Crecimiento económico en Islas Canarias

Un breve análisis de la economía Canaria y su crecimiento en esta última década.Entorno: El archipiélago canario es un territorio muy vinculado a los acontecimientos exteriores. Estudios económicos encuentran evidencia que el ciclo económico canario mantiene estrechos lazos con la economía internacional incluso más significativos que los que mantiene con el entorno europeo o con el nacional. Por esta razón hemos tomado muy en cuenta lo que acontece en las economías internacionales.Nos hemos centrado en el análisis de el crecimiento sostenido en la última década hasta llegar al comienzo de la desaceleración en el año 2007, el año 2007 se cerró con un crecimiento mundial inferior en una décima al crecimiento registrado en 2006, esta elevada tasa de crecimiento esconde, una clara desaceleración en los últimos meses del año, que como posibles causas tomaremos en cuenta las turbulencias financieras derivadas de la crisis hipotecaria iniciada en los meses de verano en los Estados Unidos, en combinación con el aumento en los precios energéticos y alimenticios, hanincrementado el grado de incertidumbre, orientando a la baja las previsiones de crecimiento de los años posteriores.

Democratització de l'agricultura ecològica : una proposta d'aproximació al ciutadà

L’agricultura va néixer en el moment en què l’home va passar de recol·lectar aliments acultivar-los, i la durada d’una collita de cereals el va arrelar a un entorn fix, és a dir, el va fer sedentari. Així, es va produir una primera revolució demogràfica; aliments estables i aconseguits regularment, poblats assentats i més o menys segurs. Al principi les terres verges donaven excel·lents produccions, les quals anaven minvant a mesura que es repetien les sembres sense alternances i que el sòl s’esgotava. En molts casos, acabaven canviant de lloc o iniciant la tala d’arbres per reconquistar nous sòls cultivables. No essent suficient això, l’ésser humà va iniciar les grans migracions i l’expansió al llarg del món,retrobant noves terres no castigades.Observant els inicis de l’activitat agrícola, el present treball es realitza amb la intenció d’analitzar l’agricultura ecològica no de forma merament comercial, sinó també aprofundint en la preocupació pel manteniment del medi rural. Així, l’agricultura ecològica es configura com una filosofia de vida per a molts productors i consumidors, i està en auge en la societat actual, sobretot entre la creixent població amb valors postmaterialistes.Aquest tipus d’agricultura utilitza com a model la pròpia natura i la cultura i sapiència populars, tractant de trobar les respostes que ambdues aporten i aplicar aquesta informació mitjançant els coneixements tècnics i científics actuals. Contempla el seguiment de determinats principis i línies d’actuació que garanteixin la protecció del medi ambient, la salut del consumidor i la qualitat del producte. En aquest sentit, doncs, esjustifica la creixent demanda dels consumidors de productes ecològics, donada lapreocupació per la qualitat dels aliments i la tan anomenada seguretat alimentària.Per últim, cal destacar la rellevància social, política i mediàtica que desperten els temes relacionats amb l’ecologia i la preservació del medi ambient, essent un dels elements de debat essencials de la societat del segle XXI. Les raons esmentades són algunes de les principals que han portat a la realització del present treball.Resulta important destacar, abans de procedir, els objectius que es volen assolir al llarg del present estudi. Així, en primer lloc, es determinarà en què consisteix l’activitat que es vol analitzar (en aquest cas l’agricultura ecològica) i saber en quina situació es troba a Catalunya. Seguidament, cal esbrinar quin és el perfil del consumidor d’aquest producte i quines en són les seves motivacions de consum. Un altre objectiu bàsic consisteix en saberquines són les formes de comercialització d’aquest tipus de productes, per a poder realitzar finalment una proposta innovadora en la qual pagesos i consumidors en surtin beneficiats.

Creación de una marca

¿Está el sector del calzado español lo suficientemente consolidado como para nodejar entrar a nuevas marcas? ¿Es posible la creación de una nueva organización endicho sector y que ésta resulte rentable a corto/medio plazo? La existencia en laactualidad de marcas reconocidas con un determinado prestigio y la entrada en el sector,en los últimos años, de productos más baratos procedentes de los mercados asiáticospueden poner en peligro la iniciativa a crear nuevas empresas orientadas a este sector.Con la realización del trabajo que se expone a continuación pretendemosresponder a estas cuestiones creando nuestra propia marca. A partir del estudio previode una empresa de la competencia como es CAMPER pretendemos ser capaces deescoger las mejores estrategias que nos lleven al éxito en el sector en el que sedesarrolla nuestra actividad. Poseer información directa de dicha empresa nos daba laposibilidad de analizar mejor el mercado en el que desarrollaríamos nuestra actividad yademás nos proporcionaría un ejemplo a seguir a la hora de elegir las estrategias que senos presentaban.Así pues, podemos dividir nuestro trabajo en dos partes fundamentales: unaprimera parte en la que se analiza de forma exhaustiva el caso CAMPER (susestrategias, productos que ofrece, políticas adoptadas, su situación en la actualidad,etc.). Ésta nos debe aportar las claves y los conocimientos básicos para poder realizarnuestro proyecto empresarial. A partir de aquí, iniciamos nuestro plan de empresa:estudiamos la viabilidad de la idea y definimos el plan estratégico y el plan demarqueting. El trabajo concluye con el estudio de la viabilidad económica del proyectollevado a cabo, con la relación de ingresos y costes para los tres primeros años de vidade la empresa y el cálculo del punto muerto para cada uno de ellos. De esta forma, nosintroducimos en un caso real de contabilidad interna.La idea de crear un nuevo negocio es un tema que nos llama la atención comoestudiantes de ADE/ECO y este ha sido uno de los motivos básicos para la elección deltema. Además, vemos como un reto poder introducirnos en un mercado tan masificadocomo es el sector del calzado español en la actualidad. Cabe decir, que el objetivoinicial del trabajo era estudiar las estrategias de crecimiento de CAMPER; pero una veziniciado el trabajo nos dimos cuenta de la insuficiencia de información para realizar untrabajo de este tipo y surgió la idea de crear nuestra propia marca siguiendo estrategiasparecidas a las adoptadas por CAMPER.

Disseny i implementació de la base de dades d'un sistema de gestió d'informació de jugadors de bàsquet

El projecte és el desenvolupament d'una base de dades de jugadors de bàsquet.

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "government economizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory". The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Compositions in life science data

The aim of this talk is to convince the reader that there are a lot of interesting statisticalproblems in presentday life science data analysis which seem ultimately connected withcompositional statistics.Key words: SAGE, cDNA microarrays, (1D-)NMR, virus quasispecies

Experimental design on the simplex

Optimum experimental designs depend on the design criterion, the model andthe design region. The talk will consider the design of experiments for regressionmodels in which there is a single response with the explanatory variables lying ina simplex. One example is experiments on various compositions of glass such asthose considered by Martin, Bursnall, and Stillman (2001).Because of the highly symmetric nature of the simplex, the class of models thatare of interest, typically Scheff´e polynomials (Scheff´e 1958) are rather differentfrom those of standard regression analysis. The optimum designs are also ratherdifferent, inheriting a high degree of symmetry from the models.In the talk I will hope to discuss a variety of modes for such experiments. ThenI will discuss constrained mixture experiments, when not all the simplex is availablefor experimentation. Other important aspects include mixture experimentswith extra non-mixture factors and the blocking of mixture experiments.Much of the material is in Chapter 16 of Atkinson, Donev, and Tobias (2007).If time and my research allows, I would hope to finish with a few comments ondesign when the responses, rather than the explanatory variables, lie in a simplex.ReferencesAtkinson, A. C., A. N. Donev, and R. D. Tobias (2007). Optimum ExperimentalDesigns, with SAS. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Martin, R. J., M. C. Bursnall, and E. C. Stillman (2001). Further results onoptimal and efficient designs for constrained mixture experiments. In A. C.Atkinson, B. Bogacka, and A. Zhigljavsky (Eds.), Optimal Design 2000,pp. 225–239. Dordrecht: Kluwer.Scheff´e, H. (1958). Experiments with mixtures. Journal of the Royal StatisticalSociety, Ser. B 20, 344–360.1

Prevalença de factors de risc cardiovascular i qualitat de vida en pacients amb trastorn mental sever

L’objectiu és descriure els factors de RCV i variables relacionades amb la qualitat de vida de pacients amb TMS. Estudi transversal on s’analitzen variables clíniques, antropomètriques, anàlitiques i d’estils de vida en 212 pacients. Distribució dels factors de RCV: 61,6% tabaquisme, 84,4% perímetre de cintura alterat, 67,5% obesitat, 15% hipercolesterolèmia, 41,1% hipertrigliceridèmia i 27,8% HTA. La qualitat de vida percebuda és pitjor en la majoria de dimensions respecte a població general. Calen estudis per a determinar intervencions efectives per a millorar el control metabòlic i la qualitat de vida en aquests pacients.

A sequential model for older workers’ labor transitions after a health shock

In this work we study older workers (50 64) labor force transitions after a health/disability shock. We find that the probability of keeping working decreases with both age and severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity in the 50 64 age range and none in the 30 49 age range. Regarding demographics we find that being female and married reduce the probability of keeping work. On the contrary, being main breadwinner, education and skill levels increase it. Interestingly, the effect of some demographics changes its sign when we look at transitions from inactivity to work. This is the case of being married or having a working spouse. Undoubtedly, leisure complementarities should play a role in the latter case. Since the data we use contains a very detailed information on disabilities, we are able to evaluate the marginal effect of each type of disability either in the probability of keeping working or in returning back to work. Some of these results may have strong policy implications.

The effects of employment uncertainty and wealth shocks on the labor supply and claiming behavior of older American workers

Unemployment rates in developed countries have recently reached levels not seenin a generation, and workers of all ages are facing increasing probabilities of losingtheir jobs and considerable losses in accumulated assets. These events likely increasethe reliance that most older workers will have on public social insurance programs,exactly at a time that public finances are suffering from a large drop in contributions.Our paper explicitly accounts for employment uncertainty and unexpectedwealth shocks, something that has been relatively overlooked in the literature, butthat has grown in importance in recent years. Using administrative and householdlevel data we empirically characterize a life-cycle model of retirement and claimingdecisions in terms of the employment, wage, health, and mortality uncertainty facedby individuals. Our benchmark model explains with great accuracy the strikinglyhigh proportion of individuals who claim benefits exactly at the Early RetirementAge, while still explaining the increased claiming hazard at the Normal RetirementAge. We also discuss some policy experiments and their interplay with employmentuncertainty. Additionally, we analyze the effects of negative wealth shocks on thelabor supply and claiming decisions of older Americans. Our results can explainwhy early claiming has remained very high in the last years even as the early retirementpenalties have increased substantially compared with previous periods, andwhy labor force participation has remained quite high for older workers even in themidst of the worse employment crisis in decades.

Do Spanish informal caregivers come to the rescue of dependent people with formal care unmet needs?

This paper analyses the effect of unmet formal care needs on informal caregiving hours in Spain using the two wavesof the Informal Support Survey (1994, 2004). Testing for double sample selection from formal care receipt and theemergence of unmet needs provides evidence that the omission of either variable would causes underestimation of thenumber of informal caregiving hours. After controlling for these two factors the number of hours of care increaseswith both the degree of dependency and unmet needs. More importantly, in the presence of unmet needs, the numberof informal caregiving hours increases when some formal care is received. This result refutes the substitution modeland supports complementarity or task specificity between both types of care. For a given combination of formal careand unmet needs, informal caregiving hours increased between 1994 and 2004. Finally, in the model for 2004, theselection term associated with the unmet needs equation is larger than that of the formal care equation, suggestingthat using the number of formal care recipients as a quality indicator may be confounding, if we do not complete thisinformation with other quality indicators.

The wage effect of an indexation clause: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

An endogenous switching model of ex-ante wage changes under indexed and non-indexed settlements is estimated for the Spanish manufacturing sector using collective bargaining firm data for the 1984-1991 period. The likelihood of indexing the settlement is higher for nationwide unions than for other union groups within the works council and increases with the expected level of inflation. For wage change equations, a common structure for indexed and non-indexed settlements is strongly rejected, showing a source of nominal rigidity. For indexed contracts, the expected ex-ante total inflation coverage is nearly complete. It is also shown that workers pay a significant ex-ante wage change premium (differential) to obtain a cost of living allowance clause. However, the realised contingent compensation exceeds such a premium for all industries. Finally, important spillover effects in wage setting and the decision to index the settlement have been detected.

Evaluating Spanish pension expenditure under alternativa reform scenario

In this paper we evaluate the quantitative impact that a number ofalternative reform scenarios may have on the total expenditure for publicpensions in Spain. Our quantitative findings can be summarized in twosentences. For all the reforms considered, the financial impact of themechanical effect (change in benefits) is order of magnitudes larger thanthe behavioral impact or change in behavior. For the two Spanish reforms,we find once again that their effect on the outstanding liability of theSpanish Social Security System is essentially negligible: neither themechanical nor the behavioral effects amount to much for the 1997 reform,and amount to very little for the 2002 amendment.