Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Determinants of Portuguese external imbalances

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Essay on external imbalances within the Euro Area

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Effects of a monetary union on a small peripheral country: Stabilization and competitiveness in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Beyond the carry trade: Optimal currency portfolios

Author's Pre-print

Exchange rate pressure in Angola

The objective of this work is to develop an operational tool to analyze exchange rate pressure in the context of Angola. The Angolan economy exhibits a number of relevant characteristics: a closed financial account, a partially controlled current account, a highly dollarized economy and exports (oil) price determined in World markets. These features have a direct effect on the demand of foreign currency and motivate their inclusion in the specification of a model for Angola. The model provides the rational for a measure of an exchange market rate pressure (EMP) index that contains exports changes, imports changes, the foreign interest rate and inflation and the change in foreign reserves corrected for a measure dollarization. The empirical performance new measure is comparable (slightly better) to the performance of the EMP indexes obtained in Eichengreen Rose and Wyplosz (1994) and Klassen and Jager (2011).

The impact of Ireland’s current Mental Health Policy on the profile of community mental Health Services

RESUMO: Em 2006, foi aprovada uma nova política governamental para a saúde mental intitulada “Uma Visão para a Mudança”, a qual está neste momento no sétimo ano de implementação. A política descreve um enquadramento para o desenvolvimento e promoção da saúde mental positiva para toda a Comunidade e para a prestação de serviços acessíveis, baseados na comunidade, serviços especializados para pessoas com doença mental. A implementação da política e o tornar a “Vision for Change” uma realidade têm sido problemáticos, com críticas consideráveis por parte dos intervenientes, relativas à lenta e desconexa implementação. Este estudo fornece informação sobre as características dos serviços de três importantes tipos de instituições de saúde mental comunitária a nível nacional, nomeadamente Hospitais de Dia, Centros de Dia e residências comunitárias operantes 24 horas. A pesquisa analisa objetivos e funções, perfis dos pacientes, atividades terapêuticas, a eficácia das redes de comunicação e beneficia da perspectiva dos funcionários sobre o que mudou no terreno ao longo dos últimos sete anos. As questões identificadas a partir das características dos três serviços dizem respeito a todos. Os participantes indicaram que o ethos da recuperação parece ter alcançado um papel mais central no tratamento do paciente na comunidade mas reconheceram que o desafio de integrar os princípios de recuperação na prática clínica se mantém presente. Parece ser reconhecida a importância da planificação do cuidado individual nos serviços comunitários e os entrevistados indicaram que existe um empenho para garantir o envolvimento do usuário do serviço. Há diferenças entre os „pontos de vista do pessoal‟ e os „pontos de vista dos representantes‟ sobre uma série de aspetos da prestação de serviços. Este é o primeiro estudo irlandês deste género a examinar a prestação de serviços das três principais instituições comunitárias de saúde mental num só estudo. Estes serviços representam um enorme investimento em recursos, quer a nível monetário, quer humano. O estudo examinou os desafios e as questões fundamentais que lhe são aplicáveis e que têm impacto nestes três tipos de prestação de serviços. Também forneceu informações sobre os elementos de mudança positiva, os quais se começam a focar lentamente na prestação do serviço, assim como na importância da centralidade do utilizador do serviço e na promoção de um ethos da recuperação.----------ABSTRACT: In 2006, a new Government policy for mental health “A Vision for Change” was endorsed and is currently in the seventh year of implementation. The policy describes a comprehensive framework for building and fostering positive mental health across the entire community and for providing accessible, community based, specialist services for people with mental illness. The implementation of the policy and turning “Vision for Change” into reality has been problematic with considerable criticism from stakeholders concerning slow and disjointed implementation. This study provides information on three key community mental health service settings, namely Day Hospitals, Day Centres and 24 Hour Community Residences at a national level. The research looks at aims and functions, patient profiles, therapeutic activities, effectiveness of key communication networks and gains an insight from staff on what has changed on the ground over the past seven years. Issues identified from the three service settings pertain to all. Participants indicated that the recovery ethos appears to have moved to a more central role in patient care in the community but acknowledged that the challenge of integrating recovery principles in clinical practice remains present. The importance of individual care planning appears to be recognised in community services and respondents indicated that efforts are being made to ensure service user involvement. There were differences between „staff views‟ and „advocate views‟ on a number of aspects of service provision. This is the first Irish study of its kind to examine service provision across the three main community mental health settings in one study. These services represent a huge investment in resources both on a monetary and human level. This study has examined the challenges and key issues which are applicable and impacting on all three types of service provision. It has also provided information on the elements of positive change, which are slowly embedding themselves in service provision such as the importance of the centricity of the service user and the promotion of a recovery ethos.

Potential for ORC application in the Portuguese manufacturing industry

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

O contrato de Project Finance

Currently, Angola portrays a notorious economic growth and due to recent innovative legislations, it has become the major investment attracting pole, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, having, thus, an extraordinary potentiality for a rapid and sustainable development, likely to place her in outstanding positions in the world economic ranking. Yet, such economic growth entails demanding levels of intensive investment in infrastructure, what has been reported of the Angolan Government to be unable to respond to, save if recurring to very high index of external debt, poisoning, in this way, the future budgeting of the country. Due to these infrastructure investment shortages, the cost of production remains highly onerous and the cost of life extremely unaffordable. On this account, the current study disserts about the contract of Project Finance; an alternative finance resource given as a viable solution for the private financing of infrastructure, aiming to demonstrate that such contractual figure, likewise the experience of several emerging economies and others, is a contract bid framework to take into account in today’s world. It refers to a financing technique – through which the Government may satisfy a common need (for example, the construction of a public domain or public servicing), without having to pay neither offer any collateral – based on a complex legal-financial engineering, arranged throughout a coalition of typical and atypical agreements, whereby it is mandatory to look back at the basic concepts of corporate law. More than just a simple financial study, the dissertation at stake analyses the nature and legal framework of Project Finance, which is a legally atypical and innominate contract, concluding that there is a relevant need for regulating and devoting a special legal regime in the Angolan jurisdiction for this promising legal form in the contemporary corporate finance world.

The effectiveness of the “Processo Especial de Revitalização” as an instrument of corporate restructuring in the context of the current economic crisis

This work project intends to evaluate the effectiveness of the Portuguese Government’s strategy to promote the orderly deleveraging of the corporate sector in the context of the current economic crisis. The recommendations of the Troika and the commitments assumed under the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Government in 2011 required the creation of formal processes to avoid disorderly deleveraging. Conclusions and recommendations were drawn based on past experiences of large-scale corporate restructuring strategies in other countries and on the analysis of financial and statistical data on companies applying for “Programa Especial de Revitalização”.

Gestão de museus : o caso do Museu Nacional de Arqueologia

O presente trabalho pretende caraterizar o regime atual de governação do MNA descrevendo-o do ponto de vista dos recursos financeiros, recursos humanos, marketing e planeamento, tendo em conta a sua dependência da Direção Geral de Património Cultural, complementarmente pretende apresentar algumas propostas de melhoria. Desde a sua criação o Museu Nacional de Arqueologia, tem por objetivo representar a parte material da vida do homem português desde a pré-história. Hoje, constitui a instituição de referência da Arqueologia Portuguesa, ligado a outros museus, universidades e centros de investigação por todo o mundo. Num momento em que num número crescente de países, os museus e instituições culturais têm de procurar fontes alternativas de financiamento, por força do desinvestimento por parte dos Estados, e a reduzir os gastos, incluindo restrições às contratações de recursos humanos, coloca-se um grande desafio àqueles que gerem estas instituições. Por um lado, valências como lojas com artigos ligados ao museu e a concessão de espaços de restauração nas suas instalações, a organização de eventos temáticos lúdico-pedagógicos, acompanhados de uma estratégia de comunicação segmentada, contribuem para a diversificação e o aumento de públicos. Por outro lado, atividades de fundraising devem passar a ser uma prática comum nestas entidades. Tudo isto, tendo sempre presente que se trata de uma entidade cultural com uma função de produção de conhecimento e cultura, não devendo o Estado alhear-se desta função. O Museu Nacional de Arqueologia, é tutelado pela Direção Geral do Património Cultural o que impõe constrangimentos ao nível da gestão. Embora seja possível, pela direção do MNA, tomar decisões relativas à área financeira, a perceção do seu impacto não é imediata. No que respeita aos recursos humanos, estamos perante um quadro qualificado, capaz de dar resposta às exigências do funcionamento do museu, mas que pela média etária e pelas dificuldades de contratação, coloca em risco o futuro. O marketing e o planeamento são as áreas em análise que apresentam menos constrangimentos, pela dependência da tutela. Os processos de marketing são concretizados pelos diferentes departamentos, com uma abordagem tradicional, ou seja unilateral, verificando-se pouca interação com os seus públicos. O plano de atividades é bastante completo e é uma boa ferramenta de gestão no que respeita ao planeamento, assim como o planeamento de carácter estratégico permite ao museu seguir uma linha de continuidade.

Distributed solar micro generation

Taking into account the fact that the sun’s radiation is estimated to be enough to cover 10.000 times the world’s total energy needs (BRAKMANN & ARINGHOFF, 2003), it is difficult to understand how solar photovoltaic systems (PV) are still such a small part of the energy source matrix across the globe. Though there is an ongoing debate as to whether energy consumption leads to economic growth or whether it is the other way around, the two variables appear correlated and it is clear that ensuring the availability of energy to match a country’s growth targets is one of the prime concerns for any government. The topic of centralized vs distributed electricity generation is also approached, especially in what regards the latter fit to developing countries needs, namely the lack of investment capabilities and infrastructure, scattered population, and other factors. Finally, Brazil’s case is reviewed, showing that the current cost of electricity from the grid versus the cost from PV solutions still places an investment of this nature with 9 to 16 years to reach breakeven (from a 25 year panel lifespan), which is too high compared to the required 4 years for most Brazilians. Still, recently passed legislation opened the door, even if unknowingly, to the development of co-owned solar farms, which could reduce the implementation costs by as much as 20% and hence reduce the number of years to breakeven by 3 years.

Current mortars in conservation: an overview

Renders are an important item in historical buildings and the need for their periodical re-application is a basic conservation procedure. In modern times there has been a trend towards the replacement of traditional pure lime mortars by new formulations including Portland cement or hydraulic lime. Apart from those interventions on specific and very important monuments, in which the use oftraditional non-hydraulic mortars can be enforced, in most of the projects involving less than first order magnitude heritage the use of some sort of hydraulic components is becoming the rule rather than the exception. The present paper describes and analyses the results of an experimental study with ten formulations of current mortars - including some that can hardly be considered as adequate conservation procedures - allowing a direct comparison in terms of some of the most relevant characteristics.

Future gender relations in global restructuring processes case study evidence from knowledge-intensive, manufacturing and service occupations

Global restructuring processes have not only strong implications for European working and living realities, but also have specific outcomes with regard to gender relations. The following contribution analyses in which way global restructuring shapes current gender relations in order to identify important trends and developments for future gender (in)equalities at the workplace. On the basis of a large qualitative study on global restructuring and impacts on different occupational groups it argues that occupational belonging in line with skill and qualification levels are crucial factors to assess the further development of gender relations at work. Whereas global restructuring in knowledge-based occupations may provide new opportunities for female employees, current restructuring is going to deteriorate female labour participation in service occupations. In contrast, manufacturing occupations can be characterised by persistent gender relations, which do not change in spite of major restructuring processes at the work place. Taking the institutional perspective into account, it seems to be crucial to integrate the occupational perspective in order to apply adequate policy regulations to prevent the reinforcement of gender related working patterns in the near future.

The Cornerstones of Modern Government Maps, Weights and Measures and Census in Liberal Portugal (19th century)

Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor in History and Civilisation from the European University Institute