Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Portuguese commercial banking: An assessment of competition in the 1960-2013 period

Strong consolidation is one of the most evident developments of banking markets around the world in recent decades. This change is raising questions on how and to what an extent competition is affected by the expansion of the largest banks. The aim of the present study is to measure the degree of competition in the Portuguese commercial banking market in the long-run, during the period ranging from1960 to 2013, by using the non-structural model developed by Panzar and Rosse. The main findings are that the Portuguese banking system, despite the legal restrictions in place, operated mostly in a market with some degree of competition and, at some points in time, presented some interesting competitive features. More recently, it has evolved into functioning as a cartel.

Concept of Customer Relationship Management as an example of innovation in banking sector

Banks that has introduced CRM system, had to make some difficult changes in their organization in order to become more customer oriented. Beside the pure CRM banks try to adopt other innovative tools related with the core CRM. Some of these solutions are constructed in such a way so that ensured could be also access to the information beside to bank’s organization.

Comments on ‘‘Modeling fractional stochastic systems as non-random fractional dynamics driven Brownian motions

Applied Mathematical Modelling, Vol.33

A coherent approach to non-integer order derivatives

Signal Processing, vol. 86, nº 10

Multi-bit sigma-delta modulators with enhanced dynamic-range using non-linear DAC for hearing aids

15th IEEE International Conference on Electronics, Circuits and Systems, Malta

Non-volatile analysis in fruits by laser resonant ionization spectrometry: application to resveratrol (3,5,4 -trihydroxystilbene) in grapes

Applied Physics B Lasers and Optics, vol.71

FROM NON-PLACE TO PLACE: A STUDY OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC SPACE AS A SPACE OF IDENTITY

Master Erasmus Mundus Crossways in European Humanities

Archaeological roman glasses: comparative characterisation by non-destructive analytical techniques

Dissertation presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the Master’s degree in Conservation and Restoration

Negative non-ground queries in well founded semantics

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Computational Logic

AVTEM NON SVNT RERVM NATVRA. Figurações heteromórficas em mosaicos hispano-romanos

Tese apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Doutor em História da Arte da Antiguidade

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Contribuição ao estudo da mistura néon-azoto a baixas temperaturas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Física

Non-clinical isolates bring new findings on enterococcal virulence

Dissertation presented to obtain the PhD degree in Biology