Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Understanding impact readiness in Portugal’s social sector and designing a framework for capacity-building for social impact

This project is based on the theme of capacity-building in social organisations to improve their impact readiness, which is the predictability of delivering intended outcomes. All organisations which have a social mission, non-profit or for-profit, will be considered to fall within the social sector for the purpose of this work. The thesis will look at (i) what is impact readiness and what are the considerations for building impact readiness in social organisations, (ii) what is the international benchmark in measuring and building impact readiness, (iii) understand the impact readiness of Portuguese social organisations and the supply of capacity building for social impact in Portugal currently, and (iv) provide recommendations on the design of a framework for capacity building for impact readiness adapted to the Portuguese context. This work is of particular relevance to the Social Investment Laboratory, which is a sponsor of this project, in its policy work as part of the Portuguese Social Investment Taskforce (the “Taskforce”). This in turn will inform its contribution to the set-up of Portugal Inovação Social, a wholesaler catalyst entity of social innovation and social investment in the country, launched in early 2015. Whilst the output of this work will be set a recommendations for wider application for capacity-building programmes in Portugal, Portugal Inovação Social will also clearly have a role in coordinating the efforts of market players – foundations, corporations, public sector and social organisations – in implementing these recommendations. In addition, the findings of this report could have relevance to other countries seeking to design capacity building frameworks in their local markets and to any impact-driven organisations with an interest in enhancing the delivery of impact within their work.

Interpreting change in human-nature and long term social relationships

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

An assessment of the social and economic cohesion aspects of the development of the information society in Europe

Neste trabalho pretende consolidar-se a contribuição portuguesa para o estudo comunitário “Na Assessment of the Social and Economic Cohesion Aspects of the Development of the Information Society in Europe” elaborado por um consórcio europeu liderado pela Nexus Europe e em que intervém o ISEGI- Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação, da Universidade Nova de Lisboa, como parceiro nacional português.

The use of indicators and evidence in governance and policy development of science, technology and innovation

This paper was first presented at the 2012 – EU SPRI Conference “Towards Transformative Governance? - Responses to mission-oriented innovation policy paradigms”, Fraunhofer ISI, June 2012, Karlsruhe

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Catastrophic health care expenditures in Portugal between 2000-2010: Assessing impoverishment, determinants and policy implications

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Integrated care approaches and skills mix policies in Europe

ABSTRACT - Background: Integration of health care services is emerging as a central challenge of health care delivery, particularly for patients with elderly and complex chronic conditions. In 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) already began to identify it as one of the key pathways to improve primary care. In 2005, the European Commission declared integrated care as vital for the sustainability of social protection systems in Europe. Nowadays, it is recognized as a core component of health and social care reforms across European countries. Implementing integrated care requires coordination between settings, organizations, providers and professionals. In order to address the challenge of integration in such complex scenario, an effective workforce is required capable of working across interdependent settings. The World Health Report 2006 noted that governments should prepare their workforce and explore what tasks the different levels of health workers are trained to do and are capable of performing (skills mix). Comparatively to other European countries, Portugal is at an early stage in what integrated care is concerned facing a growing elderly population and the subsequent increase in the pressure on institutions and professionals to provide social and medical care in the most cost-effective way. In 2006 the Portuguese government created the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development (PNICD) to solve the existing long-term gap in social support and healthcare. On what concerns health workforce, the Portuguese government already recognized the importance of redefine careers keeping professional motivation and satisfaction. Aim of the study: This study aims to contribute new evidence to the debate surrounding integrated care and skills mix policies in Europe. It also seeks to provide the first evidence that incorporates both the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and the developments of international literature. The first ambition of our study is to contribute to the growing interest in integrated care and to the ongoing research in this area by identifying its different approaches and retrieve a number of experiences in some European countries. Our second goal of this research is to produce an update on the knowledge developed on skills mix to the international healthcare management community and to policy makers involved in reforming healthcare systems and organizations. To better inform Portuguese health policies makers in a third stage we explore the current dynamics of implementing integrated care in Portugal and contextualize them with the developments reported in the international literature. Methodology: This is essentially an exploratory and descriptive study using qualitative methodology. In order to identify integrated care approaches in Europe, a systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Management and Marketing in Health care titled: Approaches to developing integrated care in Europe: a systematic literature review. This article was recommended and included into a list of references identified by The King's Fund Library. A second systematic literature review was undertaken which resulted in a paper published in the International Journal of Healthcare Management titled: Skills mix in healthcare: An international update for the management debate. Semi-structured interviews were performed on experts representing the regional coordination teams of the Portuguese Network for Integrated Care Development. In a last stage a questionnaire survey was developed based on the findings of both systematic literature reviews and semi-structured interviews. Conclusions: Even though integrated care is a worldwide trend in health care reforms, there is no unique definition. Definitions can be grouped according to their sectorial focus: community-based care, combined health and social care, combined acute and primary care, the integration of providers, and in a more comprehensive approach the whole health system. Indeed, models that seek to apply the principles of integrated care have a similar background and are continually evolving and depend on the different initiatives taken at national level. . Despite the fact that we cannot argue that there is one single set typology of models for integrated care, it is possible to identify and categorize some of the basic approaches that have been taken in attempts to implement integrated care according to: changes in organizational structure, workforce reconfiguring, and changes in the financing system. The systematic literature review on skills mix showed that despite the widely acknowledged interest on skills mix initiatives there is a lack of evidence on skills mix implications, constraints, outcomes, and quality impact that would allow policy makers to take sustained and evidence-based decisions. Within the Portuguese health system, the integrated care approach is rather organizational and financial, whereas little attention is given to workforce integration. On what concerns workforce planning Portugal it is still in the stage of analyzing the acceptability of health workforce skills mix. In line with the international approaches, integration of health and social services and bridging primary and acute care are the main goals of the national government strategy. The findings from our interviews clarify perceptions which show no discrepancy with the related literature but are rather scarce comparing to international experience. Informants hold a realistic but narrow view of integrated care related issues. They seem to be limited to the regional context, requiring a more comprehensive perspective. The questionnaire developed in this thesis is an instrument which, when applied, will allow policy makers to understand the basic set of concepts and managerial motivations behind national and regional integrated care programs. The instrument developed can foster evidence on the three essential components of integrated care policies: organizational, financial, and human resources development, and can give additional input on the context in which integrated care is being developed, the type of providers and organizations involved, barriers and constraints, and the workforce skills mix planning related strategies. The thesis was successful in recognizing differences between countries and interventions and the instrument developed will allow a better comprehension of the international options available and how to address the vital components of integrated care programs.