25 resultados para contrarian investing


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This study aims to analyze how Grupo Soares da Costa, a diversified group centered on construction, behaved in terms of strategy to the current crisis. More specifically, it purposes to understand why Soares da Costa was forced to abandon its strategic plan “Ambições Renovadas”, which was about diversification and internationalization, to decide to focus on it core business. This study uses a SWOT analysis, the examination of the strategic plans and annual reports and the conclusions of two interviews that were carried out. Being the construction sector such a traditional and significant sector to the Portuguese economy, it is important to understand what a company can do to overcome such circumstances. To deal with all the negative circumstances, Soares da Costa should give priority to projects that require low levels of initial capital and diversify geographically to markets with similar characteristics of Angola and Mozambique, where Soares da Costa already excels.

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This study proposes a systematic model that is able to fit the Global Macro Investing universe. The Analog Model tests the possibility of capturing the likelihood of an optimal investment allocation based on similarity across different periods in history. Instead of observing Macroeconomic data, the model uses financial markets’ variables to classify unknown short-term regimes. This methodology is particularly relevant considering that asset classes and investment strategies react differently to specific macro environment shifts.

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This paper sets out the case for the use of impact investing as part of companies’ CSR strategy, demonstrated by the term “corporate impact investing” or “corporate impact venturing”. After an indirect analysis of global practices in corporate impact investment, it considers whether companies are interested in employing this innovative practice in their CSR strategy and how they could be incentivized to do so through direct research methods, with a focus on Europe. A survey answered by 116 company representatives reveals that companies are interested in impact investing yet the majority was not initially aware of its existence; therefore if the right incentives are put into place a new paradigm for CSR may arise

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The clothing sector in Portugal is still seen, in many aspects as a traditional sector with some average characteristics, such as: low level of qualifications, less flexible labour legislation and stronger unionisation, very low salaries and low capability of investment in innovation and new technology. Is, nevertheless, a very important sector in terms of labour market, with increased weight in the exporting structure. Globalisation and delocalisation are having a strong impact in the organisation of work and in occupational careers in the sector. With the pressure of global competitiveness in what concerns time and prices, very few companies are able to keep a position in the market without changes in organisation of work and workers. And those that can perform good responses to such challenges are achieving a better economical stability. The companies have found different ways to face this reality according to size, capital and position. We could find two main paths: one where companies outsource a part or the entire production to another territory (for example, several manufacturing tasks), close and/or dismissal the workers. Other path, where companies up skilled their capacities investing, for example, in design, workers training, conception and introduction of new or original products. This paper will present some results from the European project WORKS – Work organisation and restructuring in the knowledge society (6th Framework Programme), focusing the Portuguese case studies in several clothing companies in what concern implications of global context for the companies in general and for the workers in particular, in a comparative analysis with some other European countries.

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Trabalho realizado sob orientação do Prof. António Brandão Moniz para a disciplina “Factores Sociais da Inovação” do Mestrado Engenharia Informática realizado na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

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Masters Thesis – Academic Year 2007/2008 - European Master’s Degree in Human Rights and Democratization (E.MA) - European Inter-university Centre for Human Rights and Democratization (EIUC) -Faculdade de Direito, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (UNL)

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Based on the report for the “Project III” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment under the supervision of Prof. António B. Moniz. This report was discussed also at the 2nd Winter School on Technology Assessment held at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica Campus, Portugal on December 2011.

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RESUMO - Introdução: A necessidade de gestão da ameaça de uma pandemia obriga à gestão da incerteza absoluta. O desconhecimento científico quanto a uma série de factores tais como, as características dos vírus causadores de infecções, a efectividade das medidas de prevenção e de tratamento, contribuiu para a dificuldade de actuação a vários níveis. Face à evolução da situação epidemiológica mundial no campo da gripe, Portugal reviu e adaptou o seu plano de contingência para a gripe tendo sido homologado, em Janeiro de 2006, um novo plano – Plano de Contingência Nacional do Sector da Saúde para a Pandemia. Objectivos: O presente estudo apresenta como principais objectivos (1) a avaliação das estratégias de intervenção e respectiva implementação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, durante a pandemia da gripe de 2009; (2) a identificação dos pontos críticos na gestão das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, para preparação e resposta a futuras pandemias da gripe e, por último, (3) a definição de um modelo de acompanhamento, de monitorização e de avaliação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, que permita identificar os pontos importantes a ter em conta na implementação de boas práticas de saúde pública, nos diferentes níveis de prestação de cuidados de saúde, tendo como limitação o estado da arte dos sistemas de informação e avaliação, nacionais e internacionais, existentes. Material e Métodos: Para a avaliação das estratégias de intervenção e respectiva implementação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas bem como, para a identificação dos pontos críticos na gestão das respectivas medidas foram consideradas duas perspectivas: a avaliação dos resultados através do Relatório da Pandemia da Gripe e a avaliação dos resultados através das avaliações da OMS e da Euro OMS. É apresentado um modelo de acompanhamento, de monitorização e de avaliação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, a implementar na classe médica que esteve na “linha da frente”, durante a pandemia H1N1 2009 em Portugal, nos cuidados primários, hospitalares e intensivos. Resultados: Deverá existir uma representação dos profissionais de saúde para suporte das decisões de forma a assegurar uma representação alargada não só na preparação mas também, na implementação e na aplicação do Plano de Contingência. O processo de planemanto deverá ter acesso público com possibilidade de participação activa do cidadão na sua implementação. O Plano deve ter a capacidade para se adaptar à situação epidemiológica e, no terreno os exercícios de simulações durante o processo de planeamento são importantes. As orientações técnicas devem ser dinâmicas, práticas, específicas e úteis e, dever-se investir numa cultura de confiança (“right people communicating to right people”). As alterações ao plano devem partir da coordenação, comando e controlo que, nos vários níveis de decisão, devem definir claramente quem toma as decisões. Conclusões: As estratégias para as intervenções ao nível da saúde pública, continuam, no mundo hodierno a desempenhar um papel fundamental e crucial na contenção das pandemias. O modelo apresentado neste estudo procura uma abordagem objectiva para destacar não só, os elementos essenciais de actividades bem-sucedidas, mas também as áreas em que a experiência pandémica sugere que o futuro planeamento deve dar maior ênfase.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.