Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Age constraints on the late cretaceous alkaline magmatism on the West Iberian margin

Cretaceous Research 30 (2009) 575–586

On the Upper Cretaceous age and affinities of Neocyprideis lusitanicus (Ostracoda)

Guernet & Lauverjat (1986) described a new species, Neocyprideis lusitanicus, from sediments deposited near Aveiro, Portugal. For these authors, some associated fossils (Molluscs, planktonic Foraminifera) indicated a Pliocene age. That seemingly was the first record of Neocyprideis in post-Miocene sediments in Europe. A recent study of Upper Cretaceous material from the same region showed an abundant Neocyprideis fauna, associated with Charophyta. These Neocyprideis could be assigned without any doubt to N. lusitanicus. Therefore, N. lusitanicus appears as an Upper Cretaceous species, reworked in much later sediments, not Pliocene but Quaternary, as indicated by the planktonic Foraminifera assemblage. This interpretation is supported by: 1 - the incompatibility of the Neocyprideis (restricted to lacustrine-lagoonal environments) with abundant planktic Foraminifera; 2 - the occurrence of N. lusitanicus with Charophytes and non marine, cretaceous vertebrates but without the same Foraminifera. Neocyprideis lusitanicus is a valid species, clearly different from the other late Cretaceous species (N. coudouxensis and N. murciensis) as well as the Early Miocene described species (N. aquitanica, N. janoscheki).

The Cristo Rei section (Lower Miocene). Distal fluviatile environments in a marine series, plants, vertebrates and other evidence, age

The section at Cristo Rei shows sandy beds with intercalated clayey lenses (IVb division from the Lisbon Miocene series) that correspond to a major regression event dated from between ca. 17.6 and 17 Ma. They also correspond to a distal position (relatively to the typical fluviatile facies in Lisbon), nearer the basin's axis. Geologic data and paleontological analysis (plant fossils, fishes, crocodilians, land mammals) allow the reconstruction of environments that were represented in the concerned area: estuary with channels and ox-bows; upstream, areas occupied by brackish waters where Gryphaea griphoides banks developped; still farther upstream, freshwaters sided by humid forests and low mountain subtropical forests under warm temperate and rainy conditions, as well as not far away, seasonally dry environments (low density tree or shrub cover, or steppe).

Prognostic modelling of breast cancer patients: a benchmark of predictive models with external validation

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores – Sistemas Digitais e Percepcionais pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The most Portuguese village in Portugal: tradition in the age of its technical reproducibility

Ethnographic film is often associated with many European countries’ past as colonial powers and the way these countries used film to depict African, American and Asian territories and populations they once ruled. However, ethnographic film also has a European tradition of its own, closely interlaced with the history of ethnography and anthropology as autonomous sciences and with the desire of scholars to represent local, regional and national cultural identities. This paper presents a Portuguese attempt of this sort dating from 1938, when the authoritarian regime organized a national contest to determine which would be Portugal’s most “authentic” village – something other European countries also did. As part of this metonymic contribution to the construction of Portugal’s national identity as an agrarian utopia, a short documentary was shot, sponsored by the same official propaganda office that had organized the contest. In this film, the viewer’s gaze is made to coincide with the one of the national jury visiting the final selection of 12 villages and to whose benefit local scholars had organized all sorts of colourful peasant traditions hoping to cause the strongest impression. The film makes a strong case for the importance of ethnographic film as a relevant instance not only of the iteration of existing European national cultures, but also of the construction of so many of Europe’s national identities and traditions. Suffice to say that even today the village of “Monsanto”, which won the 1938 contest, is still referred to as “Portugal’s most Portuguese village”.

Le pouvoir royal et les villes portugaises au Moyen Age

pp. 15-28

Epidemiological studies of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage in the post-vaccination era among two risk groups: children and the elderly

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D. degree in Biology/ Molecular Biology

A framework for semantic checking of information systems

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Avaliação da satisfação dos utentes do Hospital de Dia de Especialidades Médicas do Hospital de Egas Moniz

RESUMO: A avaliação da satisfação dos utentes tem tido uma importância crescente na avaliação da qualidade em saúde e na orientação do planeamento e da gestão dos processos e dos recursos da saúde. Os Hospitais de Dia, unidades funcionais que se assumem como uma alternativa moderna à hospitalização tradicional, com maior eficiência e ganhos na qualidade assistencial dos utentes, devem também ser capazes de se auto-avaliar, de forma a detectarem os aspectos menos correctos da sua actuação e a procurar o aperfeiçoamento permanente de todos os aspectos do seu funcionamento. Este trabalho pretendeu avaliar o grau de satisfação dos utentes do Hospital de Dia das Especialidades Médicas do Hospital de Egas Moniz (HDEM), Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Ocidental. O estudo, que obteve parecer favorável por parte da Comissão de Ética e foi autorizado pelo Conselho de Administração do Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Ocidental, foi um estudo descritivo transversal, utilizando uma perspectiva quantitativa. A amostra seleccionada foi de conveniência, constituída pelos utentes que utilizaram o HDEM num período de 14 dias úteis, 3 a 24 de Junho de 2011. As dimensões da satisfação que foram avaliadas foram a satisfação global, a qualidade global, a satisfação relativa aos profissionais de saúde, a satisfação relativa às instalações, a satisfação relativa aos serviços prestados e ainda a recomendação do serviço a familiares e amigos e os aspectos sócio-demográficos dos utentes do HDEM. Foi construído um questionário com 39 itens (38 de resposta fechada e uma de resposta aberta), agrupados em 13 questões. Para a sua construção foram consultados muitos outros questionários destinados a avaliar a satisfação dos utentes com a prestação dos serviços de saúde. O questionário foi submetido à apreciação por investigadores e outros profissionais, aperfeiçoado e pré-testado antes da sua utilização. A validação do questionário incluiu a determinação da consistência interna através do coeficiente alfa de Cronbach, que foi boa ou muito boa, e a determinação da validade, através do método de Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO), que foi boa ou muito boa. A amostra foi constituída por 136 indivíduos, 61,8% dos quais eram do sexo feminino. O grupo etário mais representado foi o das idades entre os 35 e os 44 anos, seguido dos grupo etário entre os 45 e os 54 anos e entre os 55 aos 64 anos. A maioria dos participantes eram casados ou a viver em união de facto, tinham o ensino secundário ou uma licenciatura e eram trabalhadores no activo. Os resultados do estudo permitiram concluir que os utentes do HDEM que fizeram parte do estudo apresentaram níveis elevados de satisfação em todos os aspectos avaliados. Os maiores níveis de satisfação dos utentes disseram respeito à actuação dos profissionais de saúde e os mais baixos, apesar de positivos, tiveram a ver com aspectos muito particulares das instalações físicas do HDEM, como as condições da sala de espera e as instalações sanitárias. Outro aspecto que motivou algumas críticas por parte dos utentes foi o horário de funcionamento, tendo havido sugestões para o seu alargamento.

The compliance function in banking: Perspective and future in the age of globalization

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Web-assisted tobacco intervention in Portuguese : intentions to make behavioural changes and behavioural changes

ABSTRACT - The problem of how to support “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behaviour changes” (BC) in smoking cessation when there is a scarcity of resources is a pressing issue in public health terms. The present research focuses on the use of information and communications technologies and their role in smoking cessation. It is developed in Portugal after the ratification of WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (on 8 November 2005). The prevalence of smokers over fifteen years of age within the population stood at 20.9% (30.9% for men and 11.8% for women). While the strategy of helping people to quit smoking has been emphasised at National Health Service (NHS) level, the uptake of cessation assistance has exceeded the capacity of the service. This induced the search of new theoretical and practical venues to offer alternative options to people willing to stop smoking. Among these, the National Health Plan (NHP) of Portugal (2004-2010), identifies the use of information technologies in smoking cessation. eHealth and the importance of health literacy as a means of empowering people to make behavioural changes is recurrently considered an option worth investigating. The overall objective of this research is to understand, in the Portuguese context, the use of the Internet to help people to stop smoking. Research questions consider factors that may contribute to “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) and “behavioural changes” (BC) while using a Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP). Also consideration is given to the trade-off on the use of the Web as a tool for smoking cessation: can it reach a vast number of people for a small cost (efficiency) demonstrating to work in the domain of smoking cessation (efficacy)”? In addition to the introduction, there is a second chapter in which the use of tobacco is discussed as a public health menace. The health gains achieved by stopping smoking and the means of quitting are also examined, as is the use of the Internet in smoking cessation. Then, several research issues are introduced. These include background theory and the theoretical framework for the Sense of Coherence. The research model is also discussed. A presentation of the methods, materials and of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) follows. In chapter four the results of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) are presented. This study is divided into two sections. The first describes results related to quality control in relation to the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) and gives an overview of its users. Of these, 3,150 answered initial eligibility questions. In the end, 1,463 met all eligibility requirements, completed intake, decided on a day to quit smoking (Dday) and declared their “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC) while a second targeted group of 650 did not decide on a Dday. With two quit attempts made before joining the platform, most of the participants had experienced past failures while wanting to stop. The smoking rate averaged 21 cigarettes per day. With a mean age of 35, of the participants 55% were males. Among several other considerations, gender and the Sense of Coherence (SOC) influenced the success of participants in their IBC and endeavour to set quit dates. The results of comparing males and females showed that, for current smokers, establishing a Dday was related to gender differences, not favouring males (OR=0.76, p<0.005). Belonging to higher Socio-economic strata (SES) was associated with the intention to consider IBC (when compared to lower SES condition) (OR=1.57, p<0.001) and higher number of school years (OR=0.70, p<0.005) favoured the decision to smoking cessation. Those who demonstrated higher confidence in their likelihood of success in stopping in the shortest time had a higher rate of setting a Dday (OR=0.51, p<0.001). There were differences between groups in IBC reflecting the high and low levels of the SOC score (OR=1.43, p=0.006), as those who considered setting a Dday had higher levels of SOC. After adjusting for all variables, stages of readiness to change and SOC were kept in the model. This is the first Arm of this research where the focus is a discussion of the system’s implications for the participants’ “intentions to make behavioural changes” (IBC). Moreover, a second section of this study (second Arm) offers input collected from 77 in-depth interviews with the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) users. Here, “Behaviour Change” (BC) and the usability of the platform are explored a year after IBC was declared. A percentage of 32.9% of self-reported, 12-month quitters in continuous abstinence from smoking from Dday to the 12-month follow- up point of the use of the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) has been assessed. Comparing the Sense of Coherence (SOC) scores of participants by their respective means, according to the two groups, there was a significant difference in these scores of non smokers (BC) (M=144,66, SD=22,52) and Sense of Coherence (SOC) of smokers (noBC) (M=131,51, SD=21,43) p=0.014. This WATIP strategy and its contents benefit from the strengthening of the smoker’s sense of coherence (SOC), so that the person’s progress towards a life without tobacco may be experienced as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. In this sample the sense of coherence (SOC) effect is moderate although it is associated with the day to quit smoking (Dday). Some of the limitations of this research have to do with self-selection bias, sample size (power) and self-reporting (no biochemical validation). The enrolment of participants was therefore not representative of the smoking population. It is not possible to verify the Web-Assisted Tobacco Intervention Probe (WATIP) evaluation of external validity; consequently, the results obtained cannot be applied generalized. No participation bias is provided. Another limitation of this study is the associated limitations of interviews. Interviewees’ perception that fabricating answers could benefit them more than telling the simple truth in response to questions is a risk that is not evaluated (with no external validation like measuring participants’ carbon monoxide levels). What emerges in this analysis is the relevance of the process that leads to the establishment of the quit day (Dday) to stop using tobacco. In addition, technological issues, when tailoring is the focus, are key elements for scrutiny. The high number of dropouts of users of the web platform mandates future research that should concentrate on the matters of the user-centred design of portals. The focus on gains in health through patient-centred care needs more research, so that technology usability be considered within the context of best practices in smoking cessation.

Validation of NASA rotor 67 with openFOAM's transonic density-based solver

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Validation of alternative additives for paste production

Dissertation presented to confer Master Degree in Chemical and Biochemical Engineering