nc) has been measured by spectroscopic ellipsometry in the range from 1.5 to 5.0 eV. It has been correlated with the amount of Si excess accurately measured by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and the nanocluster size determined by energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy. The Si-nc embedded in SiO2 have been produced by a fourfold Si+ ion implantation, providing uniform Si excess aimed at a reliable ellipsometric modeling. The complex refractive index of the Si-nc phase has been calculated by the application of the Bruggeman effective-medium approximation to the composite media. The characteristic resonances of the refractive index and extinction coefficient of bulk Si vanish out in Si-nc. In agreement with theoretical simulations, a significant reduction of the refractive index of Si-nc is observed, in comparison with bulk and amorphous silicon. The knowledge of the optical properties of these composite layers is crucial for the realization of Si-based waveguides and light-emitting devices.

Size effects in the magneto-optical response of Co nanoparticles

A study of the magneto-optical (MO) spectral response of Co nanoparticles embedded in MgO as a function of their size and concentration in the spectral range from 1.4 to 4.3 eV is presented. The nanoparticle layers were obtained by sputtering at different deposition temperatures. Transmission electron microscopy measurements show that the nanoparticles have a complex structure which consists of a crystalline core having a hexagonal close-packed structure and an amorphous crust. Using an effective-medium approximation we have obtained the MO constants of the Co nanoparticles. These MO constants are different from those of continuous Co layers and depend on the size of the crystalline core. We associate these changes with the size effect of the intraband contribution to the MO constants, related to a reduction of the relaxation time of the electrons into the nanoparticles.

Influence of average size and interface passivation on the spectral emission of Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2

The correlation between the structural (average size and density) and optoelectronic properties [band gap and photoluminescence (PL)] of Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2 is among the essential factors in understanding their emission mechanism. This correlation has been difficult to establish in the past due to the lack of reliable methods for measuring the size distribution of nanocrystals from electron microscopy, mainly because of the insufficient contrast between Si and SiO2. With this aim, we have recently developed a successful method for imaging Si nanocrystals in SiO2 matrices. This is done by using high-resolution electron microscopy in conjunction with conventional electron microscopy in dark field conditions. Then, by varying the time of annealing in a large time scale we have been able to track the nucleation, pure growth, and ripening stages of the nanocrystal population. The nucleation and pure growth stages are almost completed after a few minutes of annealing time at 1100°C in N2 and afterward the ensemble undergoes an asymptotic ripening process. In contrast, the PL intensity steadily increases and reaches saturation after 3-4 h of annealing at 1100°C. Forming gas postannealing considerably enhances the PL intensity but only for samples annealed previously in less time than that needed for PL saturation. The effects of forming gas are reversible and do not modify the spectral shape of the PL emission. The PL intensity shows at all times an inverse correlation with the amount of Pb paramagnetic centers at the Si-SiO2 nanocrystal-matrix interfaces, which have been measured by electron spin resonance. Consequently, the Pb centers or other centers associated with them are interfacial nonradiative channels for recombination and the emission yield largely depends on the interface passivation. We have correlated as well the average size of the nanocrystals with their optical band gap and PL emission energy. The band gap and emission energy shift to the blue as the nanocrystal size shrinks, in agreement with models based on quantum confinement. As a main result, we have found that the Stokes shift is independent of the average size of nanocrystals and has a constant value of 0.26±0.03 eV, which is almost twice the energy of the Si¿O vibration. This finding suggests that among the possible channels for radiative recombination, the dominant one for Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2 is a fundamental transition spatially located at the Si¿SiO2 interface with the assistance of a local Si-O vibration.

Double folding with a density-dependent effective interaction and it s analytical approximation

The real part of the optical potential for heavy ion elastic scattering is obtained by double folding of the nuclear densities with a density-dependent nucleon-nucleon effective interaction which was successful in describing the binding, size, and nucleon separation energies in spherical nuclei. A simple analytical form is found to differ from the resulting potential considerably less than 1% all through the important region. This analytical potential is used so that only few points of the folding need to be computed. With an imaginary part of the Woods-Saxon type, this potential predicts the elastic scattering angular distribution in very good agreement with experimental data, and little renormalization (unity in most cases) is needed.

Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs

We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.