Fairness under uncertainty with indivisibilities

I analyze an economy with uncertainty in which a set of indivisible objects and a certain amount of money is to be distributed among agents. The set of intertemporally fair social choice functions based on envy-freeness and Pareto efficiency is characterized. I give a necessary and sufficient condition for its non-emptiness and propose a mechanism that implements the set of intertemporally fair allocations in Bayes-Nash equilibrium. Implementation at the ex ante stage is considered, too. I also generalize the existence result obtained with envy-freeness using a broader fairness concept, introducing the aspiration function.

Bidding at sequential first-price auctions with(out) supply uncertainty: a laboratory analysis

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

Price competition under cost uncertainty: A laboratory analysis

We study the relation between the number of firms and price-cost margins under price competition with uncertainty about competitors' costs. We present results of an experiment in which two, three and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. In line with the theoretical prediction, market prices decrease with the number of firms, but on average stay above marginal costs. Pricing is less aggressive in duopolies than in triopolies and tetrapolies. However, independently from the number of firms, pricing is more aggressive than in the theoretical equilibrium. Both the absolute and the relative surpluses increase with the number of firms. Total surplus is close to the equilibrium level, since enhanced consumer surplus through lower prices is counteracted by occasional displacements of the most efficient firm in production.

Thickening of phase change materials (PCM) to avoid segregation

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a Çukurova University, Turquia, al juliol del 2006. L’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica ha atret interès en aplicacions tèrmiques com l’aigua calenta, la calefacció i l’aire condicionat. Aquests sistemes són útils per corregir la no coincidència entre la oferta i la demanda d’energia. Principalment hi ha dos tipus de sistemes d’emmagatzematge d’energia tèrmica, emmagatzematge amb calor sensible i amb calor latent. L’emmagatzematge amb calor latent és particularment atractiu degut a la seva habilitat de donar una densitat d’emmagatzematge d’energia més alt i la seva característica d’emmagatzemar calor a una temperatura constant corresponent a la temperatura de transició de fase de la substància emmagatzemadora de calor. Les salts hidratades orgàniques tenen certes avantatges com a materials d’emmagatzematge de calor latent sobre els materials orgànics. En canvi, quan les salts hidratades s’utilitzen com a materials de canvi de fase (PCM) apareixen alguns problemes en les aplicacions d’emmagatzematge de calor latent. Aquests són el subrefredament de les salts hidratades quan es congelen degut a les seves dèbils propietats de nucleació, i la separació de fase que hi apareix degut a una fusió incongruent. En aquest estudi, s’estabilitza sal de Glauber (Na2SO4.10H2O) amb diferents concentracions de poliacrilamida i gelatina per prevenir la fusió incongruent. Per prevenir el subrefredament s’utilitza un agent nucleant amb una estructura cristal•lina semblant a la de la sal de Glauber. La capacitat d’emmagatzematge de calor de les mostres de PCM estabilitzades amb diferents concentracions de gels polimèrics es determinen amb DCS i amb el mètode T-history.

Solid-phase synthesis and NMR studies of modified oligonucleotides forming triplex helix and of oligonucleopeptides mimicking the topoisomerase I-DNA covalent complex

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Institut de Biologia Molecular de Barcelona of the CSIC –state agency – from april until september 2007. Topoisomerase I is an essential nuclear enzyme that modulates the topological status of DNA, facilitating DNA helix unwinding during replication and transcription. We have prepared the oligonucleotide-peptide conjugate Ac-NLeu-Asn-Tyr(p-3’TTCAGAAGC5’)-LeuC-CONH-(CH2)6-OH as model compound for NMR studies of the Topoisomerase I- DNA complex. Special attention was made on the synthetic aspects for the preparation of this challenging compound especially solid supports and protecting groups. The desired peptide was obtained although we did not achieve the amount of the conjugate needed for NMR studies. Most probably the low yield is due to the intrinsic sensitive to hydrolysis of the phosphate bond between oligonucleotide and tyrosine. We have started the synthesis and the structural characterization of oligonucleotides carrying intercalating compounds. At the present state we have obtained model duplex and quadruplex sequences modified with acridine and NMR studies are underway. In addition to this project we have successfully resolved the structure of a fusion peptide derived from hepatitis C virus envelope synthesized by the group of Dr. Haro and we have synthesized and started the characterization of a modified G-quadruplex.

A computational and geometric approach to phase resetting curves and surfaces

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

The effects of uncertainty about countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was established to govern discretionary fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. This article studies the effects created when there is uncertainty about the members’ commitment to respecting the established deficit limits in the SGP. We will show that, even if countries respect the SGP deficit ceiling, the presence of uncertainty about their compliance will bring about higher volatility in key economic variables, which could, in turn, affect unemployment and growth negatively. This finding shows that it is important to reduce uncertainty about the members’ commitment towards the SGP. Keywords: fiscal policy rules, monetary union, Stability and Growth Pact, uncertainty, commitment. JEL No.: E63, F55, H62, H87

Contact melting of a three-dimensional phase change material on a flat substrate

In this paper a model is developed to describe the three dimensional contact melting process of a cuboid on a heated surface. The mathematical description involves two heat equations (one in the solid and one in the melt), the Navier-Stokes equations for the flow in the melt, a Stefan condition at the phase change interface and a force balance between the weight of the solid and the countering pressure in the melt. In the solid an optimised heat balance integral method is used to approximate the temperature. In the liquid the small aspect ratio allows the Navier-Stokes and heat equations to be simplified considerably so that the liquid pressure may be determined using an igenfunction expansion and finally the problem is reduced to solving three first order ordinary differential equations. Results are presented showing the evolution of the melting process. Further reductions to the system are made to provide simple guidelines concerning the process. Comparison of the solutions with experimental data on the melting of n-octadecane shows excellent agreement.

Effect of vaccination against gonadotrophin-releasing hormone, using Improvac®, on growth performance, body composition, behaviour and acute phase proteins

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vaccination against GnRH on performance traits, pig behaviour and acute phase proteins. A total of 120 pigs (36 non-castrated males, NCM; 36 males to be vaccinated, IM; 24 castratedmales, CM; and 24 females, FE)were controlled in groups of 12 in pens with feeding stations allowing the recording of individual feed intake. The two vaccinations (Improvac®) were applied at a mean age of 77 and 146 days. All pigswere individually weighed every 3 weeks from the mean ages of 74 to 176 days and backfat thickness (BT) and loinmuscle depth (LD) were also recorded ultrasonically. Twelve group-housed pigs for each treatment were video recorded during 2 consecutive days at weeks 9, 11, 20, 21, 23 and 25 of age to score the number of inactive or active pigs in each treatment group by scan sampling. Aggressive behaviour by the feeder and away from the feeder, and mounting behaviour was also scored by focal sampling. Blood samples from 12 NCM, 12 CM and 12 IM were taken to determine the concentration of circulating acute phase protein Pig-MAP atweeks 1, 2, 4, 11, 13, 21 and 25 of age. After slaughter, the number of skin lesions on the left half carcasswas scored. IMpresented overall a higher growth rate and daily feed intake compared to NCM (Pb0.05),whereas their feed conversion ratios did not differ significantly. In comparison with CM, IM presented a better feed conversion ratio (Pb0.05), since their overall dailyweight gaindid not differ significantly, butIM ate less. Final leanmeat percentage of IM and CM was lower compared to that of NCM (Pb0.05). Activity, mounting and aggressive behaviour of NCM was higher than in IM, CM and FE after the second vaccination. Pig-MAP concentrationswere significantly elevated just after surgical castrationand after bothadministrations of the vaccine (Pb0.05), but concentrations subsequently decreased throughout time. Skin lesions of NCM were significantly higher compared to that of IM and FE (Pb0.05). The effects of vaccination were especially remarkable after the second dose, when the higher feed intake and lower activity of IM compared to NCMmight result in higher final body weight and more fat. Results from this study indicate that some welfare aspects such as a reduced aggression and mounting behaviour may be improved by vaccination against GnRH, together with productive benefits like adequate feed conversion ratio and daily weight gain.

Public Monitoring with Uncertainty in the Time Repetitions

This paper study repeated games where the time repetitions of the stage game are not known or controlled by the players. We call this feature random monitoring. Kawamori's (2004) shows that perfect random monitoring is always better than the canonical case. Surprisingly, when the monitoring is public, the result is less clear-cut and does not generalize in a straightforward way. Unless the public signals are sufficiently informative about player's actions and/or players are patient enough. In addition to a discount effect, that tends to consistently favor the provision of incentives, we found an information effect, associated with the time uncertainty on the distribution of public signals. Whether payoff improvements are or not possible, depends crucially on the direction and strength of these effects. JEL: C73, D82, D86. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Random Public Monitoring, Moral Hazard, Stochastic Processes.

Profitability, uncertainty and multi-product firm product proliferation: The Spanish car industry

This article studies how product introduction decisions relate to profitability and uncertainty in the context of multi-product firms and product differentiation. These two features, common to many modern industries, have not received much attention in the literature as compared to the classical problem of firm entry, even if the determinants of firm and product entry are quite different. The theoretical predictions about the sign of the impact of uncertainty on product entry are not conclusive. Therefore, an econometric model relating firms’ product introduction decisions with profitability and profit uncertainty is proposed. Firm’s estimated profits are obtained from a structural model of product demand and supply, and uncertainty is proxied by profits’ variance. The empirical analysis is carried out using data on the Spanish car industry for the period 1990-2000. The results show a positive relationship between product introduction and profitability, and a negative one with respect to profit variability. Interestingly, the degree of uncertainty appears to be a driving force of entry stronger than profitability, suggesting that the product proliferation process in the Spanish car market may have been mainly a consequence of lower uncertainty rather than the result of having a more profitable market. Keywords: Product introduction, entry, uncertainty, multiproduct firms, automobile JEL codes: L11, L13