Trials, tricks and transparency: how disclosure rules affect clinical knowledge

Scandals of selective reporting of clinical trial results by pharmaceutical firms have underlined the need for more transparency in clinical trials. We provide a theoretical framework which reproduces incentives for selective reporting and yields three key implications concerning regulation. First, a compulsory clinical trial registry complemented through a voluntary clinical trial results database can implement full transparency (the existence of all trials as well as their results is known). Second, full transparency comes at a price. It has a deterrence effect on the incentives to conduct clinical trials, as it reduces the firms'gains from trials. Third, in principle, a voluntary clinical trial results database without a compulsory registry is a superior regulatory tool; but we provide some qualified support for additional compulsory registries when medical decision-makers cannot anticipate correctly the drug companies' decisions whether to conduct trials. Keywords: pharmaceutical firms, strategic information transmission, clinical trials, registries, results databases, scientific knowledge JEL classification: D72, I18, L15

Estudi d’alteracions genètiques predictores de resposta al tractament amb cetuximab en càncer colorectal

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al Cancer Center, Massachusetts General Hospital- Harvard School of Medicine, Boston, Estats Units entre gener i juny 2007. El desenvolupament de nous fàrmacs dirigits a dianes moleculars específiques ha suposat un gran avanç en el tractament del càncer. El millor coneixement dels mecanismes que determinen la sensibilitat a aquests tractaments biològics és crucial per poder oferir tractaments selectius, optimitzar l'índex terapèutic i controlar l'elevat cost d'aquests fàrmacs. Tal com ha demostrat el grup liderat pel Dr. Settleman i altres, la sensibilitat del tumor a nous fàrmacs dirigits a diana molecular ve determinada en part per alteracions genètiques de les cèl.lules tumorals. El paradigma és la resposta clínica a fàrmacs inhibidors tirosin-cinasa d’ EGFR dels pacients amb càncer de pulmó amb mutacions d'EGFR. Donada la importància de trobar marcadors predictors de sensibilitat a les noves teràpies biològiques, la detecció a gran escala d' alteraciones genètiques i las seva correlació amb la sensibilitat al tractament amb aquests fàrmacs en models preclínics és un primer pas essencial per a un posterior desenvolupament a nivell clínic. En aquest estudi vam establir una plataforma de cribatge d’alta densitat (high throughput screening) de línies cel.lulars que ens permet detectar alteracions genètiques predictores de resposta a fàrmacs dirigits a diana molecular específica. Presentem el desenvolupament d'aquesta plataforma i el resultat de dues aplicacions específiques(... )

Compositional ideas in the bayesian analysis of categorical data with application to dose finding clinical trials

Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data.Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositionaldata have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categoricaldata.This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986)in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the problem of whatparameterization to use

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Early use of TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding.

Background Patients with cirrhosis in ChildPugh class C or those in class B who have persistent bleeding at endoscopy are at high risk for treatment failure and a poor prognosis, even if they have undergone rescue treatment with a transjugular intrahepatic porto - systemic shunt (TIPS). This study evaluated the earlier use of TIPS in such patients. Methods We randomly assigned, within 24 hours after admission, a total of 63 patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who had been treated with vasoactive drugs plus endoscopic therapy to treatment with a polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stent within 72 hours after randomization (early-TIPS group, 32 patients) or continuation of vasoactive-drug therapy, followed after 3 to 5 days by treatment with propranolol or nadolol and long-term endoscopic band ligation (EBL), with insertion of a TIPS if needed as rescue therapy (pharmacotherapyEBL group, 31 patients). Results During a median follow-up of 16 months, rebleeding or failure to control bleeding occurred in 14 patients in the pharmacotherapyEBL group as compared with 1 patient in the early-TIPS group (P=0.001). The 1-year actuarial probability of remaining free of this composite end point was 50% in the pharmacotherapyEBL group versus 97% in the early-TIPS group (P<0.001). Sixteen patients died (12 in the pharmacotherapyEBL group and 4 in the early-TIPS group, P=0.01). The 1-year actuarial survival was 61% in the pharmacotherapyEBL group versus 86% in the early-TIPS group (P<0.001). Seven patients in the pharmacotherapyEBL group received TIPS as rescue therapy, but four died. The number of days in the intensive care unit and the percentage of time in the hospital during follow-up were significantly higher in the pharmacotherapyEBL group than in the early-TIPS group. No significant diferences were observed between the two treatment groups with respect to serious adverse events. Conclusions In these patients with cirrhosis who were hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding and at high risk for treatment failure, the early use of TIPS was associated with signif icant reductions in treatment failure and in mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN58150114.)

Susceptibility to exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background Although we know that exacerbations are key events in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), our understanding of their frequency, determinants, and effects is incomplete. In a large observational cohort, we tested the hypothesis that there is a frequent-exacerbation phenotype of COPD that is independent of disease severity. Methods We analyzed the frequency and associations of exacerbation in 2138 patients enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate End points (ECLIPSE) study. Exacerbations were defined as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids (or both)or that led to hospitalization (severe exacerbations). Exacerbation frequency was observed over a period of 3 years. Results Exacerbations became more frequent (and more severe) as the severity of COPD increased; exacerbation rates in the first year of follow-up were 0.85 per person for patients with stage 2 COPD (with stage defined in accordance with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stages), 1.34 for patients with stage 3, and 2.00 for patients with stage 4. Overall, 22% of patients with stage 2 disease, 33% with stage 3, and 47% with stage 4 had frequent exacerbations (two or more in the first year of follow-up). The single best predictor of exacerbations, across all GOLD stages, was a history of exacerbations. The frequent-exacerbation phenotype appeared to be relatively stable over a period of 3 years and could be predicted on the basis of the patient"s recall of previous treated events. In addition to its association with more severe disease and prior exacerbations, the phenotype was independently associated with a history of gastroesophageal reflux or heartburn, poorer quality of life, and elevated white-cell count. Conclusions Although exacerbations become more frequent and more severe as COPD progresses, the rate at which they occur appears to reflect an independent susceptibility phenotype. This has implications for the targeting of exacerbation-prevention strategies across the spectrum of disease severity. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials .gov number, NCT00292552.)

Effectiveness of psychotropic medications in the maintenance phase of bipolar disorder:a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to examine the efficacy of maintenance treatments for bipolar disorder. Placebo-controlled or active comparator bipolar maintenance clinical trials of ≥6 months' duration with at least 15 patients/treatment group were identified using Medline, EMBASE, clinicaltrials.gov, and Cochrane databases (1993 to July 2010). The main outcome measure was relative risk for relapse for patients in remission. Twenty trials (5,364 patients) were identified. Overall, lithium and quetiapine were the most studied agents (eight and five trials, respectively). The majority of studies included patients who had previously responded to treatment for an acute episode. All interventions, with the exception of perphenazine+mood stabilizer, showed a relative risk for manic/mixed or depressive relapse below 1.0, although there was variation in the statistical significance of the findings vs. placebo. No monotherapy was associated with a significantly reduced risk for both manic/mixed and depressed relapse. Of the combination treatments, only quetiapine+lithium/divalproex, was associated with a significantly reduced risk vs. comparator (placebo+lithium/valproate) for relapse at both the manic/mixed and depressed poles of bipolar illness. Limitations for the analysis include differences in study durations and definitions of relapse. In conclusion, available maintenance therapies show considerable variation in efficacy. The efficacy of lithium and divalproex has been confirmed, but newer therapies, such as a number of atypical antipsychotics were also shown to be effective in bipolar disorder. Efficacy of all maintenance interventions needs to be balanced against the safety and tolerability profiles of individual agents.

Efficacy of modern antipsychotics in placebo-controlled trials in bipolar depression: a meta-analysis.

Randomized, controlled trials have demonstrated efficacy for second-generation antipsychotics in the treatment of acute mania in bipolar disorder. Despite depression being considered the hallmark of bipolar disorder, there are no published systematic reviews or meta-analyses to evaluate the efficacy of modern atypical antipsychotics in bipolar depression. We systematically reviewed published or registered randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) of modern antipsychotics in adult bipolar I and/or II depressive patients (DSM-IV criteria). Efficacy outcomes were assessed based on changes in the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) during an 8-wk period. Data were combined through meta-analysis using risk ratio as an effect size with a 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and with a level of statistical significance of 5% (p<0.05). We identified five RCTs; four involved antipsychotic monotherapy and one addressed both monotherapy and combination with an antidepressant. The two quetiapine trials analysed the safety and efficacy of two doses: 300 and 600 mg/d. The only olanzapine trial assessed olanzapine monotherapy within a range of 5-20 mg/d and olanzapine-fluoxetine combination within a range of 5-20 mg/d and 6-12 mg/d, respectively. The two aripiprazole placebo-controlled trials assessed doses of 5-30 mg/d. Quetiapine and olanzapine trials (3/5, 60%) demonstrated superiority over placebo (p<0.001). Only 2/5 (40%) (both aripiprazole trials) failed in the primary efficacy measure after the first 6 wk. Some modern antipsychotics (quetiapine and olanzapine) have demonstrated efficacy in bipolar depressive patients from week 1 onwards. Rapid onset of action seems to be a common feature of atypical antipsychotics in bipolar depression. Comment in The following popper user interface control may not be accessible. Tab to the next button to revert the control to an accessible version.Destroy user interface controlEfficacy of modern antipsychotics in placebo-controlled trials in bipolar depression: a meta-analysis--results to be interpreted with caution.

Factors modifying drug and placebo responses in randomized trials for bipolar mania

Factors modifying drug and placebo responses in randomized trials for bipolar mania. Yildiz A, Vieta E, Tohen M, Baldessarini RJ. Source Department of Psychiatry, Dokuz Eylül University, Izmir, Turkey. agul_yildiz@hotmail.com Abstract Randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) are standard for assessing efficacy and safety of treatments. We pursued preliminary indications that some factors are associated differentially with responses to placebo or drugs in RCTs for bipolar mania. We meta-analysed data from RCTs to assess influences of study-site count, subjects' age, sex distribution, diagnostic subgroups, clinical features, trial-completion rates, and publication year on mean difference (MD) in mania ratings between intake and final assessments. In 38 RCTs involving 3812 placebo-treated and 6988 drug-treated patients, symptomatic improvement was similar in placebo arms of trials of effective (6.77, 95% CI 5.77-7.76) and ineffective (7.61, 95% CI 5.47-8.75) drugs. Lesser placebo responses (MD) and greater drug-placebo differences (Hedges' g) were associated with fewer study sites, younger patients' age, and male sex. More patients with initial psychotic features and more trial completion in drug arms were associated with greater drug-associated improvement (MD) and drug-placebo contrast (Hedges' g), whereas more mixed-state diagnoses decreased both measures. Identifying modifying factors can support more efficient and cost-effective designs of therapeutic trials. In trials for mania, fewer sites may limit placebo response and enhance drug-placebo contrasts.