Intraday volatility

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Testing for volatility persistence change: The effect of the credit crisis on the Portuguese banks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Crashes, volatility, and the equity premium: Lessons from S&P 500 options

We use a novel pricing model to imply time series of diffusive volatility and jump intensity from S&P 500 index options. These two measures capture the ex ante risk assessed by investors. Using a simple general equilibrium model, we translate the implied measures of ex ante risk into an ex ante risk premium. The average premium that compensates the investor for the ex ante risks is 70% higher than the premium for realized volatility. The equity premium implied from option prices is shown to significantly predict subsequent stock market returns.

What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The hidden value behind capital structure decisions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Treasury bond returns and U.S. political cycles

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Differences in the prices of physical ETF’s and synthetic ETF’s

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Hedging in a discontinuous market: the barrier option

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A distributed platform for the volunteer execution of workflows on a local area network

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Computer Science

Firms and aggregate dynamics

We investigate the role of permanent and transitory shocks for firms and aggregate dynamics. We find that permanent shocks to productivity and permanent shifts in the composition of output explain at least four-fifths of firms’ dynamics. However, these permanent shocks are almost uncorrelated across firms and are therefore less relevant for aggregate dynamics. Transitory shocks, on the other hand, are not very important at the firm level,but they account for most of the volatility of aggregate hours and output, because they are significantly correlated across firms. Finally, we try to make some progress on the interpretation of the shocks.

Risk parity: True versus naive approach

This paper studies the performance of two different Risk Parity strategies, one from Maillard (2008) and a “naïve” that was already used by market practitioners, against traditional strategies. The tests will compare different regions (US, UK, Germany and Japan) since 1991 to 2013, and will use different ways of volatility. The main findings are that Risk Parity outperforms any traditional strategy, and the “true” (by Maillard) has considerable better results than the “naïve” when using historical volatility, while using EWMA there are significant differences.

O emprego de uma força de segurança de natureza militar nas missões de paz

The conflicts currently taking place around the world demand that the international intervention fits the intensity and extent of the threat. This is particularly important in post-conflict scenarios, leading to a greater participation of the Security Forces in those scenarios, in order to foster lasting peace, enforce the order and improve law enforcement services in those regions. The transition from armed conflict to peacekeeping may entail high risk situations and greater instability periods, so-called “intermediate situations”. Accordingly, in the face of persisting high volatility, a robust response is still required post-conflict. Therefore, it is appropriate to deploy Security Forces with military nature and status, the gendarmeries, which have training and response capabilities similar to Armed Forces in peacekeeping operations. Their double facet as police and military forces enables them to perform police duties in high risk and unsafe environments. In light of these features, the Portuguese gendarmerie, Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR), is able to carry out tasks in these scenarios, which it has been doing through individual operatives or larger units. This dissertation focuses on the use of Security Forces of military nature in peacekeeping missions, in particular the Portuguese GNR, relying mostly on the inductive approach and using literature research, document analysis, interviews and statistics. After a brief description of international peacekeeping missions, we describe the contribution of Security Forces of a military nature in such operations. Then we introduce and analyse the GNR, focusing on its deployment in different kinds of peacekeeping operations, from its first participation in 1995 until today. We also report some reactions to the performance of GNR. Finally, we discuss whether there is indeed a unique role for this type of forces in international peacekeeping missions.

Pair trading: Clustering based on principal component analysis

This study focuses on the implementation of several pair trading strategies across three emerging markets, with the objective of comparing the results obtained from the different strategies and assessing if pair trading benefits from a more volatile environment. The results show that, indeed, there are higher potential profits arising from emerging markets. However, the higher excess return will be partially offset by higher transaction costs, which will be a determinant factor to the profitability of pair trading strategies. Also, a new clustering approach based on the Principal Component Analysis was tested as an alternative to the more standard clustering by Industry Groups. The new clustering approach delivers promising results, consistently reducing volatility to a greater extent than the Industry Group approach, with no significant harm to the excess returns.