Working hours and earnings: are mates’ answers coherent?

As surveys about time allocation among couples are extremely expensive, one way of reducing costs could be to query only one member of the coupler with the same set of questions about him/her and about his/her partner. In this paper we show that after carrying out a survey in this way, the responses given by one partner do not always fit the same econometric model as those obtained from the other.

Reporting earnings per share: Evidence from Portuguese annual reports

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Fearful asymmetry: An analysis of pre-earnings abnormal returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Earnings overseas and cash holdings

I investigate the impact of foreign pre-tax income on the total amount of cash held by companies and on the amount of cash that is held in companies’ foreign subsidiaries. I also investigate the impact of the existence and amount of cash held on companies’ foreign subsidiaries in the composition of cash holdings in terms of risk and liquidity. Using a sample of 100 largest U.S. non-financial and non-utilities companies I find that companies with higher earnings overseas present higher cash reserves and invest a higher fraction of their cash in risky assets. My evidence suggests that companies have a different optimization strategy for cash overseas, in which precautionary motives are not the main driver for holding cash.

A look into the cross-section of industry stock returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Depreciation manipulation and its impact on firms' returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Bank-firm relationships and financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Returns to vocational education in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Automatic extraction of concepts from texts and applications

The extraction of relevant terms from texts is an extensively researched task in Text- Mining. Relevant terms have been applied in areas such as Information Retrieval or document clustering and classification. However, relevance has a rather fuzzy nature since the classification of some terms as relevant or not relevant is not consensual. For instance, while words such as "president" and "republic" are generally considered relevant by human evaluators, and words like "the" and "or" are not, terms such as "read" and "finish" gather no consensus about their semantic and informativeness. Concepts, on the other hand, have a less fuzzy nature. Therefore, instead of deciding on the relevance of a term during the extraction phase, as most extractors do, I propose to first extract, from texts, what I have called generic concepts (all concepts) and postpone the decision about relevance for downstream applications, accordingly to their needs. For instance, a keyword extractor may assume that the most relevant keywords are the most frequent concepts on the documents. Moreover, most statistical extractors are incapable of extracting single-word and multi-word expressions using the same methodology. These factors led to the development of the ConceptExtractor, a statistical and language-independent methodology which is explained in Part I of this thesis. In Part II, I will show that the automatic extraction of concepts has great applicability. For instance, for the extraction of keywords from documents, using the Tf-Idf metric only on concepts yields better results than using Tf-Idf without concepts, specially for multi-words. In addition, since concepts can be semantically related to other concepts, this allows us to build implicit document descriptors. These applications led to published work. Finally, I will present some work that, although not published yet, is briefly discussed in this document.

Definição de um modelo de incentivo de profissionais de saúde em contexto de integração vertical e financiamento capitativo de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Contexto Os indivíduos, tal como as instituições, não são imunes a incentivos. No entanto, enquanto os modelos de incentivos das instituições têm sido alvo de diferentes evoluções, o mesmo não se verificou ao nível dos profissionais. Esta situação não se figura compatível com a complexidade de gestão de recursos humanos, devendo ser obviada para potenciar o alinhamento entre os interesses institucionais e os dos próprios profissionais. Objectivos Estudar a atribuição de incentivos a profissionais de saúde no contexto de organizações com integração vertical de cuidados. Metodologia A metodologia adoptada compreendeu três fases. Numa primeira procedeu-se à revisão sistemática de literatura relativa à: (1) construção de modelos de incentivo a profissionais em diferentes sistemas de saúde e tipo de prestadores; e (2) identificação de medidas de custo-efectividade comprovada. Tendo por base esta evidência, a par de documentação oficial ao nível do modelo de financiamento das ULS, procedeu-se, numa segunda fase, à construção de um modelo de incentivo base com recurso à ferramenta Microsoft Excel. Por último, numa terceira etapa, procedeu-se à adaptação do modelo base construído na etapa transacta tendo por base informação obtida mediante a realização de um estudo retrospectivo in loco na ULS do Baixo Alentejo (ULSBA). Em adição, procedeu-se à estimativa do impacto na perspectiva da ULS e dos profissionais para o cenário base e diversas análises de sensibilidade. Resultados No que respeita à estrutura, o modelo base de incentivos a profissionais apresenta 44 indicadores, distribuídos por cinco dimensões de análise, sendo que 28 indicadores (63,6%) são de processo e 14 (31,8%) de resultado. Relativamente às dimensões em análise, verifica-se uma predominância de indicadores ao nível da dimensão eficiência e qualidade assistencial, totalizando 35 (i.e. 79,5% dos 44 indicadores). No que respeita ao destinatário, 14 indicadores (31,8%) apresentam uma visão holística da ULS, 17 (38,6%) encontram-se adstritos unicamente aos cuidados primários e os remanescentes 13 (29,5%) aos cuidados hospitalares. Cerca de 85% dos actuais incentivos da ULSBA decorre da unidade de pagamento salarial secundada pelo pagamento de suplementos (12%). Não obstante, o estudo retrospectivo da ULSBA confirmou o cenário expectável de ausência de um modelo de incentivo homogéneos e transversal à ULS, transparecendo importantes assimetrias entre diferentes unidades prestadoras e/ou profissionais de saúde. De forma relevante importa apontar a insuficiência de incentivos capitacionais (ao contrário do que sucede com o modelo de incentivo da própria ULSBA) ou adstritos a índices de desempenho. Tendo em consideração o modelo de incentivo concebido e adaptado à realidade da ULSBA, a par do plano de implementação, estima-se que o modelo de incentivos gere: (1) poupanças na perspectiva da ULS (entre 2,5% a 3,5% do orçamento global da ULSBA); e (2) um incremento de remuneração ao nível dos profissionais (entre 5% a 15% do salario base). O supracitado – aparentemente contraditório - decorre da aposta em medidas de custo-efectividade contrastada e um alinhamento entre o modelo proposto e o vigente para o próprio financiamento da unidade, apostando numa clara estratégia de ganhos mútuos. As análises de sensibilidade realizadas permitem conferir a solidez e robustez do modelo a significativas variações em parâmetros chave.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Banco BPI and the reimbursement of contingent convertible subordinated bonds (CoCos)

This case study focuses on the BPI’s recapitalization plan, its causes and the reasons for the early reimbursement of CoCos in June 2014. The need for a capital intervention and the subsequent subscription agreement with the Portuguese Government of €1 500 million Core Tier 1 instruments were the result of a temporary capital buffer for sovereign debt exposures imposed by the European Banking Authority. The capital increase, the positive earnings in 2012 and 2013, the improvements in the sovereign debt crisis, the implementation of Basel III, in addition to the public exchange offer and the conversion of deferred tax assets into tax credits are the main factors for concluding the entire recapitalization operation three years before the deadline.