How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Adipocitocinas, inflamación y resistencia insulínica en la insuficiencia renal crónica

: La insuficiencia renal crónica (IRC) condiciona disfunción del tejido adiposo y desequilibrio de las adipocitocinas relacionadas con la inflamación y metabolismo de la glicemia. Objetivo: describir la relación entre los marcadores de inflamación (IL6, TNFα, PCR, RIL2), las adipocitocinas (adiponectina, leptina) y las alteraciones de la glicemia en 336 pacientes con IRC en diferentes grupos de IRC (sin terapia renal sustitutiva, hemodiálisis, diálisis peritoneal). Conclusiones: Pacientes con IRC sin terapia renal sustitutiva, presentan menor estado inflamatorio y adipocitocinas que los pacientes en diálisis. Existe una relación inversa entre adiponectina, inflamación y filtrado glomerular. Las adipocitocinas son un factor de riesgo independiente de hiperglicemia

La transposició de la Directiva 2001/29/CE sobre drets d'autor i l'impacte sobre les biblioteques i centres similars : elements per al debat

A Espanya encara tenim pendent la transposició de la Directiva 2001/29/CE "relativa a la armonización de determinados aspectos de los derechos de autor y derechos afines a los derechos de autor en la sociedad de la información", la qual suposarà una modificació del marc legal que regula aquesta matèria. En aquest article s'analitzen els aspectes de la Directiva que més poden afectar el desenvolupament dels serveis que ofereixen les biblioteques i centres similars, prestant atenció als punts que poden ser més conflictius a la llum de les dues propostes que fins al moment s'han plantejat.

Economic and environmental effects of the CO2 taxation: an input-output analysis for Spain

CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation.

Behavioral aspects of investment fund's markets: are good managers lucky or skilled?

It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds

Debt enforcement and relational contracting

We examine how third-party debt enforcement affects the emergence and performance ofrelational contracts in credit markets. We implement an experiment with finitely repeatedcredit relationships in which borrowers can default. In the weak enforcement treatmentdefaulting borrowers can keep their funds invested. In the strong enforcement treatmentdefaulting borrowers have to liquidate their investment. Under weak enforcement fewerrelationships emerge in which loans are extended and repaid. When such relationships doemerge they exhibit a lower credit volume than under strong enforcement. These findingssuggest that relational contracting in credit markets requires a minimum standard of thirdpartydebt enforcement.

Stockholder conflicts and dividends

Conflicts of interest between majority and minority stockholders affect a large proportion of firms in any economy, but has received little attention in the empirical literature. We examine the link between the potential for such conflicts and the firm's payout policy on a large sample of Norwegian private firms with controlling stockholders and detailed ownership data. Our evidence shows that the stronger the potential conflict between the stockholders, the higher the proportion of earnings paid out as dividends. This tendency to reduce stockholder conflicts by dividend payout is more pronounced when the minority is diffuse and when a family's majority block is held by a single family member. We also find evidence that a minority-friendly payout policy is associated with higher future minority investment in the firm. These results are consistent with the notion that potential agency costs of ownership are mitigated by dividend policy when the majority stockholder benefits from not exploiting the minority.

An Analysis of black-box optimization problems in reinsurance: evolutionary-based approaches

Black-box optimization problems (BBOP) are de ned as those optimization problems in which the objective function does not have an algebraic expression, but it is the output of a system (usually a computer program). This paper is focussed on BBOPs that arise in the eld of insurance, and more speci cally in reinsurance problems. In this area, the complexity of the models and assumptions considered to de ne the reinsurance rules and conditions produces hard black-box optimization problems, that must be solved in order to obtain the optimal output of the reinsurance. The application of traditional optimization approaches is not possible in BBOP, so new computational paradigms must be applied to solve these problems. In this paper we show the performance of two evolutionary-based techniques (Evolutionary Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization). We provide an analysis in three BBOP in reinsurance, where the evolutionary-based approaches exhibit an excellent behaviour, nding the optimal solution within a fraction of the computational cost used by inspection or enumeration methods.

How does ownership structure invfluence bank risk? Analyzing the role of managerial incentives

This paper analyzes how ownership concentration and managerial incentives influences bank risk for a large sample of US banks over the period 1997-2007. Using 2SLS simultaneous equations models, we show that ownership concentration has a positive total effect on bank risk. This is the result of a positive direct effect, which reflects monitoring and opportunistic behavior, and a negative indirect effect, which works through the design of managerial incentive contracts and reflects shareholder preferences toward risk. Large shareholders reduce bank risk by reducing the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock volatility (Vega) and by increasing the CEO pay-performance sensitivity (Delta). In addition, we show that the direct and indirect effect of ownership concentration on bank risk depends on the type of the largest shareholder (a family, a bank, a corporation or an institutional investor), as well as, on the total shareholding held by each type as a group. Our results suggest that the positive relation between ownership concentration and risk is not the result of preferences towards more risk. Rather, they point at opportunistic behavior of large shareholders.

Paga o cobra : estudi de la morositat en el món empresarial

El tema del nostre treball és la morositat, centrant‐nos en el estudi d’un cas real en la relació entre dues empreses, un client i un proveïdor, en el què el client va presentar signes de morositat, encara que en cap moment va deixar de pagar cap factura al client. En primer lloc, volem analitzar dades sobre la morositat, per saber com és desenvolupa un cas real d’una empresa amb problemes de morositat i quines son les conseqüències de la morositat, centrant‐nos en dues possibles vies: la via judicial, amb una denúncia a l’Administració Concursal, i la que passa per acudir a certes empreses que, en el límit de la llei, fan servir mètodes persuasius, cal dir que Aquest és un dels objectius fonamentals del treball, és a dir, intentar trobar algunes de les possibles solucions a la morositat, així com intentar detectar aquesta i veure si es pot identificar un morós tipus, cosa que trobaríem d’extrema importància.D’altra banda, com es lògic, volem aplicar els coneixements adquirits en aquests últims anys pel que fa al àmbit de la economia, tant en l’anàlisi de les dades com en els altres apartats del treball.

El Consum i les empreses de refinançament

El principal objectiu del nostre treball és l’estudi de les empreses de refinançament espanyoles iamericanes mitjançant l’anàlisi de l’evolució de l’endeutament familiar al nostre país.Posteriorment intentarem establir paral·lelismes entre la situació a Espanya i als Estats Units, onmoltes d’aquestes societats han acabat fent fallida. L’objectiu de la comparació és veure si aquestacrisis arribarà al nostre país a mesura que creixin els impagats.Finalment, establirem un resum de les idees més importants per tal de que el lector pugui obteniruna idea ràpida amb una perspectiva el màxim de realista possible i capaç d’esclarir-nos les idees.

Earnings management and audit adjustments: An empirical study of IBEX 35 constituents

Doubts about the reliability of a company's qualitative financial disclosure increase market participant expectations from the auditor's report. The auditing process is supposed to serve as a monitoring device that reduces management incentives to manipulate reported earnings. Empirical research confirms that it could be an efficient device under some circumstancesand recognizes that our estimates of the informativeness of audit reports are unavoidably biased (e.g., because of a client's anticipation of the auditing process). This empirical study supports the significant role of auditors in the financial market, in particular in the prevention of earnings management practice. We focus on earnings misstatements, which auditors correct with anadjustment, using a sample of past and current constituents of the benchmark market index in Spain, IBEX 35, and manually collected audit adjustments reported over the 1997-2004 period (42 companies, 336 annual reports, 75 earnings misstatements). Our findings confirm that companies more often overstate than understate their earnings. An investor may foresee earningsmisreporting, as manipulators have a similar profile (e.g., more leveraged and with lower sales). However, he may receive valuable information from the audit adjustment on the size of earnings misstatement, which can be significantly large (i.e., material in almost all cases). We suggest that the magnitude of an audit adjustment depends, other things constant, on annual revenues and free cash levels. We also examine how the audit adjustment relates to the observed market price, trading volume and stock returns. Our findings are that earnings manipulators have a lower price and larger trading volume compared to their rivals. Their returns are positively associated with the magnitude of earnings misreporting, which is not consistent with the possible pricing of audit information.

El impacto de los servicios sanitarios sobre la salud

This paper reviews what has increased medical-care spending bought in terms of health benefitswith longitudinal data from the U.S and, more limited, from Spain. Health services contributionto health has been positive in average, especially during the last 50 years for the U.S andthe last 30 years for Spain. This contribution differs among countries and is much greater forsome diseases (cardiovascular) than for others (cancer). Benefits from health care interventionscan be valued on basis on the social willin gness to pay, observed or declared on the process ofestablishing health policy priorities. 30.000 euros per Quality Adjusted Life Year could providean efficiency threshold for financing publicly health services in Spain: Consensus andlegitimacy of the political process of establishing health priorities becomes, however, moreimportant than any approximate number. Attention is paid finally to bridging the gap betweenefficacy (the possibilities given by innovation and resources devoted to health care) andeffectiveness (the distance to the frontier) of the everyday working of a health system with itsinappropriate care and limited application of the existing knowledge.

Hisenda pública europea: on som i on podríem arribar?

En un panorama econòmic mundial on les grans potències emergents creixen amb força i, com alguns informes recents de la OCDE apunten, la Xina es trobarà durant els propers anys en situació de sobrepassar els EEUU com a primera potència econòmica. En aquest context la Unió Europea apareix en una posició afeblida i els estats membres difícilment poden adoptar individualment un paper rellevant a nivell mundial. També comencen a sentir-se veus demanant una major integració al sí de la UE. Una de les opcions per assolir-la seria la creació d’una Hisenda Pública Europea. L’objecte d’estudi d’aquest treball serà la Unió Europea; més concretament la possibilitat d’assolir una Hisenda Pública Europea. Es pretén respondre a dues preguntes: Seria possible la creació d’una Hisenda Pública Europea? Com es podria estructurar? Per tal de poder respondre sòlidament aquestes qüestions s’analitzarà què s’ha fet fins ara en l’àmbit de la unió fiscal tant a la UE com a diversos països; quins passos es podrien donar per avançar cap a una Hisenda Pública de la Unió; i a quin model es podria arribar. També es contrastarà amb el marc teòric proposat, així com amb l’experiència prèvia de les diferents fases d’Integració Europea dutes a terme fins ara.