Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Technological adoption in health care - The role of payment systems

This paper examines the incentive to adopt a new technology given by some popular reimbursement systems, namely cost reimbursement and DRG reimbursement. Adoption is based on a cost-benefit criterion. We find that retrospective payment systems require a large enough patient benefit to yield adoption, while under DRG, adoption may arise in the absence of patients benefits when the differential reimbursement for the old vs. new technology is large enough. Also, cost reimbursement leads to higher adoption under some conditions on the differential reimbursement levels and patient benefits. In policy terms, cost reimbursement system may be more effective than a DRG payment system. This gives a new dimension to the discussion of prospective vs. retrospective payment systems of the last decades centered on the debate of quality vs. cost containment.

Technological adoption in health care

This paper addresses the impact of payment systems on the rate of technology adoption. We present a model where technological shift is driven by demand uncertainty, increased patients’ benefit, financial variables, and the reimbursement system to providers. Two payment systems are studied: cost reimbursement and (two variants of) DRG. According to the system considered, adoption occurs either when patients’ benefits are large enough or when the differential reimbursement across technologies offsets the cost of adoption. Cost reimbursement leads to higher adoption of the new technology if the rate of reimbursement is high relative to the margin of new vs. old technology reimbursement under DRG. Having larger patient benefits favors more adoption under the cost reimbursement payment system, provided that adoption occurs initially under both payment systems.

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. Moniz

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Promoção da saúde depois dos 65 anos : elementos para uma política integrada de envelhecimento

Resumo - A presente tese explora o contributo de uma abordagem de Promoção da Saúde para o desenvolvimento de uma política integrada relativa ao envelhecimento e às pessoas idosas. Propôs-se, em particular, reunir elementos de apoio à fundamentação de medidas e políticas nacionais promotoras da saúde e bem-estar das pessoas de 65 e mais anos em Portugal. ● Delineia-se o enquadramento conceptual - referencial PromS - que clarifica a perspectiva de Promoção de Saúde adoptada. Um entendimento abrangente, positivo e multideterminado da saúde, a par do ênfase nos valores de equidade e de empowerment são alguns dos traços centrais desta abordagem. ● Conjugam-se dados empíricos quantitativos e qualitativos, concorrendo para o diagnóstico da situação de saúde da população de 65+ anos em Portugal: estudo qualitativo explorando as concepções leigas de saúde de pessoas idosas, discutidas em termos de literacia de saúde e de dimensões, determinantes e modos de acção sobre a saúde valorizados; perfil de saúde da população portuguesa de 65+ anos, caracterizando o seu estado de saúde/ bem-estar e factores (individuais e sociais/ambientais) que o influenciam; recorre a indicadores de diversas fontes, incluindo, quando possível, uma dimensão comparativa com outros grupos etários e outros países europeus; análise do padrão e magnitude de desigualdades sociais em resultados e determinantes de saúde das pessoas idosas em Portugal (dados do ESS3); breve análise de medidas/políticas nacionais relevantes para a saúde deste grupo populacional. ● Sugerem-se objectivos e áreas prioritárias para a actuação, bem como algumas estratégias e aspectos do dispositivo de intervenção a contemplar na formulação e implementação de uma política nacional de saúde dos idosos.----------------------------Abstract - The thesis explores contributions of a health promotion approach to the development of an integrated ageing policy. More specifically, it offers several elements in support of policies/measures promoting the health and well-being of people aged 65+ in Portugal. ● A conceptual framework - PromS - clarifies the health promotion approach adopted, stressing a comprehensive and positive understanding of health and its multiple determinants and emphasising the values of equity and empowerment. ● Quantitative and qualitative data are combined to render an assessment of the health situation of the over-65 population in Portugal, comprising: a qualitative study exploring older people’s lay views on health, discussed in terms of health literacy and favoured health dimensions, determinants and actions; a health profile of the Portuguese population aged 65 and over, covering health status and well-being and several determining factors (individual and social /environmental); it uses indicators from several sources, including, whenever possible, a comparison with other age groups and other European countries; an analysis of pattern and magnitude of social inequalities in health outcomes and in the distribution of some of it’s determinants among elderly people in Portugal (ESS3 data); a brief review of some national policies/measures pertinent to this group’s health. ● Objectives and priority areas for action are suggested, along with possible strategies and guidelines on infrastructure and processes regarding the formulation and implementation of a national health policy for older people.

A saúde dos imigrantes em Portugal : que necessidades em saúde? : que utilização dos cuidados de saúde?

RESUMO - Portugal, país de imigração, viu aumentar a população imigrante em 4,56% de 2006 a 2008. Assim, torna-se importante conhecer não só as características socioeconómicas desta população imigrante, mas também quais as suas necessidades em saúde e que utilização fazem dos cuidados de saúde. Este trabalho baseou-se no IV Inquérito Nacional de Saúde realizado em 2005 e 2006 pelo INSA e analisou as populações portuguesa e imigrante nas variáveis de saúde e de utilização dos cuidados. Para a análise do rendimento utilizou-se a Curva de concentração proposta por Wagstaff, Índices de Concentração da Doença, de Utilização e Índice de LeGrand. Os resultados sugeriram melhor estado de saúde da população imigrante relativamente à população portuguesa (estado de saúde auto-reportado, sensação de mal-estar ou adoentado, dias de actividade limitada e dias de acamamento). Nas doenças crónicas (diabetes, asma e dor crónica), a população imigrante apresentou piores resultados na asma. Foram encontrados piores resultados em saúde entre as mulheres nos dois grupos de população, mas também mais frequência de utilização. Os imigrantes revelam também menor acessibilidade a consultas médicas e consumo de medicamentos. A análise do rendimento enquanto factor gerador de desigualdades em saúde permitiu concluir que existem desigualdades na distribuição do rendimento que condicionam tanto a população portuguesa como a população imigrante. Outros estudos poderão ser considerados para análise da saúde da população imigrante, especialmente os que incluam os cidadãos indocumentados, análise das populações por país de nascimento, os anos de permanência em Portugal e as causas de mortalidade. ---------------------------- ABSTRACT - Portugal, a country of immigration, has seen its immigrant population increasing 4.56% from 2006 to 2008. Therefore, it is important to analyse, not only the socioeconomic characteristics of immigrant population, but also their health needs and utilization of health care. This work was based on the IV National Health Survey conducted in 2005 and 2006 by INSA and analyzed the Portuguese and Immigrant populations in the variables of Health and Utilization of Health Services. In order to analyse the income, the Concentration Curve proposed by Wagstaff and the Concentration Index was used. The results suggested a better health in immigrant population compared with Portuguese population (state of self-reported health, feeling sick or ill, days of limited activity and days of lodging). For the variables of chronic diseases (diabetes, asthma and chronic pain), immigrants have shown worse results in asthma. In both groups (Immigrants and Portuguese), women have had more health problems than men. Lower utilization among Immigrants was found in outpatient visits and in prescription drug utilization. In conclusion, it can be stated that the analysis of the income as a generator of health inequalities showed inequalities in the income distribution that affects both Portuguese and immigrants’ health. Other studies may be considered to analyze immigrants’ health especially those that include undocumented immigrants, analysis of populations by country of birth, years of residence in Portugal and the causes of mortality.

Desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde : 1987-2006 : estudo com base nos inquéritos nacionais de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução: Apesar do investimento para garantir universalidade nos cuidados de saúde, estudos em vários países mostram o aumento das desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde. Este estudo analisa estas desigualdades e a sua evolução em Portugal entre 1987 e 2006. Metodologia: Utilizou-se os dados dos quatro Inquéritos Nacionais de Saúde (INS) elaborados até hoje excluindo as pessoas com menos de 35 anos (INS87 – 12126 casos; INS95- 15795 casos; INS98/9- 11726 casos; INS 05/6- 11318 casos). Foram analisados cinco indicadores de saúde (hipertensão, diabetes, asma, bronquite e má saúde autoreportada). O estatuto socioeconómico foi medido pela educação e rendimento. As diferenças entre escalões mediram-se pelos Odds Ratio (OR) obtidos através de regressões logísticas multivariadas. As variáveis de ajustamento utilizadas foram: idade, tabagismo, obesidade e possuir um seguro de saúde. Os resultados foram analisados separadamente por sexo. Resultados: Para todos os indicadores e inquéritos observou-se uma prevalência inferior nos grupos de educação e rendimento mais elevados (OR entre 0,155 e 0,877). No entanto, as desigualdades não foram significativas para o rendimento no caso da hipertensão, diabetes e bronquite, no sexo masculino e em todos os inquéritos. Na educação verifica-se uma diminuição das desigualdades ao longo do tempo na hipertensão, diabetes e Má Saúde, no sexo masculino; no caso do rendimento observa-se o mesmo para a diabetes, asma e Má saúde, no sexo feminino. Discussão: Confirma-se a existência de desigualdades socioeconómicas no estado de saúde favorecendo os escalões mais elevados. A diminuição das desigualdades na maioria dos indicadores analisados contraria a evidência recente.

Desigualdades sociais em saúde nos idosos : um retrato para Portugal

RESUMO - Contexto: As desigualdades sociais em saúde são uma questão central de justiça social. No contexto de forte envelhecimento populacional em Portugal, as desigualdades nos idosos representam um desafio crucial para o futuro, sobre as quais existe pouca evidência. Este estudo pretende investigar a existência de desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde nos idosos, em Portugal. Metodologia: Foram utilizados os dados para Portugal, da quarta vaga do Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. O estudo engloba 2017 indivíduos com 50 ou mais anos. Foram utilizados quatro indicadores de saúde: problemas de saúde, saúde auto-reportada, doenças de longa duração e atividade limitada. Foi utilizado o nível de educação como indicador socioeconómico. As desigualdades socioeconómicas foram avaliadas através de regressões logísticas multivariadas. Resultados: Existem desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde nos idosos favoráveis aos mais educados. Os indivíduos com menor educação estão em maior risco de reportar má saúde (OR=5,5); maior risco em ter problemas de saúde, existindo um gradiente social na Hipertensão Arterial (OR=2,4) e na Artrite (OR=7,0); maior risco de doenças de longa duração (OR=1,6) e maior risco de limitação nas atividades diárias (OR=5,1). As desigualdades socioeconómicas diminuem com a idade. Conclusão: De forma a melhorar a saúde e reduzir as desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde nos idosos, os resultados apontam para a necessidade de implementar medidas no âmbito dos problemas de saúde em que existe um gradiente social, melhorar o nível de educação da população geral e implementar medidas de educação para a saúde, aumentando a literacia em saúde nos idosos mais jovens.

Health care marketing: the theory of planned behavior applied to patients' choise between private and public providers in the portuguese health care system.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Master in Statistics and Information Management.

The patient safety journey in Portugal : challenges and opportunities from a public health perspective

ABSTRACT - Despite improvements in healthcare interventions, the incidence of adverse events and other patient safety problems constitutes a major contributor to the global burden of diseases and a concern for Public Health. In the last years there have been some successful individual and institutional efforts to approach patient safety issues in Portugal, unless such effort has been fragmented or focused on specific small areas. Long-term and global improvement has remained elusive, and most of all the improvement of patient safety in Portugal, must evaluate not only the efficacy of a change but also what was effective for implementing the change. Clearly, patient safety issues result from various combinations of individual, team, organization, system and patient factors. A systemic and integrated approach to promote patient safety must acknowledge and strive to understand the complexity of work systems and processes in health care, including the interactions between people, technology, and the environment. Safety errors cannot be productively attributed to a single human error. Our objective with this paper is to provide a brief overview of the status quo in patient safety in Portugal, highlighting key aspects that should be taken into account in the design of a strategy for improving patient safety. With these key aspects in mind, policy makers and implementers can move forward and make better decisions about which changes should be made and about the way the needed changes to improve patient safety should be implemented. The contribution of colleagues that are international leaders on healthcare quality and patient safety may also contribute to more innovative research methods needed to create the knowledge that promotes less costly successful changes.---- ---------------------- RESUMO – As questões relacionadas com a Segurança do Doente, e em particular, com a ocorrência de eventos adversos tem constituído, de há uns tempos a esta parte, uma crescente preocupação para as organizações de saúde, para os decisores políticos, para os profissionais de saúde e para os doentes/utentes e suas famílias, sendo por isso considerado um problema de Saúde Pública a que urge dar resposta. Em Portugal, nos últimos anos, têm sido desenvolvidos esforços baseados, maioritariamente, em iniciativas isoladas, para abordar os aspectos da Segurança do Doente. O facto de essas iniciativas não serem integradas numa estratégia explícita e de dimensão regional ou nacional, faz com que os resultados sejam parcelares e tenham visibilidade reduzida. Paralelamente, a melhoria da qualidade dos cuidados de saúde (a longo prazo) resultante dessas iniciativas tem sido esparsa e nem sempre a avaliação tem sido feita tendo em conta critérios de efectividade e de eficiência. A Segurança do Doente resulta da interacção de diversos factores relacionados, por um lado, com o doente e, por outro, com a prestação de cuidados que envolvem elementos de natureza individual (falhas activas) e organizacional/estrutural (falhas latentes). Devido à multifactorialidade que está na base de «problemas/falhas» na Segurança do Doente, qualquer abordagem a considerar deve ser sistémica e integrada. Simultaneamente, tais abordagens devem contemplar a compreensão da complexidade dos sistemas e dos processos de prestação de cuidados de saúde e as suas interdependências (envolvendo aspectos individuais, tecnológicos e ambientais). O presente trabalho tem por objectivo reflectir sobre o «estado da arte» da Segurança do Doente em Portugal, destacando os elementos-chave que se consideram decisivos para uma estratégia de acção nesse domínio. Com esses elementos os responsáveis pela governação da saúde poderão valorizar os aspectos que consideram decisivos para uma política de Segurança do Doente mais eficaz. A contribuição de quatro colegas internacionalmente reconhecidos como líderes na área da Qualidade em Saúde e da Segurança do Doente, constitui, por certo, uma oportunidade ímpar para a identificação e discussão de alguns dos principais desafios, ameaças e oportunidades que s

Health expenditures in the OECD: A political economy analysis using structural breaks

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Income and mental health

RESUMO: A enorme carga e o sofrimento provocado pelas doenças mentais no mundo tornam imperioso conhecer melhor os seus determinantes. Combater as desigualdades em saude tornou-‐se uma prioridadade de saúde publica, mas e necessário estabelecer as suas vias causais para ser possível implementar intervenções e politicas efetivas. A literatura cientifica tem sugerido a importância dos determinantes sociais na etiologia e evolucao das principais doenças mentais e do suicidio, com especial enfase no papel da desvantagem social. Ainda assim, o papel dos factores psicossociais na saúde mental, e especificamente o papel do rendimento e da sua distribuição não tem sido investigado no meu pais, Portugal. No meu projecto de investigação proponho‐me a estudar se em Portugal existe uma associação entre as doenças mentais e o rendimento absoluto e relativo. Pretendo usar os dados do primeiro inquérito epidemiológico sobre saude mental realizado em Portugal,um inquérito nacional transversal no domicilio que foi conduzido em 2009, integrado no WHO World Mental Health Survey Consortium. Nesta tese de mestrado apresento os resultados da minha revisão da literatura Sobre a relação entre oestatuto socio-economico e a saúde mental e esboço uma proposta de pesquisa para continuar a investigar estetema. A evidencia que apresento mostra que a exposição aum vasto leque de riscos psicossociais, como o baixo rendimento, a educação limitada e o estatuto ocupacionalbaixo,aumenta a probabilidade de desenvolver problemas de saúde mental.. As diferencas em saúde seguem um gradiente social, com piores resultados de saúde a medida que a posição na hierarquia social diminui. Tambem sumarizo a literatura sobre o papel do contexto na produção de desigualdades em saúde para alem das características individuais. Tem especial interesse o potencial efeito na saúde do rendimento relativo e a importância da distribuição dos rendimentos como determinante de saude. Finalmente, delineio os possíveis mecanismos através dos quais o estatuto socio-economico contribui para as disparidades em saúde.-------------------ABSTRACT: The enormous burden and suffering from mental disorders worldwide makes it imperative to better understand its determinants. Tackling nhealth inequalities has become a public health priority, but it is necessary to establish their causalpathways in order to implement effective interventions and policies. Scientific literature has suggested the importance of social determinants in the aetiology and course of major mental disorders and suicide, with special emphasis on the role of social disadvantage. Nevertheless, the role of psychosocial factors on mental health, and specifically the role of income and its distribution, has not been researched in my home country, Portugal. In my research project I propose to study whether in Portugal there is an association between mental disorders and absolute and relative income. I intend to use data from the first Portuguese Mental Health Survey, a national cross-sectional household survey that was conducted in 2009, integrated in the WHO World Mental Health Survey Consortium. In this masters thesis I present the results of my literature review on the relation between Socioeconomic status and mental health and outline a research proposal to further nvestigate this topic. The body of evidence that I present shows that exposure to a wide range of psychosocial risks, such as low income, limited education, and low occupational status, increases the likelihood of mental health problems. Differences in health follow a social gradient, with worsening health as the position in the social ladder decreases. I also summarize the literature on the role of context in producing health inequalities beyond individual characteristics. Of special interest is the potential health effect of relative income and the importance of income distribution as a health determinant. Finally, I outline the various possible mechanisms for health disparities associated with socioeconomic status.

Health care costs of domestic violence against women – evidence from Portugal

Our main objective is to estimate the additional health care costs to the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) due to domestic violence against women. We collected information through a survey addressed to health care centres’ female users. Both victims and non-victims of violence were inquired. We estimate costs according to five different groups – consultation costs, health care treatment and therapeutic costs, costs of complementary and diagnostic exams, drugs costs and transport costs. The estimations have been split into two perspectives – the NHS perspective (public perspective) and private perspective of inquired women (out of pocket payments). The timeframe of our calculations is one year, referring to all costs generated by domestic violence situations in the last twelve months. Essentially costs were estimated through the product of total number of episodes by the average estimated price per episode. Additionally, for the private costs, we also considered the costs originated by income losses, the opportunity cost of time spent on health care treatments and the work inability caused by sickness. The results suggest that the victims of domestic violence’s additional demand for health care is valued €140 per annum, that is about 22% higher than health care costs of non-victims. These results match those of similar studies for the United States, taking account of per capita differences in health care spending. A large proportion (90%) of the additional costs associated with domestic violence is supported by the NHS, where consultations and drugs are the most important contributors of such costs. Health consequences of domestic violence result from losses in quality of life and worst health status of victims and correspond to additional permanent economic costs of domestic violence episodes.