Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

A lei aplicável ao processo de arbitragem internacional

This paper is the author’s Master’s Thesis. It aims to study the content of lexarbitri, i.e. the relevant law regarding international arbitration. Under both Portuguese law and UNCITRAL model law, the seat’s legal provisions shall be applied at all times. Contrarily, French and Swiss legislations allow parties and arbitrators to apply any arbitration law to international arbitration, whether the seat law or a foreign arbitration law. There is not a sole understanding towards the criteria to determine the legal provisions that shall govern international arbitration. Traditionally, the lexarbitri would correspond to the arbitration law of the seat of the arbitration. The territorialist criteria remains in force under the majority of arbitration laws that the author has consulted. However, it has been criticized by several authorities in international arbitration, who suggest that the arbitration shall be governed by the law of the seat or of the place in which the award is to be enforcement, whichever better grants its enforcement – the cumulative doctrine; or the arbitration shall be governed by a set of provisions that make up the autonomous transnational legal, regardless of the legal provisions of the law of the seat – the transnational doctrine. The author intends to debate the three mentioned understandings regarding the lexarbitriand further explains why the territorialist criteria is the most adequate to the characteristics and demands of international arbitration, to the governing instruments in force and to the need for a useful award.

A lei aplicável ao processo de arbitragem internacional

This paper is the author’s Master’s Thesis. It aims to study the content of lexarbitri, i.e. the relevant law regarding international arbitration. Under both Portuguese law and UNCITRAL model law, the seat’s legal provisions shall be applied at all times. Contrarily, French and Swiss legislations allow parties and arbitrators to apply any arbitration law to international arbitration, whether the seat law or a foreign arbitration law. There is not a sole understanding towards the criteria to determine the legal provisions that shall govern international arbitration. Traditionally, the lexarbitri would correspond to the arbitration law of the seat of the arbitration. The territorialistcriteria remains in force under the majority of arbitration laws that the author has consulted.However, it has been criticized by several authorities in international arbitration, who suggest that the arbitration shall be governed by the law of the seat or of the place in which the award is to be enforcement, whichever better grants its enforcement – the cumulative doctrine; or the arbitration shall be governed by a set of provisions that make up the autonomous transnational legal, regardless of the legal provisions of the law of the seat – the transnational doctrine. The author intends to debate the three mentioned understandings regarding the lexarbitriand further explains why the territorialist criteria is the most adequate to the characteristics and demands of international arbitration, to the governing instruments in force and to the need for a useful award.

O uso da força no Direito Internacional = Use of force in Public International Law

Versão online da Revista Brasileira de Estudos Políticos, Belo Horizonte, nº 107, pp. 149-200, jul./dez.2013

Relatório de estágio no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.

Southern Modernisms. Critical Stances through Regional Appropriations. Conference proceedings

The hegemonic definition of Modernism has been subjected to an intense critical revision process that began several decades ago. This process has contributed to the significant broadening of the modernist canon by challenging its primal essentialist assumptions and formalist interpretations in the fields of both the visual arts and architecture. This conference aims to further expand this revision, as it seeks to discuss the notion of “Southern Modernisms” by considering the hypothesis that regional appropriations, both in Southern Europe and the Southern hemisphere, entailed important critical stances that have remained unseen or poorly explored by art and architectural historians. In association with the Southern Modernisms research project (FCT – EXPL/CPC-HAT/0191/2013), we want to consider the entrenchment of southern modernisms in popular culture (folk art and vernacular architecture) as anticipating some of the premises of what would later become known as critical regionalism. It is therefore our purpose to explore a research path that runs parallel to key claims on modernism’s intertwinement with bourgeois society and mass culture, by questioning the idea that an aesthetically significant regionalism – one that resists to the colonization of international styles and is supported by critical awareness – occurred only in the field of architecture, and can only be represented as a postmodernist turn. (...)

Relatório de estágio curricular no Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria portuguesa

This report is the outcome of an internship that took place in Centro de Arbitragem Comercial da Câmara de Comércio e Indústria Portuguesa and its completion is an essential part of the path towards obtaining the Master’s Degree in Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. This report has been structured in two stages – firstly, the presentation of the Centro de Arbitragem Comercial, focusing on its field of expertise, organic structure, principles and advantages. Then, the description of the activities developed within the Secretariat over the several stages of the arbitration procedure – since the reception of the arbitration requirement in institutional proceedings, terms of reference in ad hoc procedures, through the monitoring of the arbitral tribunal sessions (preliminary hearings, submission of evidence and final allegations) and the notification of the arbitration award. The second stage of this report is related to the description of the functions and powers of the President of Centro de Arbitragem Comercial. Firstly, it defines those powers by analyzing the statutes and rules of proceedings of the Centro de Arbitragem, drawing comparisons between the above mention and the rules of proceedings of others arbitral institutional centres, some of them are international references. The report assesses and describes the presidential powers, such as: configuration and composition of the arbitral tribunal (including arbitrator’s replacements, excuses and refusals); deadline extensions; determination of procedural rules and decision-making on any procedural incidents which arise before the constitution of the arbitral tribunal; definition of arbitration costs and fees; joinder of parties and consolidation of proceedings admission; and appointment of an emergency arbitrator. Lastly, this report analyzes some decisions delivered by the President in the respective institutional procedures which took place in the Centre.