Primary and hospitalar health care: Building a happy marriage

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Crashes, volatility, and the equity premium: Lessons from S&P 500 options

We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

How premium brands should do to upgrade and move to a luxury status

Premium brands’ upgrade process to luxury is a phenomenon still not well analysed. A literature review allowed assessment of what distinguishes premium and luxury brands. We infered five propositions then tested through a case study research. The research investigated three Portuguese brands that successfully moved from premium to luxury - Claus Porto, Josefinas and Vila Joya. We conclude that acquiring social status is the most essential and difficult feature to deal with, when migrating from premium to luxury as it depends on voluntary and involuntary factors.

Whole life health insurance

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do Grau de mestre em Matemática e Aplicações

O doente com patologia múltipla em medicina geral e familiar: comorbilidade de 4 doenças crónicas

RESUMO: A tese de doutoramento visa demonstrar duas proposições: a comorbilidade de 4 situações de doença prevalentes, hipertensão arterial (HTA), diabetes (DM), doença cardíaca isquémica (DCI) e asma é um assunto importante em Medicina Geral e Familiar e o seu estudo tem diversas implicações na forma como os cuidados de saúde são prestados, na sua organização e no ensino-aprendizagem da disciplina. O documento encontra-se dividido em 4 partes: 1) justificação do interesse do tema e finalidades da dissertação; 2) revisão sistemática de literatura publicada entre 1992 e 2002; 3) apresentação de dois trabalhos de investigação, descritivos e exploratórios que se debruçam sobre a mesma população de estudo, o primeiro intitulado “Comorbilidade de quatro doenças crónicas e sua relação com factores sócio demográficos” e o segundo, “Diferenças entre doentes, por médico e por sub-região, na comorbilidade de 4 doenças crónicas”; 4) conclusões e implicações dos resultados dos estudos na gestão da prática clínica, nos serviços, no ensino da disciplina da MGF e no desenvolvimento posterior de uma linha de investigação nesta área. O primeiro estudo tem como objectivos: descrever a prevalência da comorbilidade entre as 4 doenças-índice; verificar se existe relação entre o tempo da primeira doença e o tempo decorrido até ao aparecimento da 2ª e da 3ª doença, nas 4 doenças; determinar a comorbilidade associada às 4 doenças; identificar eventuais agrupamentos de doenças e verificar se existe relação entre comorbilidade e factores sociais e demográficos. O segundo estudo pretende verificar se existem diferenças na comorbilidade a nível local, por médico, e por Sub-Região de Saúde. O trabalho empírico é descritivo e exploratório. A população é constituída pelos doentes, com pelo menos uma das 4 doenças crónicas índice, das listas de utentes de 12 Médicos de Família a trabalharem em Centros de Saúde urbanos, suburbanos e rurais dos distritos de Lisboa e Beja. Os dados foram colhidos durante um ano através dos registos médicos. As variáveis sócio demográficas estudadas são: sexo, idade, etnia/raça, escolaridade, situação profissional, estado civil, tipo de família, funcionalidade familiar, condições de habitação. A comorbilidade é definida pela presença de duas ou mais doenças e estudada pelo número de doenças coexistentes. O tempo de duração da doença é definido como o número de anos decorridos entre o ano de diagnóstico e 2003. Os problemas de saúde crónicos são classificados pela ICPC2. Nas comparações efectuadas aplicaram-se os testes de Mann-Whitney e de Friedman, de homogeneidade e de análise de resíduos. A Análise Classificatória Hierárquica foi utilizada para determinar o agrupamento de doenças e a Análise de Regressão Categórica e Análise de Correspondências na relação entre as características sócio demográficas e a comorbilidade. Identificaram-se 3998 doentes. A idade média é de 64,3 anos (DP=15,70). Há uma correlação positiva significativa (r =0,350 r=0) entre “anos com a primeira doença”e “idade dos doentes” em todos os indivíduos (homens r=0,129 mulheres r=0,231). A comorbilidade entre as quatro doenças crónicas índice está presente em 1/3 da população. As associações mais prevalentes são HTA+DM (14,3%) e HTA+DCI (6,25%). Existe correlação positiva, expressiva, entre a duração da primeira doença, quando esta é a HTA ou a DM, e o intervalo de tempo até ao aparecimento da 2ª e da 3ª doenças. Identificaram-se 18 655 problemas crónicos de saúde que se traduziram em 244 códigos da ICPC2. O número médio de problemas foi de 5,94 (DP=3,04). A idade, a actividade profissional, a funcionalidade familiar e a escolaridade foram as variáveis que mais contribuíram para diferenciar os indivíduos quanto à comorbilidade. Foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre médicos(c2=1165,368 r=0) e entre os agrupamentos de doentes por Sub-Região de Saúde (c2= 157,108 r=0) no respeitante à comorbilidade. Na partição por Lisboa o número médio de problemas é de 6,45 e em Beja de 5,35. Deste trabalho ressaltam várias consequências para os profissionais, para os serviços, para o ensino e para a procura de mais saber nesta área. Os médicos, numa gestão eficiente de cuidados são chamados a desempenhar um papel de gestores da complexidade e de coordenadores assim como a trabalhar num modelo organizativo apoiado numa colaboração em equipa. Por sua vez os serviços de saúde têm que desenvolver medidas de avaliação de cuidados que integrem a comorbilidade como medida de risco. O contexto social da cronicidade e da comorbilidade deverá ser incluído como área de ensino. A concluir analisa-se o impacto do estudo nos colaboradores e o possível desenvolvimento da investigação nesta área.----------------------------------------ABSTRACT: The PhD Thesis has two propositions, co-morbidity of four chronic conditions (hypertension, asthma, diabetes, cardiac ischaemic disease) is a prevalent and complex issue and its study has several implications in the way care is provided and organised as well as in the learning and teaching of the discipline of General Practice. In the first part of the document arguments of different nature are given in order to sustain the dissertation aims; the second part describes a systematic study of literature review from 1992 to 2002; the third presents two research studies "Comorbidity of four chronic diseases and its relation with socio demographic factors” and “Differences between patients among GPs at local and regional level”; implications of study results for practice management, teaching and research are presented in the last part. The prevalence of the four chronic diseases co-morbidity, the relation of the first disease duration with the time of diagnose of the next index condition, the burden of co-morbidity in the four chronic diseases, the clustering of those diseases, the relation between demographic and social characteristics and co-morbidity, are the objectives of the first study. The second intends to verify differences in comorbidity between patients at local and regional level of practice. Research studies were descriptive and exploratory. The population under study were patients enlisted in 12 GPs working in urban and rural health centres, in Lisbon and Beja districts, with at least one of the four mentioned diseases. Data were collected through medical records during one year (2003) and 3998 patients were identified. The social demographic variables were: sex, age, ethnicity/race, education, profession, marriage status, family status, family functionality, home living conditions. Co-morbidity is defined by the presence of two or more diseases, and studied by the number of co-existing diseases. The time duration of the disease is defined by the number of years between the diagnostic year and 2003. The chronic disease problems are classified in accord with ICPC2. The characterization of population is descriptive. The effected comparisons applied the Mann-Whitney, Friedman, homogeneity and analysis of residuals tests. The Classificatory Hierarchy Analysis was utilized to determine the grouping of diseases and the Regression Categorization and Correspondences Analysis was used to study the relation of socio-demographic and co-morbidity. The median age of the population under study is 64,3 (SD= 15,70). There is a significant positive correlation (r =0,350 r=0)between “years with the first disease” and “patient age” for all individuals (men r=0,129 women r=0,231). Co-morbidity of the four index diseases is present in 1/3 of the studied population. The most prevalent associations for the four diseases are HTA+DM (14,03%) and HTA+IHD (6,25%). Expressive positive correlation between the duration of the first disease and the second and the third index disease interval is found. For the 3988 patients, 18 655 chronic health problems, translated in 244 ICPC2 codes, were identified. The mean number of problems is 5,94 (SD=3,04). Age, professional activity, family functionality and education level are the socio demographic characteristics that most contribute to differentiate individuals concerning the overall co-morbidity. Significant differences in co-morbidity between GP patients at local (c2=1165,368 r=0) and regional level (c2= 157,108 r=0) are found. This study has several consequences for professionals, for services, for the teaching and learning of General Practice and for the pursuit of knowledge in this area. New competences and performances have to be implemented. General Practitioners, assuming a role of co-ordination, have to perform the role of complexity managers in patient's care, working in practices supported by a strong team in collaboration with other specialists. In order to assess provided care, services have to develop tools where co-morbidity is included as a risk measure. The social context of comorbidity and chronicity has to be included in the curricula of General Practice learning and teaching areas. The dissertation ends describing the added value to participant's performance for their participation in the research and an agenda for further research, in this area, based on a community of practice.--------RÉSUMÉ:Cette thèse de doctorat prétend démontrer deux postulats : le premier, que la comorbidité de quatre maladies fréquentes, hypertension artérielle (HTA), diabète (DM), maladie cardiaque ischémique (DCI) et asthme, est un thème important en Médecine Générale et Familiale et que son étude a plusieurs implications au niveau de l'approche pour dispenser les soins, de leur organisation et de l'enseignement/apprentissage de la discipline. Le document comprend quatre parties distinctes : 1) justification de l'intérêt du sujet et objectifs de la dissertation ; 2) étude systématique de publications éditées entre 1992 et 2002 ; 3) présentation de deux travaux de recherche, descriptifs et exploratoires, un premier intitulée « Comorbidité de quatre maladies chroniques et leur relation avec des facteurs sociodémographiques » et un deuxième « Différences entre malades, selon le médecin et la sous région, dans la comorbilité de quatre maladies chroniques» ; 4) conclusions et conséquences des résultats des études dans la gestion de la pratique clinique, dans les services, dans l'enseignement de la discipline de MGF et dans le développement postérieur de la recherche dans ce domaine. Les objectifs de la première étude sont les suivants : décrire la prévalence de la comorbidité entre les quatre maladies chroniques, vérifier s'il existe une relation entre temps de durée de la première maladie et l'espace de temps jusqu'à le diagnostic de la 2ème ou 3ème maladie; déterminer la comorbidité entre les 4 maladies ; identifier d'éventuelles groupements de maladies et vérifier s'il existe une relation entre comorbidité et facteurs sociodémographiques. La deuxième étude prétend vérifier s'il existe des différences de comorbidité entre médecins et par groupement régional. Le travail empirique est descriptif et exploratoire. La population est composée des malades ayant au moins une des quatre maladies chroniques parmi les listes de malades de douze Médecins de Famille qui travaillent dans des Centres de Santé urbains, suburbains et ruraux (Districts de Lisbonne et Beja). Les données ont été extraites pendant l'année 2003 des registres des médecins. Les variables sociodémographiques étudiées sont : le sexe, l'âge, l'ethnie/race, la scolarité, la situation professionnelle, l'état civil, le type de famille, sa fonctionnalité, les conditions de logement. La comorbidité est définie lorsqu'il existe deux ou plusieurs maladies et est étudiée d'après le nombre de maladies coexistantes. La durée de la maladie est établie en comptant le nombre d'années écoulées entre le diagnostique et 2003. Les problèmes de santé chroniques sont classés par l'ICPC 2. Pour les comparaisons les tests de Mann-Whitney et Friedman, de homogénéité et analyse de résidues ont été appliqués. L'Analyse de Classification Hiérarchique a été utilisée pour procéder au regroupement des maladies et l'Analyse de Régression Catégorique et l'Analyse de Correspondances pour étudier la relation entre les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et la comorbilité. Les principaux résultats sont les suivants : les 3998 malades identifiés ont 64,3 ans d'âge moyen (DP=15,70). Il existe une corrélation positive significative (r =0,350 r=0) entre « les années avec la première maladie » et « l'âge des malades », chez tous les individus (hommes r=0,129 femmes r=0,231). La comorbidité entre les quatre maladies chroniques est une réalité chez 1/3 des patients. Les associations les plus fréquentes sont HTA+DM (14%) et HTA+DCI (6,25%). Il existe une corrélation positive significative entre la durée de la première maladie, HTA ou DM, et l'écart jusqu'à l'apparition de la deuxième et de la troisième maladie. Chez les malades, 18.655 problèmes chroniques de santé ont été identifiés et traduits en 244 codes de l'ICPC2. La moyenne des problèmes a été de 5,94 (DP=3,04). L'âge, l'activité professionnelle, la fonctionnalité familiale et la scolarité sont les variables qui ont le plus contribué à différencier les individus face à la comorbilité. Des différences notoires ont été trouvées entre médecins (c2=1165,368 r=0) et entre les groupements régionaux (c2=157,108 r=0) en ce qui concerne la comorbidité. Dans le groupe de patients de Lisbonne, le chiffre moyen de problèmes est de 6,45 et à Beja il est de 5,35. Cette étude met en évidence plusieurs conséquences pour les professionnels, les services, l'enseignement et l'élargissement du savoir dans ce domaine. Les médecins, soucieux de gérer efficacement les soins sont appelés à jouer un rôle de gestionnaires de la complexité et de coordinateurs, de même qu'à travailler dans un modèle d'organisation soutenus par un travail d'équipe. D'autre part, les services de santé doivent eux aussi développer des mesures d'évaluation des soins qui intègrent la comorbidité comme mesure de risque. Le contexte social de la chronicité et de la comorbidité devra être inclus comme domaines à étudier. La fin de cette thèse décrit l'impact de cette étude sur les collaborateurs et le développement futur de la recherche dans ce domaine.

Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Internationalization process of Água das Pedras to China

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Internationalization strategy of Água das Pedras to Dubai

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Internationalization of Água das Pedras to Tokyo (Japan)

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of large-scale mortgage backed security purchases

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A look into the cross-section of industry stock returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

Portuguese average cost of capital

The oldest Portuguese share index still being calculated is the BVL/PSI-General, one which started the daily series on 5/Jan/1988 with a base value of 1000 points. Everyday a single value is computed based on the closing prices of all the shares included in the sample. Also, all corporate events affecting the price of any share beyond market sentiment are taken into account through proper adjustments, either in the numerator or the denominator of the formula. However, for dates before January 1988, there is nothing comparable to this index since the two different series known either never disclosed the methodology adopted to calculate the index or followed solutions not compatible with the above index. The present paper explains the solutions adopted to replicate as closely as possible the methodology of the BVL-General index to the main market of the Lisbon Exchange for the period 1978 – 1987. This is the first estimate of the historical Equity Risk Premium in Portugal above short-term risk-free rate from the re-opening of the market following the Carnation Revolution (and the accompanying nationalizations), to the present. In showing a value of the same order of magnitude found in other countries, the paper invites further studies on the effects of political decisions such as privatizations and joining the European Union.

Vodafone - Kabel Deutschland Merger

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics