Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

The Management of the Allergic Child at School: EAACI/GA2LEN Task Force on the Allergic Child at School

Allergy affects at least one-quarter of European schoolchildren, it reduces quality of life and may impair school performance; there is a risk of severe reactions and, in rare cases, death. Allergy is a multi-system disorder, and children often have several co-existing diseases, i.e. allergic rhinitis, asthma, eczema and food allergy. Severe food allergy reactions may occur for the first time at school, and overall 20% of food allergy reactions occur in schools. Up to two-thirds of schools have at least one child at risk of anaphylaxis but many are poorly prepared. A cooperative partnership between doctors, community and school nurses, school staff, parents and the child is necessary to ensure allergic children are protected. Schools and doctors should adopt a comprehensive approach to allergy training, ensuring that all staff can prevent, recognize and initiate treatment of allergic reactions.