Three essays on the market for CEOs

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Searching for return: How Google search engine query data can beat the market

Throughout the last years technologic improvements have enabled internet users to analyze and retrieve data regarding Internet searches. In several fields of study this data has been used. Some authors have been using search engine query data to forecast economic variables, to detect influenza areas or to demonstrate that it is possible to capture some patterns in stock markets indexes. In this paper one investment strategy is presented using Google Trends’ weekly query data from major global stock market indexes’ constituents. The results suggest that it is indeed possible to achieve higher Info Sharpe ratios, especially for the major European stock market indexes in comparison to those provided by a buy-and-hold strategy for the period considered.

The launch of integrative fixed video phone in Spain: Technology-market transfer plan

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A marketing plan for Oqtopus in the Spanish market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Europe: A market for the consulting industry

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The optimization of the complaints management system

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Business model: What should be the strategy used by Smart Galp to implement and potentiate its value proposition in the Portuguese market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Internationalization project - Logoplaste in the Turkish market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Internationalization Plan - How can UniPlaces improve its customer acquisition strategy in the London market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

An internationalisation research project into the German market for the Portuguese canned seafood company COFACO.

This project is aimed to analyse the German market of canned fish, in order to find out if there is potential of entering the market for the Portuguese canned seafood company named COFACO. The purpose of this foreign market research, carried out for COFACO, is to highlight the main key aspects of the current German seafood market, founded out through a deep analysis. Moreover, the work project is also aimed to give the company suggestions regarding the Brand, the Product and the Distribution strategy to implement in order to succeed, once considered the opportunity to enter the market.

Fruta com cheiro: The implementation of a new brand of fruit in the Portuguese market

‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’ is an idea for a new brand of fruit that would be introduced in the Portuguese market that would differentiate itself from the brands already in the market and from other non-branded fruit producers. In order to prove that the idea was valid and would have a place in the market, two methods of exploratory research were used – in-depth interviews and focus groups – to understand attitudes and behaviors regarding fruit selection and purchase and also people’s perceptions to ‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’. After these two steps, several considerations were made in relation to preliminary marketing aspects such as brand creation and positioning. There was also a final remark on the fact that this thesis is not a business plan and its purpose was to show how viable would the project be.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.