Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.

Assessment of climate change statistical downscaling methods: Application and comparison of two statistical methods to a single site in Lisbon

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Bridging environmental conflicts with social metabolism : forestry expansion and socioeconomic change

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Contributo para a validação da versão portuguesa da Quebec Back Pain Disability Scale : fiabilidade e poder de resposta em utentes com dor lombar crónica

RESUMO: Um dos principais resultados das intervenções de Fisioterapia dirigidas a utentes com Dor Lombar Crónica (DLC) é reduzir a incapacidade funcional. A Quebec Back Pain Disability Scale (QBPDS) é um instrumento amplamente aceite a nível internacional na medição do nível de incapacidade funcional reportada pelos indivíduos com DLC. O objetivo deste estudo é dar um contributo para a adaptação cultural da versão portuguesa da QBPDS (QBPDS-VP) e investigar o poder de resposta e interpretabilidade da escala. Metodologia: Realizou-se um estudo metodológico, multicentro, baseado num coorte prospetivo de 132 utentes com DLC. Os utentes foram recrutados a partir da lista de espera de 16 serviços de Medicina Física e de Reabilitação/Fisioterapia de várias áreas geográficas de Portugal. A QBPDS- VP foi administrada 3 vezes, em 3 momentos de recolha de dados distintos: T0 - momento inicial (utentes em lista de espera); T1 - 1 semana de intervalo (início dos tratamentos de Fisioterapia); e T2 - 6 semanas de intervalo (pós-intervenção de Fisioterapia). Os dados recolhidos em T0 foram utilizados para a análise fatorial e para o estudo da consistência interna (n=132); os dados da amostra emparelhada de T0 e T1 (n=132) para a fiabilidade teste-reteste; e os dados da amostra emparelhada de T0 e T2 (n=120) para a análise do poder de resposta e interpretabilidade. A âncora externa utilizada foi a perceção global de mudança, neste caso a PGIC- VP, que foi respondida em T1 e T2. O nível de significância para o qual os valores se consideraram satisfatórios foi de p≤ 0,05. O tratamento dos dados foi realizado no software IBM SPSS Statistics (versão 20). Resultados: A QBPDS- VP é uma escala unidimensional, que revela uma excelente consistência interna (α de Cronbach= 0,95) e uma fiabilidade teste-reteste satisfatória (CCI= 0,696; IC 95%: 0,581–0,783). Esta escala demonstrou um poder de resposta moderado, quando aplicada em utentes com DLC ( = 0,426 e AAC= 0,741; IC 95%: 0,645 – 0,837). A Diferença Mínima Detetável (DMD) estimada foi de 19 pontos e as estimativas da Diferença Mínima Clinicamente Importante (DMCI) variaram entre 7 (pelo método curva ROC) e 8 pontos (pelo método “diferença média de pontuação”). A estimativa pela curva ROC deriva do ponto ótimo de corte de 6,5 pontos, com Área Abaixo da Curva (AAC)= 0,741, sensibilidade de 72%, e especificidade de 71%. Uma análise complementar da curva ROC baseada nas diferenças de pontuações da QBPDS, expressa em percentagem, revelou um ponto ótimo de corte de - 24% (AAC= 0,737, sensibilidade de 71%, e especificidade de 71%). Para pontuações iniciais da QBPDS- VP mais altas (≥34 pontos), foi encontrado um ponto ótimo de corte de 10,5 pontos (AAC= 0,738, sensibilidade de 73%, e especificidade de 67%). Conclusão: A QBPDS-VP demonstrou bons níveis de fiabilidade e poder de resposta, recomendando-se o seu uso na medição e avaliação da incapacidade funcional de utentes com DLC. A DMD estimada, de 19 pontos, determinou uma amplitude válida da QBPDS-VP de 19 a 81 pontos. Este estudo propõe estimativas de DMCI da QBPDS- VP numa aplicação específica da escala (em utentes com DLC que são referidos para a intervenção de Fisioterapia). A pontuação inicial da QBPDS- VP deve ser considerada na interpretação de mudanças de pontuação, após a intervenção de Fisioterapia.------------ ABSTRACT: One of the main results of physiotherapy interventions for patients with Chronic Low Back Pain (CLBP) is decrease the functional disability. The Quebec Back Pain Disability Scale (QBPDS) is an instrument widely accepted internationally, in measuring the level of disability reported by individuals with CLBP. The purpose of this study is to contribute to the cultural adaptation of the Portuguese version of QBPDS (QBPDS - PV) and investigate the Responsiveness and Interpretability of QBPDS-PV. Methodology: This was a methodological and multicenter study, based on a sample of 132 subjects with CLBP. The patients were recruited from the waiting lists of 16 medicine rehabilitation service, in many Portugal districts. The Quebec Back Pain Disability Scale was administered in three different moments: T0 – baseline (patients in the waiting list); T1- one week after T0 (the beginning of treatment); and T2 – six weeks after T1 (the posttreatment). The data collected at T0 were used for factor analysis and to study the internal consistency (n = 132); paired sample data of T0 and T1 (n=132) were used for test-retest reliability, and sample data paired for T0 and T2 (n=120) used for responsiveness and interpretability analysis. The external anchor was the global perception of change, measured by the Portuguese version of Patient’s Global Impression of Change (PGIC) Scale. The minimal level of significance established was p ≤ 0,05. Data analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics software (version 20). Results: The QBPDS-PV is a unidimensional scale, demonstrates an excellent internal consistency (Cronbach's α=0.95) and satisfactory test-retest reliability (ICC= 0.696, 95% CI: 0.581–0.783). The scale revealed moderate responsiveness when applied to patients with CLBP ( = 0.426 and AUC= 0.741, 95% CI: 0.645 - 0.837). The Smallest Detectable Change (SDC) was 19 points, whereas the Minimal Clinically Important Change (MCIC) ranged between 7 (ROC curve method) and 8 points (by the "mean difference score"). The estimate was derived from the ROC curve by an optimal cutoff point of 6.5 points, with Area Under the Curve (AUC)= 0.741, sensitivity 72%, and specificity of 71%. A complementary analysis of the ROC curve based on differences in QBPDS scores from baseline, expressed in percentage, revealed an optimal cutoff point of -24% (AUC= 0.737, sensitivity of 71%, and specificity of 71%). For the highest initial scores of QBPDS-PV (≥ 34 points) was found an optimal cutoff of 10.5 points (AUC= 0.738, sensitivity of 73%, and specificity 67%). Conclusion: The QBPDS-PV demonstrated good levels of reliability and responsiveness, being recommended its use in the measurement and evaluation of disability of patients with CLBP. The SDC of 19 points determined the QBPDS‟ scale width of 19 to 81. This study proposes MCIC values for QBPDS –PV for this specific setting (in CLBP patients who are referred for physiotherapy intervention). The QBPDS –PV baseline score have to be taken into account while interpreting the score change after physiotherapy intervention.

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Influence of abiotic stress factors on VOCs emission from Portuguese rice paddy fields: relation with increased climate change

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente Perfil de Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

An analysis of teachers' environmental concerns: use of a conceptual change model

Tese de doutoramento em Ciências da Educação

Pattern operators for grid

The definition and programming of distributed applications has become a major research issue due to the increasing availability of (large scale) distributed platforms and the requirements posed by the economical globalization. However, such a task requires a huge effort due to the complexity of the distributed environments: large amount of users may communicate and share information across different authority domains; moreover, the “execution environment” or “computations” are dynamic since the number of users and the computational infrastructure change in time. Grid environments, in particular, promise to be an answer to deal with such complexity, by providing high performance execution support to large amount of users, and resource sharing across different organizations. Nevertheless, programming in Grid environments is still a difficult task. There is a lack of high level programming paradigms and support tools that may guide the application developer and allow reusability of state-of-the-art solutions. Specifically, the main goal of the work presented in this thesis is to contribute to the simplification of the development cycle of applications for Grid environments by bringing structure and flexibility to three stages of that cycle through a commonmodel. The stages are: the design phase, the execution phase, and the reconfiguration phase. The common model is based on the manipulation of patterns through pattern operators, and the division of both patterns and operators into two categories, namely structural and behavioural. Moreover, both structural and behavioural patterns are first class entities at each of the aforesaid stages. At the design phase, patterns can be manipulated like other first class entities such as components. This allows a more structured way to build applications by reusing and composing state-of-the-art patterns. At the execution phase, patterns are units of execution control: it is possible, for example, to start or stop and to resume the execution of a pattern as a single entity. At the reconfiguration phase, patterns can also be manipulated as single entities with the additional advantage that it is possible to perform a structural reconfiguration while keeping some of the behavioural constraints, and vice-versa. For example, it is possible to replace a behavioural pattern, which was applied to some structural pattern, with another behavioural pattern. In this thesis, besides the proposal of the methodology for distributed application development, as sketched above, a definition of a relevant set of pattern operators was made. The methodology and the expressivity of the pattern operators were assessed through the development of several representative distributed applications. To support this validation, a prototype was designed and implemented, encompassing some relevant patterns and a significant part of the patterns operators defined. This prototype was based in the Triana environment; Triana supports the development and deployment of distributed applications in the Grid through a dataflow-based programming model. Additionally, this thesis also presents the analysis of a mapping of some operators for execution control onto the Distributed Resource Management Application API (DRMAA). This assessment confirmed the suitability of the proposed model, as well as the generality and flexibility of the defined pattern operators

Change Processes and Future Perspectives in the Knowledge Society. The Example of Clothing and Textile Industry

The paper examines change processes und future perspectives in the knowledge society. It presents the clothing and textile industry as an example for a transforming industry in a global economy. The paper reviews existing future studies, which have surveyed change processes and future developments in the clothing and textile industry. Main goals of the review are the identification of changes in work and the description of the restructuring of global value chains within the clothing and textile sector. The paper also highlights major current trends, drivers of change and future prospects in this sector.

Climate change impacts on portuguese energy system in 2050

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Detecção automática de alterações do coberto florestal com imagens de satélite de grande e muito grande resolução espacial

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Land use / land cover change detection: an object oriented approach, Münster, Germany

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Economies of scale and scope in the provision of diagnostic techniques and therapeutic services in Portuguese hospitals

This paper analyses the provision of auxiliary clinical services that are typically carried out within the hospital. We estimate a exible cost function for the three most important (cost- wise) diagnostic techniques and therapeutic services in Portuguese hospitals: Clinical Pathology, Medical Imaging and Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Our objective in carrying out this estimation is the evaluation of economies of scale and scope in the provision of these services. For all services, we nd evidence of ray economies of scale and some evidence of economies of scope. These results have important policy implications and can be related to the ongoing discussion of where and how should hospitals provide these services.

Time-frequency and time-scale characterisation of the beat-by-beat high-resolution electrocardiogram

Proceedings of the Sixth Portuguese Conference on Bioemedical Engineering faro, Portugal