Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

Contributions towards smart cities : exploring block level census data for the characterization of change in Lisbon

The interest in using information to improve the quality of living in large urban areas and its governance efficiency has been around for decades. Nevertheless, the improvements in Information and Communications Technology has sparked a new dynamic in academic research, usually under the umbrella term of Smart Cities. This concept of Smart City can probably be translated, in a simplified version, into cities that are lived, managed and developed in an information-saturated environment. While it makes perfect sense and we can easily foresee the benefits of such a concept, presently there are still several significant challenges that need to be tackled before we can materialize this vision. In this work we aim at providing a small contribution in this direction, which maximizes the relevancy of the available information resources. One of the most detailed and geographically relevant information resource available, for the study of cities, is the census, more specifically the data available at block level (Subsecção Estatística). In this work, we use Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and the variant Geo-SOM to explore the block level data from the Portuguese census of Lisbon city, for the years of 2001 and 2011. We focus on gauging change, proposing ways that allow the comparison of the two time periods, which have two different underlying geographical bases. We proceed with the analysis of the data using different SOM variants, aiming at producing a two-fold portrait: one, of the evolution of Lisbon during the first decade of the XXI century, another, of how the census dataset and SOM’s can be used to produce an informational framework for the study of cities.

Money for nothing?: The net costs of medical training

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Smart-RBAC

Generally, smart campus applications do not consider the role of the user with his/her position in a university environment, consequently irrelevant information is delivered to the users. This dissertation proposes a location-based access control model, named Smart-RBAC, extending the functionality of Role-based Access Control Model (RBAC) by including user’s location as the contextual attribute, to solve the aforementioned problem. Smart-RBAC model is designed with a focus on content delivery to the user in order to offer a feasible level of flexibility, which was missing in the existing location-based access control models. An instance of the model, derived from Liferay’s RBAC, is implemented by creating a portal application to test and validate the Smart-RBAC model. Additionally, portlet-based applications are developed to assess the suitability of the model in a smart campus environment. The evaluation of the model, based on a popular theoretical framework, demonstrates the model’s capability to achieve some security goals like “Dynamic Separation of Duty” and “Accountability”. We believe that the Smart-RBAC model will improve the existing smart campus applications since it utilizes both, role and location of the user, to deliver content.

Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Firmago S.A. - 2016: A deadline for succession

This paper, “Firmago S.A. - 2016: a deadline for succession”, is a case-based essay on a family business. It aims to provide the necessary tools for readers to best decide upon who should be chosen for the continuity of the family business after July 2016. Along with the case study the reader will have the opportunity to identify two main problems: blurred boundaries and the nonexistence of succession planning. In order to elaborate this case study I conducted several meetings with João Cabral, the current CEO of Firmago, who helped me understand the company’s background and the complexity of the family’s relationships. In order to fulfill the CEO’s requirement, all the real names and surnames of those from Firmago were replaced by fake names.

The accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend

This project characterizes the accuracy of the escrowed dividend model on the value of European options on a stock paying discrete dividend. A description of the escrowed dividend model is provided, and a comparison between this model and the benchmark model is realized. It is concluded that options on stocks with either low volatility, low dividend yield, low ex-dividend to maturity ratio or that are deep in or out of the money are reasonably priced with the escrowed dividend model.

Smart machines in day-to-day financial management:

Starting from Novabase’s challenge to launch in the UK Millennials a personal financial advisor mobile application, this work project aims to build a planning model to frame a business side of a launch strategy for mobile application in similar market and category. This study culminates on the design of SPOSTAC planning model. The created framework is intended to effectively and efficiently plan a launch strategy, being structured based on seven sequential elements: Situation, Product, Objectives, Strategy, Tactics, Action, and Control.

O incumprimento do contrato de crédito ao consumo pelo consumidor

Consumer relations, established between the Consumer and the Creditor, which carry a consequent inequality of contractual positioning between the parties, have been pushing the legislator to adopt more rigid regulations with regard to lending for the purchase of goods or services of consum issues. In this sense, the Decree-Law 359/91 was approved, meanwhile repealed by the Decree-Law 133/2009, which regulates the consumer credit agreement’s regime in the portuguese legal system. Through this contract, the financier makes available to the consumer a certain amount of money, which the consumer must repay, plus the respective remuneration (interest) and other charges, according to a refund plan agreed by the parties. The consumer will be in delay if he breaches this stipulation. In case of default, the creditor, notwithstanding, can choose to wait for the performance by the debtor, promote the loss of benefit of the term or the termination of the contract. From the outset it would seem that, in one way or another, the financier, by imposing a forced shortening of the contract duration initially agreed, will lose the right to remuneration for the provision of capital agreed, but not verified. Nevertheless, unlike presently, the previous regime allowed the parties to rule otherwise, being permitted to agree to the payment of interest of outstanding installments. On the other hand, in the consumer credit contract the principle of freedom of contractual provision of the parties is strongly mitigated by the special legislation, which prevents the waiver of rights by the consumer, and by the regime of general contractual terms, which restricts the freedom of the financier to stipulate the contractual content freely and the freedom of the consumer to negotiate. For all these reasons, associated with the growing need of credit resource to satisfy their needs of consumption, it is confirm the relevance of legislative intervention on consumers protection in the context of hiring credit.

O incumprimento do contrato de crédito ao consumo pelo consumidor

Consumer relations, established between the Consumer and the Creditor, which carry a consequent inequality of contractual positioning between the parties, have been pushing the legislator to adopt more rigid regulations with regard to lending for the purchase of goods or services of consum issues. In this sense, the Decree-Law 359/91 was approved, meanwhile repealed by the Decree-Law 133/2009, which regulates the consumer credit agreement’s regime in the portuguese legal system. Through this contract, the financier makes available to the consumer a certain amount of money, which the consumer must repay, plus the respective remuneration (interest) and other charges, according to a refund plan agreed by the parties. The consumer will be in delay if he breaches this stipulation. In case of default, the creditor, notwithstanding, can choose to wait for the performance by the debtor, promote the loss of benefit of the term or the termination of the contract. From the outset it would seem that, in one way or another, the financier, by imposing a forced shortening of the contract duration initially agreed, will lose the right to remuneration for the provision of capital agreed, but not verified. Nevertheless, unlike presently, the previous regime allowed the parties to rule otherwise, being permitted to agree to the payment of interest of outstanding installments. On the other hand, in the consumer credit contract the principle of freedom of contractual provision of the parties is strongly mitigated by the special legislation, which prevents the waiver of rights by the consumer, and by the regime of general contractual terms, which restricts the freedom of the financier to stipulate the contractual content freely and the freedom of the consumer to negotiate. For all these reasons, associated with the growing need of credit resource to satisfy their needs of consumption, it is confirm the relevance of legislative intervention on consumers protection in the context of hiring credit.

Healthcare- Associated infections: An analysis of costs in a Portuguese Hospital

Hospital-acquired infections (HAIs) delay healing, prolong Hospital stay, and increase both Hospital costs and risk of death. This study aims to estimate the extra length of stay and mortality rate attributable to each of the following HAIs: wound infection (WI); bloodstream infection (BSI); urinary infections (UI); and Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP). The study population consisted of patients discharged in CHLC in 2014. Data was collected to identify demographic information, surgical operations, development of HAIs and its outputs. The study used regressions and a matched strategy to compare cases (infected) and controls (uninfected). The matching criteria were: age, sex, week and type of admission, number of admissions, major diagnostic category and type of discharge. When compared to matched controls, cases with HAI had a higher mortality rate and greater length of stay. WI related to hip or knee surgery, increased mortality rate by 27.27% and the length of stay by 74.97 days. WI due to colorectal surgery caused an extra mortality rate of 10.69% and an excess length of stay of 20.23 days. BSI increased Hospital stay by 28.80 days and mortality rate by 32.27%. UI caused an average additional length of stay of 19.66 days and risk of death of 12.85%. HAP resulted in an extra Hospital stay of 25.06 days and mortality rate of 24.71%. This study confirms the results of the previous literature that patients experiencing HAIs incur in an excess of mortality rates and Hospital stay, and, overall, it presents worse results comparing with other countries.

The role of the intelligence service in preventing and combating transnational terrorism

Outrora dominado por ameaças provenientes de Estados-nação, o cenário global actual, dominado por uma rápida mudança de poderes que nos apresenta uma interacção complexa entre múltiplos actores, onde inimigos desconhecidos, anteriormente bem identificados, é actualmente controlado por grupos terroristas bem preparados e bem organizados. Hezbollah é reconhecido como um dos grupos terroristas mais capazes, com uma extensa rede fora do Líbano dedicada a tráfico de droga, armas e seres humanos, tal como o branqueamento de capitais para financiar o terrorismo, representando um grande foco de instabilidade à segurança. Como instrumento de Estado, os serviços de informações detêm a capacidade de estar na linha da frente na prevenção e combate ao terrorismo. Todavia, para compreender este fenómeno é necessário analisar os actores desta ameaça. À luz desta conjuntura, esta dissertação está dividida em três capítulos principais que visam responder às seguintes questões fundamentais: O que é o terrorismo? Como opera um grupo terrorista transnacional? Será que os serviços de informações têm as ferramentas necessárias para prevenir e combater estas ameaças?

Econet wireless Zimbawe Limited: Building the future

In February 2015, when Econet Wireless Zimbabwe Limited, EWZL, the market leader of the telecommunications sector in Zimbabwe, published the financial results, the management team was worried about the shareholders’ reaction. With over 60% market share in its core business (the voice and SMS market), it has achieved remarkable results due to the great diversification strategy. However, the share price was continuously falling due to exogenous factors that were pressuring margins and threatening future sustainability of the company. EWZL was highly exposed to Zimbabwe’s specific risks and regulatory policies. This case explores both the business environment surrounding the company and the strategic decisions necessary to fight against the economic and political challenges. Students will step into Econet’s obstacles by analyzing the strategies and diagnosing the multiple risk factors affecting the profitability of the firm. Furthermore, they will have to compute the valuation of the firm, facing several challenges of a developing country.

Basel III: The impact of new capital requirements on profitability of Portuguese Banks

This empirical study aims to explore the impact of increased capital ratio requirements, on the ROE of the Portuguese banking sector. The paper employs both a quantitative- and qualitative approach, with the qualitative approach as the main method of research. The method adopted to conduct the qualitative research was semi structured elite interviews with banking executives. Higher capital requirements decrease the ROE of banks in Portugal, but huge impairments charges, macroeconomic factors and increased costs of deposits are clearly the dominant reasons for the reduced levels of ROE the past years. Among the measures taken to increase capital ratios, reduction of RWAs and non-core assets have been the main focus, but the issuance of CoCos is regarded as the most expensive measure due to high interest payments. However, the CoCos will not have any effect on the ROE in the long term. It is difficult to draw any conclusions on the impact of more equity in the balance sheet on the ROE of Portuguese banks, as many banks currently don’t generate enough money to pay back on shareholders´ investments.