94 resultados para 010405 Statistical Theory


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A new aggregation method for decision making is presented by using induced aggregation operators and the index of maximum and minimum level. Its main advantage is that it can assess complex reordering processes in the aggregation that represent complex attitudinal characters of the decision maker such as psychological or personal factors. A wide range of properties and particular cases of this new approach are studied. A further generalization by using hybrid averages and immediate weights is also presented. The key issue in this approach against the previous model is that we can use the weighted average and the ordered weighted average in the same formulation. Thus, we are able to consider the subjective attitude and the degree of optimism of the decision maker in the decision process. The paper ends with an application in a decision making problem based on the use of the assignment theory.

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A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

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We report on the study of nonequilibrium ordering in the reaction-diffusion lattice gas. It is a kinetic model that relaxes towards steady states under the simultaneous competition of a thermally activated creation-annihilation $(reaction$) process at temperature T, and a diffusion process driven by a heat bath at temperature T?T. The phase diagram as one varies T and T, the system dimension d, the relative priori probabilities for the two processes, and their dynamical rates is investigated. We compare mean-field theory, new Monte Carlo data, and known exact results for some limiting cases. In particular, no evidence of Landau critical behavior is found numerically when d=2 for Metropolis rates but Onsager critical points and a variety of first-order phase transitions.

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A general criterion for the design of adaptive systemsin digital communications called the statistical reference criterionis proposed. The criterion is based on imposition of the probabilitydensity function of the signal of interest at the outputof the adaptive system, with its application to the scenario ofhighly powerful interferers being the main focus of this paper.The knowledge of the pdf of the wanted signal is used as adiscriminator between signals so that interferers with differingdistributions are rejected by the algorithm. Its performance isstudied over a range of scenarios. Equations for gradient-basedcoefficient updates are derived, and the relationship with otherexisting algorithms like the minimum variance and the Wienercriterion are examined.

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A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

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In his version of the theory of multicomponent systems, Friedman used the analogy which exists between the virial expansion for the osmotic pressure obtained from the McMillan-Mayer (MM) theory of solutions in the grand canonical ensemble and the virial expansion for the pressure of a real gas. For the calculation of the thermodynamic properties of the solution, Friedman proposed a definition for the"excess free energy" that is a reminder of the ancient idea for the"osmotic work". However, the precise meaning to be attached to his free energy is, within other reasons, not well defined because in osmotic equilibrium the solution is not a closed system and for a given process the total amount of solvent in the solution varies. In this paper, an analysis based on thermodynamics is presented in order to obtain the exact and precise definition for Friedman"s excess free energy and its use in the comparison with the experimental data.

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A theory of network-entrepreneurs or "spin-off system" is presented in this paper for the creation of firms based on the community’s social governance. It is argued that firm’s capacity for accumulation depends on the presence of employees belonging to the same social/ethnic group with expectations of "inheriting" the firm and becoming entrepreneurs once they have been selected for their merits and loyalty towards their patrons. Such accumulation is possible because of the credibility of the patrons’ promises of supporting newcomers due to high social cohesion and specific social norms prevailing in the community. This theory is exemplified through the case of the Barcelonnettes, a group of immigrants from the Alps in the South of France (Provence) who came to Mexico in the XIX Century.

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It is known that, in a locally presentable category, localization exists with respect to every set of morphisms, while the statement that localization with respect to every (possibly proper) class of morphisms exists in locally presentable categories is equivalent to a large-cardinal axiom from set theory. One proves similarly, on one hand, that homotopy localization exists with respect to sets of maps in every cofibrantly generated, left proper, simplicial model category M whose underlying category is locally presentable. On the other hand, as we show in this article, the existence of localization with respect to possibly proper classes of maps in a model category M satisfying the above assumptions is implied by a large-cardinal axiom called Vopënka's principle, although we do not know if the reverse implication holds. We also show that, under the same assumptions on M, every endofunctor of M that is idempotent up to homotopy is equivalent to localization with respect to some class S of maps, and if Vopënka's principle holds then S can be chosen to be a set. There are examples showing that the latter need not be true if M is not cofibrantly generated. The above assumptions on M are satisfied by simplicial sets and symmetric spectra over simplicial sets, among many other model categories.

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Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

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Ma (1996) studied the random order mechanism, a matching mechanism suggested by Roth and Vande Vate (1990) for marriage markets. By means of an example he showed that the random order mechanism does not always reach all stable matchings. Although Ma's (1996) result is true, we show that the probability distribution he presented - and therefore the proof of his Claim 2 - is not correct. The mistake in the calculations by Ma (1996) is due to the fact that even though the example looks very symmetric, some of the calculations are not as ''symmetric.''

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This paper surveys the recent literature on convergence across countries and regions. I discuss the main convergence and divergence mechanisms identified in the literature and develop a simple model that illustrates their implications for income dynamics. I then review the existing empirical evidence and discuss its theoretical implications. Early optimism concerning the ability of a human capital-augmented neoclassical model to explain productivity differences across economies has been questioned on the basis of more recent contributions that make use of panel data techniques and obtain theoretically implausible results. Some recent research in this area tries to reconcile these findings with sensible theoretical models by exploring the role of alternative convergence mechanisms and the possible shortcomings of panel data techniques for convergence analysis.

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This paper develops a theory of the joint allocation of formal control and cash-flow rights in venture capital deals. We argue that when the need for investor support calls for very high-powered outside claims, entrepreneurs should optimally retain formal control in order to avoid excessive interference. Hence, we predict that risky claims should be be negatively correlated to control rights, both along the life of a start-up and across deals. This challenges the idea that risky claims should a ways be associated to more formal control, and is in line with contractual terms increasingly used in venture capital, in corporate venturing and in partnership deals between biotech start-ups and large drug companies. The paper provides a theoretical explanation to some puzzling evidence documented in Gompers (1997) and Kaplan and Stromberg (2000), namely the inclusion in venture capital contracts of contingencies that trigger both a reduction in VC control and the conversion! of her preferred stocks into common stocks.