Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Structured and unstructured continuous models for Wolbachia infections

We introduce and investigate a series of models for an infection of a diplodiploid host species by the bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia. The continuous models are characterized by partial vertical transmission, cytoplasmic incompatibility and fitness costs associated with the infection. A particular aspect of interest is competitions between mutually incompatible strains. We further introduce an age-structured model that takes into account different fertility and mortality rates at different stages of the life cycle of the individuals. With only a few parameters, the ordinary differential equation models exhibit already interesting dynamics and can be used to predict criteria under which a strain of bacteria is able to invade a population. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the age-structured model shows significant differences concerning the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions compared to the unstructured model.

Semigroup analysis of structured populations with distributed states-at-birth arising in mathematical aquaculture

Motivated by the modelling of structured parasite populations in aquaculture we consider a class of physiologically structured population models, where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes in general. That is, we consider a size-structured population model with distributed states-at-birth. The mathematical model which describes the evolution of such a population is a first order nonlinear partial integro-differential equation of hyperbolic type. First, we use positive perturbation arguments and utilise results from the spectral theory of semigroups to establish conditions for the existence of a positive equilibrium solution of our model. Then we formulate conditions that guarantee that the linearised system is governed by a positive quasicontraction semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. We also show that the governing linear semigroup is eventually compact, hence growth properties of the semigroup are determined by the spectrum of its generator. In case of a separable fertility function we deduce a characteristic equation and investigate the stability of equilibrium solutions in the general case using positive perturbation arguments.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the natural death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. We consider that the length of the lysis timing (or latent period) is distributed according to a general probability distribution function. We have carried out an optimization procedure and we have found the latent period corresponding to the maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate) of the bacteriophage population.

Oscillations in a molecular structured cell population model

We consider a nonlinear cyclin content structured model of a cell population divided into proliferative and quiescent cells. We show, for particular values of the parameters, existence of solutions that do not depend on the cyclin content. We make numerical simulations for the general case obtaining, for some values of the parameters convergence to the steady state but also oscillations of the population for others.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Vision-based localization of an underwater robot in a structured environment

This paper presents a vision-based localization approach for an underwater robot in a structured environment. The system is based on a coded pattern placed on the bottom of a water tank and an onboard down looking camera. Main features are, absolute and map-based localization, landmark detection and tracking, and real-time computation (12.5 Hz). The proposed system provides three-dimensional position and orientation of the vehicle along with its velocity. Accuracy of the drift-free estimates is very high, allowing them to be used as feedback measures of a velocity-based low-level controller. The paper details the localization algorithm, by showing some graphical results, and the accuracy of the system

Calibration of a Structured Light-Based Stereo Catadioptric Sensor

Catadioptric sensors are combinations of mirrors and lenses made in order to obtain a wide field of view. In this paper we propose a new sensor that has omnidirectional viewing ability and it also provides depth information about the nearby surrounding. The sensor is based on a conventional camera coupled with a laser emitter and two hyperbolic mirrors. Mathematical formulation and precise specifications of the intrinsic and extrinsic parameters of the sensor are discussed. Our approach overcomes limitations of the existing omni-directional sensors and eventually leads to reduced costs of production

Robust decoupled visual servoing based on structured light

This paper focuses on the problem of realizing a plane-to-plane virtual link between a camera attached to the end-effector of a robot and a planar object. In order to do the system independent to the object surface appearance, a structured light emitter is linked to the camera so that 4 laser pointers are projected onto the object. In a previous paper we showed that such a system has good performance and nice characteristics like partial decoupling near the desired state and robustness against misalignment of the emitter and the camera (J. Pages et al., 2004). However, no analytical results concerning the global asymptotic stability of the system were obtained due to the high complexity of the visual features utilized. In this work we present a better set of visual features which improves the properties of the features in (J. Pages et al., 2004) and for which it is possible to prove the global asymptotic stability

Plane-to-plane positioning from image-based visual servoing and structured light

In this paper we face the problem of positioning a camera attached to the end-effector of a robotic manipulator so that it gets parallel to a planar object. Such problem has been treated for a long time in visual servoing. Our approach is based on linking to the camera several laser pointers so that its configuration is aimed to produce a suitable set of visual features. The aim of using structured light is not only for easing the image processing and to allow low-textured objects to be treated, but also for producing a control scheme with nice properties like decoupling, stability, well conditioning and good camera trajectory

A new optimised De Bruijn coding strategy for structured light patterns

Coded structured light is an optical technique based on active stereovision that obtains the shape of objects. One shot techniques are based on projecting a unique light pattern with an LCD projector so that grabbing an image with a camera, a large number of correspondences can be obtained. Then, a 3D reconstruction of the illuminated object can be recovered by means of triangulation. The most used strategy to encode one-shot patterns is based on De Bruijn sequences. In This work a new way to design patterns using this type of sequences is presented. The new coding strategy minimises the number of required colours and maximises both the resolution and the accuracy

Implementation of a robust coded structured light technique for dynamic 3D measurements

This paper presents the implementation details of a coded structured light system for rapid shape acquisition of unknown surfaces. Such techniques are based on the projection of patterns onto a measuring surface and grabbing images of every projection with a camera. Analyzing the pattern deformations that appear in the images, 3D information of the surface can be calculated. The implemented technique projects a unique pattern so that it can be used to measure moving surfaces. The structure of the pattern is a grid where the color of the slits are selected using a De Bruijn sequence. Moreover, since both axis of the pattern are coded, the cross points of the grid have two codewords (which permits to reconstruct them very precisely), while pixels belonging to horizontal and vertical slits have also a codeword. Different sets of colors are used for horizontal and vertical slits, so the resulting pattern is invariant to rotation. Therefore, the alignment constraint between camera and projector considered by a lot of authors is not necessary

SLAM using an Imaging Sonar for Partially Structured Underwater Environments

In this paper we describe a system for underwater navigation with AUVs in partially structured environments, such as dams, ports or marine platforms. An imaging sonar is used to obtain information about the location of planar structures present in such environments. This information is incorporated into a feature-based SLAM algorithm in a two step process: (I) the full 360deg sonar scan is undistorted (to compensate for vehicle motion), thresholded and segmented to determine which measurements correspond to planar environment features and which should be ignored; and (2) SLAM proceeds once the data association is obtained: both the vehicle motion and the measurements whose correct association has been previously determined are incorporated in the SLAM algorithm. This two step delayed SLAM process allows to robustly determine the feature and vehicle locations in the presence of large amounts of spurious or unrelated measurements that might correspond to boats, rocks, etc. Preliminary experiments show the viability of the proposed approach